Analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of floods as natural emergencies

Cvetković, V. (2014). Analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of floods as natural emergencies. Archibald Reiss Days (Vol. 2, pp. 371–389). Beograd: Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies.

UDC 351.792

ANALYSIS OF GEOSPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF FLOODS AS NATURAL EMERGENCIES

Teaching Assistant Vladimir Cvetkovic, MSc1

Academy of Criminalistic and Police studies, Belgrade

Abstract: Floods as hydrological emergencies, every day increasingly threaten the safety of people and their property. As such, they intensely attract the attention of researchers in the field of geospatial, technical, natural, information and other sciences, but also experts in the field of emergency who want to better understand it. Bearing in mind that this is a mass phenomenon, which consists of multiple units, most preferred method of scientific research and drawing conclusions about the phenomenology of flood is a statistical method. Guided by this fact, the subject of this paper is a descriptive statistical analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of flood in period from 1900 until 2013 at the global level. Thereby, a statistical study was conducted in such a way that in the first step it was taken raw (unprocessed) data in format of “Excel” file from the international database on disasters (CRED) in Brussels, which were then analyzed in the statistical SPSS data processing. Within the temporal analysis it is examined the distribution of the total number and impacts of floods on an annual, monthly and daily basis, with a special focus on the top 5 countries by the number of different effects (killed, injured, affected, homeless). On the same principle, within the geospatial distribution it is analyzed the total number and consequences of floods by continents and countries, with special emphasis on the top five states in terms of total number and variety of consequences. Therefore, for more effective and efficient protection and emergency response caused by the deleterious effect of flooding, it is needed to comprehensively explore specified natural phenomena, so that the subject of the paper will be form, consequences, temporal and geospatial distribution of manifestation of flooding. In addition, it is important to mention that geospatial and temporal analysis of floods gives meaning, content and value to a comprehensive effort to better understand natural hazards and their effects, in order to timely protect people from them, and in this case, adjust to the flood risk.

Keywords: security, floods, emergencies, statistical analysis, protection and rescue.

INTRODUCTION

Natural emergencies increasingly endanger the safety of modern mankind. Not only that the past decades it is obvious increase in the number, but there is increase in their destructiveness.

2 This results in a higher loss of life, material and non-material damage. Therefore, natural emergencies are events that have a large and tragic impact on society, damaging the common ways of life, hinder economic, cultural, and sometimes political conditions of life and slow the development of the community and require special measures taken by emergency and rescue services in emergency situations.3 It can be said that natural emergencies are the consequences of mutual influence of natural events (geophysical processes and other processes in nature) and human systems (socio – economic, cultural and physical). 4According to Mohamed, natural emergencies can be classified as: natural phenomena of complex physical origin of the Earth’s surface (earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions), natural phenomena of complex physical origin of the Earth’s surface (landslides, avalanches), meteorological/hydrological phenomena (storms, cyclones, typhoons , hurricanes, tornadoes, snow storms, sea surges, floods, drought, heat wave/cold wave), and biological phenomena (invasion – swarms of locusts and bugs, epidemic or infectious diseases – cholera, dengue fever, Ebola, smallpox, meningitis, malaria,

 

  1. Teaching assistant of subject ,,Security in emergency situations”.

  2. Mijalkovic, S., Cvetkovic, V.: Vulnerability of Critical Infrastructure by Natural Disasters. Belgrade, In Procesiding ,,National Critical Infrastructure Protection, Regional Perspective”, 2013, cTp. 93

  3. Cvetkovic, V.: Intervetno-spasilacke sluibe u vanrednim situacijama. Beograd: Zaduzbina Andrejevic, 2013. godine, str. 9.

  4. Mladan, D., Cvetkovic, V.: Classification of Emergency Situations. Belgrade: Thematic Proceedings of International Scientific Conference “Archibald Reiss Days”, Academy of criminalistic and police studies,1-2. march 2013, pp. 106.

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    yellow fever, AIDS, SARS, avian flu).5 They differ from natural hazards, which generate natural emergencies only after endanger people and their material goods. 6More specifically, they occur due to the impact of natural hazards on people, property, infrastructure and natural resources. These events have a large and tragic impact on society, damage the common ways of life, hinder economic, cultural, and sometimes political conditions of life and slow the development of the community. 7In principle, they are of polymorphic character (two instances of the same origin and intensity usually produce different overall effects), accompanied by the phenomenon of parallelism (affecting only certain geospatial areas where significant change living conditions and environment) and have specific, usually massive consequences (social, health, physical and environmental).8

    One of the most important natural emergencies certainly is the flood. Risk of flooding only exists as part of the relationship between water and human habitation (activities). For most of the world’s population, flooding is regular seasonal phenomenon that ensures the growth of crops as it brings danger. Floods are important to the ecology of many areas. They fertilize and irrigate river valleys and fill reservoirs of water. Floods are a normal part of the regime of every river, and flood of water can come from the oceans, large rivers, smaller tributaries, urban runoff, snowmelt, and dam or levee failure.9 Flooding can be caused by weather conditions, away from areas affected by floods.

    It can be said that the flood as a natural emergency is difficult to define. It can be said partly because there are no natural boundaries in the global geographic space, and the fact that the threshold values of flood are selected based on human criterion, which may varies. Flooding is usually defined as a result of overflow of the river over its levees and spreading over nearby valley.10 The term flood can be defined as the water on the earth, which is not usually submerged.11 This can be extended to a large increase in the amount of water in areas such as wetlands and lakes. Flooding is a natural part of the process, but only becomes a “threat” when happens a hazard or an impending danger or harm to humans, their activities or the things that

     

  5. Mohamed, S. I.: Disaster typesDisaster Prevention and Management, Vol. 16, Iss: 5, 2007, str. 706.

  6. Wisner, B.: At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters. London: Routledge, 2004. year, str. 134. There is a significant difference between emergency, hazard and risk. The risk is the result of a combination of hazards, conditions, vulnerabilities and insufficient capacities or measures to reduce the potential negative consequences of risk. However, when hazard or threat becomes reality, ie. when it materializes, the risk becomes an emergency. For example, a river valley may be prone to flooding. The risk exists only if the affected comunity or assets are located in the area that is prone to flooding. If the risk materializes, ie. the flood actually occurs, it will cause a loss in the affected population or property, creating an emergency situation. Edward, B.: Natural Hazards, Second Edition. Cambridge, University Press, 2005, str. 103.

  7. According to the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction, these are “serious disturbances in the functioning of a community or society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the capabilities of the affected community to deal with them using their own resources”. See for more details: UN – ISDR United Nations – International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2004, p. 5. Similarly, according to the UN Center for Human Settlements Research “Natural emergency situation is the interplay of natural hazards, caused in most cases by sudden and unexpected natural events, and the conditions of vulnerability, which cause serious losses to human and his environment (built and natural). These losses create suffering and chaos in the normal frames of life, socio-economic, cultural, and sometimes political. Such situations require external assistance from international and national institutions, as a contribution to independent and joint responses. See for more details: UNCHS (United Nations Center for Human Settlements) (1994 ) Sustainable Human Settlements in an urbanizing World, including Issues Related to land policies and mitigation of natural disasters. 15th Session of the Commission on Human Settlement. Unpublished Draft Paper Theme.

  8. Jakovljevic, V., Darmati, S.: Civilna zastita u Saveznoj Republici Jugoslaviji, Beograd: Studentski trg, 1998, str. 35

  9. For example, in the geographic space of Serbia, precipitation in July, 1999 caused flooding on smaller rivers in Great and Western Morava river basin (where the high water on some tributaries occurred 2-3 times in a period from 10 to 20 days), and in December of the same year, there have been high water in Drina and Sava river basins. On Tisza and Tamis rivers in March and April, 2000, the floods have occurred due to the rapid melting of snow and the simultaneous occurrence of precipitation. In June 2001 again a large amount of rainfall caused flooding in the Drina river (the Ljubovidja, Jadra, Stiri). In April 2005, the simultaneous melting snow and intense rainfall caused the flooding of the Tamis, Tisza and Danube rivers, right tributary of the Drina and South Morava. Milojkovic, B., Mladan, D.: Adaptivno upravljanje zastitom i spasavanje od poplava i bujica – prilagodavanje poplavnom rizku. Bezbednost, Year LII, 1/2010., str. 175.

  10. Marlene, B., Carmichael, R.: Notable Natural Disasters. California: Salem Press, Inc, 2007., 122.

  11. Schumann, A.: Flood Risk Assessment and Management. Bochum, Germany: Springer, 2001., 43.

    they value.12 They can be caused by climatic conditions and factors.13 Climatic conditions include heavy rains from tropical storms and hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, cyclones, frontal winds, rapid melting of snow and ice. Climatic factors consist of tides and storms in coastal areas. Other factors that can cause floods have earthquakes, landslides and dam failures. Conditions which increase flooding include fixed basin characteristics such as size, shapes, slope, and elevation. Variable characteristics of the basin are water storage capacity and portability in soil and rocks, soil infiltration rate and extent of wetlands and lakes. Channel characteristics such as length, slope, roughness and shape, can also enhance the flood, as can the human effects of river regulation: joint use of groundwater, transfer among watersheds, wastewater discharge, water diversion and irrigation, urbanization, dams and land drainage. Generally, there are the following types of floods: floods caused by rain and melting snow, icy floods; flooding due to the coincidence of high water levels, flash floods, and floods caused landslides, floods caused by dam failure, etc.

    Because of an ability of a flood to cause a lot of damage to human health, material and cultural resources and the environment, knowledge of causes, frequency, regularities of geospatial and temporal distribution and the possibility of the return of these phenomena would be very useful for flood control, and for the organization and implementation of protection and rescue measures based on the concept of “adjustment to flood risk.”14 It is, therefore, hydrologists use statistical methods for calculating authoritative probability of high water, or in order to get an assessment of the probability that a flood of a certain size will happen in a given year, one in a hundred, five hundred or thousand.15

    Since this is a really extensive matter, the subject of this work will be analysis of forms of expression, number, temporal and geospatial distribution of floods only. Phenomenology of other types of natural emergencies will be the subject of future research.

    METHODS

    The survey was conducted based on extensive material of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). It was realized in such way, as in the first step the raw

    • unprocessed data in format of “excel” file with 25,552 registered events, were taken from the center (www.emdat.be). 16 The download is made 5/6/2013. Subsequently, the data were processed by the program for statistical analysis of data, “IBM SPSS Advanced Statistics 20.0”. Frequencies and percentages of the considered variables were calculated by program operations. Also, tables and charts were made by the program made, which were further processed in, “MS Word 2013”. Results of processing of quantitative data are displayed text, tables and graphics in the form of cartographic visualization by method of thematic mapping – volume cartography. 17 The results of processing these data are displayed in text, tables and graphics.

      The meanings of terms that are used in the paper are: the death toll – the number of people with confirmed death and the number of missing, apparently dead people, the number of injuries

    • the number of people suffering from psychological injury, or trauma requiring immediate medical attention; the number of affected – the number of people requiring immediate assistance during and after a disaster, including deployed or evacuated people, homeless – the number of people who need emergency accommodation because they ran out of his house, the affected toll – a summary of injured, homeless and affected, the total damage – a global picture of the economic impact of flooding, given in U.S. dollars.
  12. Stoltman, J., Lindston, J., Dechano, L.: International Perspectives on Natural Disasters: Occurrence, Mitigation, and Consequences. The Netherlands.: Published by Springer .O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, 2007., str. 78.

  13. Proverbs, D., Soetanto, R.: Flood Damaged Property A Guide to Repair. Oxvord: Blackwell Publishing Ltd.,2004, str. 31.

  14. Milojkovic, B., Mladan, D.: Isto: str. 172.

  15. Rao, A., Hamed, K.: Flood frequvencyanal analysis. Washington: CRC Press, 2000, pp. 24.

  16. Natural event will be recorded in the database as a natural emergency situation if it the following criteria are met: there are ten or more people killed, 100 or more people affected, declared an emergency and call for international assistance.

  17. Filipovic, I., Milojkovic, B.: Osnovi kartografije sa topografijom, Nis: Prirodno-matematicki fakultet

    • Departman za geografiju, 2010., str. 165.

    ANALYSIS OF GEOSPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF FLOODS

    To understand geospatial and temporal distribution of floods it is important to know the basic qualitative and quantitative indicators of natural emergencies at the global level and in the long run. Namely, in the period from 1900 to 2013, there were 25,552 natural emergencies. Most of them were hydrological and meteorological, geophysical, climatic and biological disasters.18 Therefore, in this period there were 9,557 hydrological emergencies. They killed 13,987,140, 2,655,118 were injured, 6,891,172,180 were affected, 185 223 183 homeless. Therefore, the total affected were 7,079,050,481 people, while the total damage amounted to 1,200,003,042

    U.S. dollars. Also, looking by the number of events, hydrological emergencies are in the first place, then meteorological, geophysical, climatic and biological in the end (Table 1).

     

    killed

    injured

    affected

    Meteorological

    7149

    2766859

    2641153

    1742924832

    105054916

    1850620901

    1872273246

    Geophysical

    3037

    5331007

    5177147

    309279694

    45930226

    360387067

    1522543792

    Hydrological

    9557

    13987140

    2655118

    6891172180

    185223183

    7079050481

    1200003042

    Biological

    2820

    19152311

    968153

    90325323

    0

    91293476

    460264

    Climatological

    2989

    23772449

    3779656

    4532945549

    903962

    4537629167

    471765608

    Total

    25552

    65009766

    15221227

    13566647578

    337112287

    13918981092

    5067045952

     

    Disaster sub- group

    Occurre nce

    No. of people

    No. of people

    No. of people

    Homeless

    Total affected

    Estimated damage ($)

    Table 1. Overview of the world’s natural disasters in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

    At the annual level was happening 85 annual, 7 monthly and 0.6 per day hydrological emergency situations. Generally speaking, after atmospheric, hydrological emergencies are the most common (Table 2).

    Disaster sub-group

    Annual

    Month

    Day

    Atmospheric

    90

    7.5

    0.25

    Geophysica

    27

    2

    0.07

    Hydrological

    85

    7

    0.6

    Biological

    24

    2

    0.06

    Total

    226

    18.5

    0.98

    Table 2. Overview of natural emergencies in the period from 1900 to 2013, classified by annual, monthly and daily distribution. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED

    International Disaster Database.

    In percentage terms, of total number of natural emergencies, due to the consequences of hydrological emergencies, 54.94% of people were homeless, 50.79% were affected, 21.52% died, and 17.44% were injured (Figure 1).

     

  18. Cvetkovic, V., Mijalkovic, S.: Spatial and Temporal distribution of geophysical disasters. Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts and Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijic, Journal of the Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijic” 63/3, pp. 346.

     

    Figure 1. Share of the consequences of natural emergencies to people in period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

    Also, to understand these issues it is important to bear in mind the results of previously conducted and published research. After examining the large number of foreign papers about floods, it can be concluded that a large number of authors dealt with the problem of geospatial and temporal distribution of floods: Chow19 (1964), Yevjevich20 (1972), Haan21 (1977), Kite22 (1977), Singh23 (1987), Potter24 (1987), Bobee i Ashkar25 (1991), McCuen26 (1993) and so on . They are all in different ways wanted to examine the frequency of their occurrence. In the period between 1946-2006 in geographic space of Serbia the following historic floods happened: 5/14/1965 and 5/14/1979 on the West Morava river, 11/19/1979 on the Ibar river, 6/26 and 6/27/1988 on the Luznica river (left tributary of the Vlasina river) and the Vlasina river and 4/17/1996 on the Ribnica river.27 The research results undoubtedly point to the fact that floods occur every day around the world. The causes of their occurrence are varied. Based on the collected and processed data on geospatial distribution from specified base it can be said that the highest number of floods in period from 1900 to 2013occurred in Asia with 3427 floods, and the lowest number in Oceania with 258. Bearing in mind all the continents, by number of flooding in the first place is Asia, then America, Africa, Europe and Oceania in the end (Table 3).

    Continent

    Occurrence

    No. of people

    No. of people

    No. of people

    Homeless

    Total affected Estimated

    damage ($)

    killed

    injured

    affected

    Africa

    1669

    50557

    55947

    119555483

    11910538

    131521968

    14630498

    America

    1943

    208047

    88300

    165740994

    7133925

    172963219

    195930880

    Asia

    3427

    13589418

    2438303

    6560968177

    153660678

    6717067158

    722929790

    Europe

    1034

    18148

    51712

    23873756

    3835628

    27761096

    220657128

    Oceania

    258

    1016

    184

    2126518

    214970

    2341672

    28954750

    Total

    8331

    13867186

    2634446

    6872264928

    176755739

    7051655113

    1183103046

    Table 3. Overview of the total number and impacts of floods to people from 1900 to 2013, sorted by continents. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

     

  19. Chow, T.: Handbook of Applied Hydrology. New York: McGraw- Hill, 1964

  20. Yevjevich, V.M.: Statistical and Probability Analysis of Hydrologic Data, Part II, Regression and Correlation Analysis, Sec. 8-II, Handbook of Applied Hydrology, V.T. Chow, editor-in-chief, McGraw-Hilll Book Company, New York, NY, 1964.

  21. Haan, T.: Statistical Methods in Hydrology. Iowa State University Press, Ames, IA, 1977.

  22. Kite, G.W.: Frequency and Risk Analysis in HydrologyWater Res. Publications, Fort Collins, CO, 1977.

  23. Singh, V., Singh, K.: Parameter Estimation for TPLN Distribution for Flood Frequency Analysis, Water Resources Bulletin, Vol. 23, No. 6, pp. 1185-1191.

  24. Potter, W.:Research on Flood Frequency Analysis, 1983-1986, Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 25, No. 2, 1987., pp. 113-118.

  25. Bobée, B., Ashkar, F.: The Gamma Family and Derived Distributions Applied in Hydrology, Water Resources Publications, Littleton, CO, 1991.

  26. McCuen, H.:. Microcomputer Applications in Statistical Hydrology, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1993.

  27. Milojkovic, B., Mladan, D.: Isto: str. 176.

     

    41.14%

     

    23.32%

     

    20.03%

     

    12.41%

     

    3.10%

     

    45.00%

    40.00%

    35.00%

    30.00%

    25.00%

    20.00%

    15.00%

    10.00%

    5.00%

    0.00%

    Africa America Asia Europe Oceania

    Figure 2. Percentage overview of the total number of floods in period from 1900 to 2013, sorted by continent. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster

    Database.

     

    Picture 1. Global view of distributions of floods in the period from 1985 to 2003.28

    In percentage terms, in the period from 1900 to 2013, Asia had 41.14%, America 23.32%, 20.03% Africa, Europe 12.41% and Oceania 3.10% of floods. Therefore, if we take into account the average value of flood occurrence, it can be concluded that in Asia, they occur above average, compared with Europe and Oceania, where the number is below the average. Of course, in Africa and the United States they occur within certain average in relation to the total number of floods in the world (Figure 2 and Picture 1).

     

  28. Dilley, M, Robert, C., Uwe D., Arthur L., Margaret A.: Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2005, str. 21.

     

    Figure 3. Percentage overview of the consequences of flooding to people in the period from 1900 to 2013, classified by continent. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED

    International Disaster Database.

     

    Picture 2. The cartographic representation of the total number and impacts of floods in the world in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED

    International Disaster Database.

    In comparison to percentages of flood events, it is clear that the highest percentage of the killed (98%), injured (92.55%), affected (95.47%) and homeless (86.93%) has remained in Asia. While on the other hand, all percentages were the lowest in Oceania (Figure 3 and Figure 2).

    Country

    Occurrence

    No. of

    people killed

    No. of

    people injured

    No. of

    people affected

    Homeless

    Total affected

    Estimated damage ($)

    Avganistan

    499

    8010

    2256

    2376836

    121390

    2500482

    792000

    Albanija

    452

    38

    0

    273968

    0

    273968

    49346

    Algerija

    318

    9728

    2410

    1272300

    267340

    1542050

    3087834

    Samoa

    309

    12

    6

    0

    0

    6

    100000

    Angola

    264

    975

    94

    2170574

    223580

    2394248

    20000

    Table 4. Top five states by the floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM- DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

    During the period from 1900 to 2013, the highest number of floods happened in Afghanistan

     

    499. Thus, by the number of floods in the first place is Afghanistan then Albania with 452, Algeria 318, Samoa 309 and Angola 264 (Table 4).

    Country Occurrence

    No. of people

    No. of people

    killed

    injured

    Kina

    70

    13196986

    1653752

    3845305864

    86704258

    3933663874

    372685592

    lndija

    32

    122416

    3588

    1598677710

    32178000

    1630859298

    72092376

    Banglades

    130

    104466

    204784

    626545924

    8510724

    635261432

    24076800

    Gvatemala

    38

    81816

    760

    1786398

    8540

    1795698

    360826

    Venecuela

    2

    60792

    6496

    1463832

    330556

    1800884

    6994252

     

    No. of people Homeless Total affected affected

    Estimated damage ($)

    Table 5. Top five states by the number of the killed by floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

    During the period from 1900 to 2013, the highest number of the killed due to the impacts of floods was in China 13.196.986. Thus, by the number of the killed due to the impacts of floods in the first place is China, India 122 416, Bangladesh 104 466 81 816, Guatemala and Venezuela

    60 792 (Table 5).

    Country

    Occurrence

    No. of people

    killed

    No. of people

    injured

    No. of people

    affected

    Homeless

    Total

    affected

    Estimated

    damage ($)

    Kina

    70

    13196986

    1653752

    3845305864

    86704258

    3933663874

    372685592

    lndonezija

    32

    12885

    510394

    17518374

    356060

    18384828

    11302094

    Banglades

    130

    104466

    204784

    626545924

    8510724

    635261432

    24076800

    Sudan

    4

    1546

    38076

    9389204

    2906960

    12334240

    1102400

    El Salvador

    55

    1356

    36000

    822684

    0

    858684

    2563000

    Table 6. Top five states by the number of the injured in floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

    During the period from 1900 to 2013, the highest number of the killed due to the impacts of floods was in China 1,653,752. Thus, by the number of the injured due to the consequences of the floods in the first place is China, then Indonesia 510 394, Bangladesh 204 784, Sudan 38 076

     

    and El Salvador 36 000 (Table 6).

    killed

    injured

    pogodenih

    affected

    damage ($)

    Kina

    70

    13196986

    1653752

    3845305864

    86704258 3933663874

    372685592

    lndija

    32

    122416

    3588

    1598677710

    32178000 1630859298

    72092376

    Banglades

    130

    104466

    204784

    626545924

    8510724 635261432

    24076800

    Pakistan

    12

    31854

    17466

    138922014

    8468830 147408310

    34936356

    Tajland

    4

    7668

    7382

    103461510

    322966 103791858

    89602816

     

    Country Occurrence No. of people

    No. of people

    Broj

    Homeless Total

    Estimated

    Table 7. Top five states by the number of the affected by floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

    During the period from 1900 to 2013, the highest number of the affected due to the impacts of floods was in China 3.845.305.864. Thus, by the number of the injured due to the consequences of the floods in the first place is China, then India 1.598.677.710, Bangladesh 626.545.924, Pakistan 138.922.014 and Thailand 103 461 510 (Table 7).

    Country Occurrence No. of people

    No. of people

    No. of people Homeless Total Estimated

    killed

    injured

    affected

    affected

    damage ($)

    Kina

    70

    13196986

    1653752

    3845305864

    86704258

    3933663874

    372685592

    lndija

    32

    122416

    3588

    1598677710

    32178000

    1630859298

    72092376

    Banglades

    130

    104466

    204784

    626545924

    8510724

    635261432

    24076800

    Pakistan

    12

    31854

    17466

    138922014

    8468830

    147408310

    34936356

    Sri Lanka

    4

    2592

    2183

    18562323

    7733748

    26298254

    1961128

    Table 8. Top five states by the number of the homeless by floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

     

    During the period from 1900 to 2013, the highest number of the homeless due to the impacts of floods is in China 86.704.258. Thus, by the number of the injured due to the consequences of the floods in the first place was in China, then India 32.178.000, Bangladesh 8.510.724, Pakistan 8.468.830 and Sri Lanka 7.733.748 (Table 8).

    injured

    Kina

    70

    13196986

    1653752

    3845305864

    86704258

    3933663874

    372685592

    SAD

    2

    5582

    720

    24222342

    70600

    24293662

    112822520

    Tajland

    4

    7668

    7382

    103461510

    322966

    103791858

    89602816

    lndija

    32

    122416

    3588

    1598677710

    32178000

    1630859298

    72092376

    ltalija

    30

    2134

    424

    2736300

    2996300

    5733024

    46711200

     

    Country Occurrence

    No. of people killed

    No. of people

    No. of people Homeless Total affected Estimated damage ($) affected

    Table 9. Top five states by the assessed value of property damage by floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster

    Database.

    During the period from 1900 to 2013, the highest assessed value of property damage due to the impacts of floods is China 372.685.592. Thus, by assessed value of property damage due to the consequences of the floods in the first place are China, then USA 112.822.520, Thailand 89.602.816, India 72.092.376 and Italy 46.711.200 (Table 9).

    ANALYSIS OF TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF FLOODS

     

    A number of researchers every day have fear of confirming the fact that the number of natural emergencies increases every year. In order to eliminate uncertainty, it is important to consider their temporal distribution. The aim of such analysis is certainly influencing certain prognostic plans. That is why it is very important to perform temporal analysis of flooding. Accordingly, in the period from 1900 to 2013 8,331 floods happened, with 13,867,186 of the killed, 2,634,446 of the injured, 6,872,264,928 of the affected and 176 755 739 of the homeless. Observed annually, it can be said there were 74, 6 floods per month, 0.20 floods per day (Table 10).

    people killed

    injured

    affected

    damage ($)

    Flood

    8331

    13867186

    2634446

    6872264928

    176755739

    7051655113

    1183103046

    Yearly

    74

    122718

    23313

    60816503

    1564210

    62404027

    10469938

    Monthlz

    6

    10226

    1942

    5068041

    130350

    5200335

    872494

    Daily

    0.20

    340

    65

    168934

    4345

    173344

    29083

     

    Type Occurrence No. of

    No. of people

    No. of people

    Homeless Total affected Estimated

    Table 10. Overview of the total number and impacts of floods in the period from 1900 to 2013, with reference to the annual, monthly and daily distribution. Source of data: EM-DAT:

    The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

     

    Figure 4. Percentage overview of the total number of floods in period from 1900 from 2013 year, classified by decades. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International

    Disaster Database.

    Up until 1980 the floods have occurred within a certain average of 10%. After this period it can be noticed a significant increase in the number of floods, and the culmination is the period since 2000 to 2013 when it happened 49.85% of the total number of floods for the period. The minimum number of floods occurred in the period from 1900 to 1910 and it is 0.17% (Figure 4).

     

    Figure 5. Percentage overview of the total number of floods in period from 1900 to 2013, classified by twenty years periods. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International

    Disaster Database.

    In the periods of twenty years, the largest number of earthquakes occurred in the period from 2000 to 2013 (49.85%) and lowest in the period from 1900 to 1920 (0.26%) (Figure 5).

     

    Figure 6 Percentage overview of the total number of floods in period from 1900 to 2013, classified into two periods: from 1900 to 1950 and from 1950 to 2013. Source of data: EM-

    DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

    Based on the graph shown above, one can clearly notice that most of the flooding occurred in the period since 1950 to 2013 and it was 98.73%, in contrast to the period from 1900 to 1950 (1.27%) (Figure 6).

    Year

    Occurrence

    No. of No. of people No. of people Estimated people injured affected Homeless Total affected damage ($)

    killed

    1900-1910

    14

    4014

    0

    0

    0

    0

    960000

    1910-1920

    8

    200000

    0

    7270000

    0

    7270000

    40000

    1920-1930

    20

    8564

    0

    12000

    4000

    16000

    100460

    1930-1940

    24

    8723180

    0

    20060000

    7204000

    27264000

    3676000

    1940-1950

    40

    209430

    0

    20264000

    0

    20264000

    2030000

    1950-1960

    156

    4136934

    0

    5917768

    509000

    6426768

    3358000

    1960-1970

    358

    50126

    250346

    133860212

    6690926

    140801484

    12606358

    1970-1980

    542

    115990

    80466

    427578276

    22108188

    449766930

    17180318

    1980-1990

    1090

    86676

    173416

    923911336

    15626140

    939710892

    93326142

    1990-2000

    1926

    198522

    1634260

    2828933946

    97143650

    2927711856

    466065314

    2000-2013

    4153

    133750

    495958

    2504457390

    27469835

    2532423183

    583760454

    Table 11. Overview the total number and consequences of flooding to people and property in the period from 1900 to 2013, classified by decades. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/

    CRED International Disaster Database.

    During the period from 1900 to 2013, the largest number of 4153 floods occurred in the period since 2000 to 2013 and a minimum of 8 floods from 1910 to 1920. The largest number of the killed were from 1930 to 1940 872,318 and the lowest one, 4014, occurred in the period from 1900 to 1910. By the number of the affected due to the consequences of floods in the period from 1900 to 2000 the highest number was 2,828,933,946 and minimum without consequences from 1900 to 1910. In the period from 1900 to 2000, there was the highest number of the homeless, 97,173,650 (Table 11).

     

    Figure 7. Percentage overview of the consequences of flooding to people and property in the period from 1900 to 2013, classified by decades. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/

    CRED International Disaster Database.

    In percentage terms, most people were killed in the period from 1930 to 1940 (62.91%) and the lowest percentage from 1900 to 1920 (1.47%). In the period from 1990 to 2000 the highest number was the injured (62.03%), affected (41.16%) and homeless (54.96%). The lowest percentage was injured (0%) in the period 1900-1960, the affected in the period from 1900 to 1910 (0%), and the homeless in the period from 1900 to 1930 (0%) (Figure 7).

    Year Occurrence No. of

    No. of people

    No. of people Homeless Total affected Estimated

    people killed

    injured

    affected

    damage ($)

    1900-1920

    22

    204014

    0

    7270000

    0

    7270000

    1000000

    1920-1940

    44

    8731744

    0

    20072000

    7208000

    27280000

    3776460

    1940-1960

    196

    4346364

    0

    26181768

    509000

    26690768

    5388000

    1960-1980

    900

    166116

    330812

    561438488

    28799114

    590568414

    29786676

    1980-2000

    3016

    285198

    1807676

    3752845282

    112769790

    3867422748

    559391456

    2000-2013

    4153

    133750

    495958

    2504457390

    27469835

    2532423183

    583760454

    Table 12. Overview of the total number and impacts of floods to people in the period from 1900 to 2013, classified by twenty years periods. Source of data: EM – DAT: The OFDA/

    CRED International Disaster Database.

    During the period from 1900 to 2013, the largest number of 4153 floods occurred in the period since 2000 to 2013 and a minimum of 22 floods from 1910 to 1920. The largest number of the killed was from 1920 to 1940 8.731.744 and the lowest one, 133.750, occurred in the period from 2000 to 2013. The highest number of affected was in the period from 1980 to 2000 and the lowest number was 7.270.000 from 1900 to 1920. In the period from 1980 to 2000, there was the highest number of the homeless, 97,173,650 (Table 11).

     

    Figure 8 Percentage overview of the consequences of flooding to people Fin the period from 1900 to 2013, classified by decades. Source of data: EM – DAT: The OFDA/CRED

    International Disaster Database.

    In percentage terms, most people were killed in the period from 1920 to 1940 (62.97%) and the lowest percentage from 1900 to 1920 (1.47%). In the period from 1980 to 2000 there was the highest number of the injured (62.62%), affected (54.61%) and homeless (63.83%). The lowest percentage was injured (0%) in the period 1900-1960, the affected in the period from 1900 to 1910 (0%), and the homeless in the period from 1900 to 1920 (0%) (Figure 8).

     

    Year Occurrence No. of people

    killed

    No. of people

    injured

    No. of people

    affected

    Homeless Total affected Estimated

    damage ($)

    1900-1950

    106

    9145188

    0

    47606000

    7208000

    54814000 6806460

    1950-2013

    8225

    4721998

    2634446

    6824658928

    169547739

    6996841113 1176296586

    Table 13. Overview of the total number and impacts of floods to people in the period from 1900 to 2013, classified into two periods from 1900 to 1950 and from 1950 and 20013. Source

    of data: EM – DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

    Looking at a period of fifty years, it is noted that after 1950, there was a significantly higher number of floods. Thus, the total number of floods from 1900 to 1950 amounted to 106, and from 1950 to 2013 8225 (Table 13).

     

    Figure 9. Percentage overview of the consequences of flooding to people in the period from 1900 to 2013, classified into two periods: from 1900 until 1950 and since 1950 to 2013.

    Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

    In percentage terms, the highest number of the killed (65.95%), injured (100%) and affected (99.31%), as the number of people left homeless (95.92%) was in the period from 1950 to 2013, and the lowest number in the period before 1950. (Figure 9).

    Year Occurrence No. of people

    killed

    No. of people

    injured

    No. of people Homeless Total affected Estimated

    affected damage ($)

    2006

    452

    11686

    4398

    51336414

    9277884

    60618696

    15611884

    2007

    436

    17214

    13300

    353718102

    1940494

    355671896

    49172134

    2005

    386

    11508

    3842

    148649078

    1400698

    150053618

    35879340

    2010

    366

    16892

    20766

    375605606

    1341440

    376967812

    96052294

    2002

    344

    8472

    77790

    335269752

    193904

    335541446

    53651022

    Table 14. Top five years by floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM- DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

    During the period from 1900 to 2013, in 2006 most floods happened, 452. So, in the first place by flooding is 2006, then 2007, 2005, 2010 and 2002 in the end (Table 14).

     

    Year Occurrence No. of people

    killed

    No. of people

    injured

    No. of people

    affected

    Homeless Total affected Estimated

    damage ($)

    1931

    2

    7400000

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2800000

    1959

    26

    4006792

    0

    26000

    0

    26000

    0

    1939

    4

    1000020

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    1935

    2

    284000

    0

    20060000

    0

    20060000

    0

    1911

    2

    200000

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Table 15. Top five years by the number of deaths due to the consequences of floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster

    Database.

    During the period from 1900 to 2013, in 1931 most people were killed due to the consequences of floods and the number was 7,400,000. In the first place by the number of deaths due to the consequences of the floods is 1931 then 1959, 1939, 1935 and 1911 in the end (Table 15).

     

    Year Occurrence No. of people

    killed

    No. of people

    injured

    Broj pogodenih Homeless Total affected Estimated

    damage ($)

    1996

    184

    16094

    505654

    354835800

    10012572

    365354026

    56994000

    1992

    118

    10630

    504240

    30700328

    7991020

    39195588

    15725326

    2003

    318

    7772

    306304

    335095952

    3520902

    338923158

    41731296

    1998

    188

    21306

    247922

    551071240

    36006208

    587325370

    87858302

    1968

    40

    14612

    200400

    47668384

    1789168

    49657952

    834362

    Table 16. Top five years by the number of the injured due to the impacts of floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster

    Database.

     

    During the period from 1900 to 2013, in 1996 most people were injured due to the consequences of floods and the number was 505.654. In the first place by the number of the injured due to the consequences of the floods is 1996 then 1992, 2003, 1988 and 1968 in the end (Table 16).

    Year Occurrence

    No. of people killed

    No. of people injured

    No. of people Homeless Total affected affected

    Estimated damage ($)

    1998

    188

    21306

    247922

    551071240

    36006208

    587325370

    87858302

    1991

    154

    11704

    64854

    444466296

    11067628

    455598778

    25035276

    1995

    188

    15912

    142148

    381295332

    5445014

    386882494

    55111588

    2010

    366

    16892

    20766

    375605606

    1341440

    376967812

    96052294

    1996

    184

    16094

    505654

    354835800

    10012572

    365354026

    56994000

    Table 17. Top five years by the number of the affected due to the impacts of floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster

    Database.

    During the period from 1900 to 2013, in 1998 most people were affected due to the consequences of floods and the number was 551.071.240. In the first place by the number of the affected due to the consequences of the floods is 1998 then 1991, 1995, 2010 and 1996 in the end (Table 17).

    Year Occurrence No. of people

    No. of people

    No. of people Homeless Total affected Estimated

    killed

    injured

    affected

    damage ($)

    1998

    188

    21306

    247922

    551071240

    36006208

    587325370

    87858302

    1994

    176

    13542

    45570

    245092526

    14428246

    259566342

    41005612

    1975

    34

    1696

    186

    64098410

    14160300

    78258896

    2272486

    1991

    154

    11704

    64854

    444466296

    11067628

    455598778

    25035276

    1996

    184

    16094

    505654

    354835800

    10012572

    365354026

    56994000

    Table 18. Top five years by the number of the homeless due to the impacts of floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster

    Database.

    During the period from 1900 to 2013, in 1998 most people were homeless due to the consequences of floods and the number was 36.006.208. In the first place by the number of the injured due to the consequences of the floods is 1998 then 1994, 1975, 1991 and 1996 in the end (Table 18).

    Year Occurrence No. of people

    No. of people

    No. of people Homeless Total affected Estimated

    killed

    injured

    affected

    damage ($)

    2011

    310

    12308

    4048

    270468184

    2418572

    272890804

    141514094

    2010

    366

    16892

    20766

    375605606

    1341440

    376967812

    96052294

    1998

    188

    21306

    247922

    551071240

    36006208

    587325370

    87858302

    1993

    168

    12300

    3140

    297750036

    748670

    298501846

    65735886

    1996

    184

    16094

    505654

    354835800

    10012572

    365354026

    56994000

    Table 19. Top five years by estimated value of property damage due to the impacts of floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International

    Disaster Database.

    During the period from 1900 to 2013, the highest estimated property damage due to the consequences of floods was in 2001 and the number was 1.414.514.094. Thus, by estimated property damage due to the consequences of the floods in the first place is 2011 then 2010, 1998, 1993 and 1996 in the end (Table 19).

    CONCLUSION

    Managing the security and rescue of the flood is one of the oldest civilization heritages of human. As such, it has always exercised by good forecasts of meteorological phenomena and elements, water level and flow, good hydraulic engineering interventions on water regulation, construction of dams, dikes, retention ponds and clear water management interests. It is, therefore, geospatial and temporal distribution of floods in the world for the period from 1900 to 2013, provides a general overview, which can certainly be directly/indirectly used as an argument to advocate for the implementation of certain policies and procedures to protect and save people and their property from flooding based on the principle of “living with a flood” or steady and investment projects and reducing the exposure of the population relation of non- investment and attributes of the environment flood risk.

    It is, therefore, analyzing numbers, trends, impacts and temporal and geospatial distribution in the flood period from 1900 to 2013, we came to the following conclusions in relation to the total number of flood events by continent, in this period, the highest number happened in Asia, then in America, Africa, Europe and the lowest number in Oceania. Compared by continents, the highest percentage of the killed due to consequences of flooding was in Asia (98.00%) and lowest in Oceania. Most of the injured, affected, and homeless were in Asia, and the lowest number of injured, affected and those who were left homeless was in Oceania. Compared by states, the highest number of floods happened in Afghanistan, followed by Albania, Algeria, Samoa, and Angola, by the number of deaths in the first place is China, followed by Haiti, India, Bangladesh, Guatemala and Venezuela, by the number of people injured due to the consequences of flooding in the first place is China, followed by Indonesia, Bangladesh, Sudan and El Salvador, by the number of affected people due to the impacts of floods in the first place is China, followed India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Thailand, by the number of people who were left homeless due to the consequences of floods in the first place is China, followed by India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, in the period from 1900 to 2013 there were 8331 floods, There were 13,867,186 of the killed, 2,634,446 were injured, 6872264928 affected, and 176755739 homeless, the highest number of floods occurred in the period from 2000 to 2013, a minimum from 1900 to 1920, most of those killed were from 1920 to 1940, the lowest number, in the period from 2000 to 2013, most people have been affected during the period from the 1980 to 2000, and the lowest number was, in a period from 1900 to 1920, most of the homeless in the period from 1980 to 2000.

    Processed and analyzed data indicate a potential threat to national geographic space, despite the fact that Europe is in fourth place by the stated indicators of vulnerability to flooding. Also, research results indicate higher frequency and greater human and material losses in the last 14 years compared to other similar time equivalents in the observed period. Therefore, it is expected this trend will continue in the future, especially given the level of climate change and less material resources of society. The floods that have occurred in the geographic space of Serbia in the last 14 years, largely confirmed the specified possibility, because in that period of time were historical high water levels on the Danube, Sava, Tisza, Tamis, Morava, Lim and other waterways.29

    Therefore, sound and organized record keeping of floods and their impacts and consequences gives us the information necessary to create an effective and efficient system of early warning and risk assessment, and all this in order to reduce their consequences. By collecting and analyzing data on floods to study the probability of occurrence of maximum flows and water levels significantly improves prevention and preparedness of the state to respond to these types of emergencies that cannot be completely prevented.

    From the above, it is necessary to continue ongoing research phenomenology and monitoring methodology and forecasting floods as a kind of natural disaster, to normatively improve the system of preventive care especially in the area of more consistent compliance with urban planning standards of construction of buildings according to the risk assessment of vulnerability by floods and flash floods (e.g. prohibition of construction in the area of 20- year high water levels). Also, it is necessary to create conditions for greater proactive action through regulation of critical waterways, safe and high quality construction of hydroelectric plants (dams, reservoirs, retention basins), decision support systems subjects for subjects of protection and rescue system from national local level, awareness of the potentially affected population and higher level of training and equipping of forces for action in terms of elimination and mitigation of catastrophic flooding – specialized units of civil defense, fire and rescue units of the Serbian Army, Red Cross Mountain Rescue and authorized and qualified entities for the protection and rescue in emergency situations such as water management, construction, utilities and other enterprises. Finally, special emphasis should be placed on improving the monitoring system of national, transnational watercourses and waterways that have torrential hydrological regime, and promoting international cooperation and action of national rescue forces outside of national geographic space, from the regional to the global level.

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    UDC 340.134:614.84

    NORMATIVE REGULATION OF FIRE PROTECTION IN THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA

    Dragan Kulic

    Directorate for Police Education, Professional Training, Development and Science, Section for Specialised Training, MoI of the Republic of Serbia

    Spec. Marina Milosevic

    Sector for Emergency Management, MoI of the Republic of Serbia

    Spec. Dragana Markovic

    Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies, Belgrade

    Abstract: The paper points to the need for establishing a normative regime for procedures in emergencies, i.e. fire protection in the Republic of Serbia, since both people and assets are threatened in such situation. For these reasons, same as in other countries, normative regulation for procedures in emergencies is established in Serbia by the existing Law on Emergencies, the Law on Fire Protection and the applicable bylaws, stemming from the Law on Fire Protection, but within the Fire Protection Strategy. The Law on Police of the Republic of Serbia also obliges police officers to perform the duties of fire protection, because in this way they eliminate the direct threats to people and assets.

    Keywords: protection, fire, fire-fighting unit, control, supervision, fire protection.

    INTRODUCTION

    By passing the Law on Fire Protection, this sphere was regulated in a unique way. The entities, competencies, measures, control and responsibility of the bearers of fire protection, were defined. Fire protection system includes a set of measures and actions for planning, financing, organizing, implementation and control of fire protection measures and actions, for preventing the outbreak and spread of fires, detection of fire and fire fighting, rescuing of people and property, protecting the environment, identification and elimination of the causes of fire, as well as for assisting in eliminating the consequences caused by fire1. From the legal definition alone, it stems that fire protection includes a wide range of different functions in a rounded system containing all the above mentioned activities.

    Methods for achieving fire protection are defined in the Law on Fire Protection. Fire protection is achieved through:

    1. organizing and preparing fire protection subjects for the implementation of fire protection;
    2. providing conditions for the implementation of fire protection;
    3. undertaking measures and actions for the protection and rescue of people, material assets and the environment during a fire;
    4. supervision of the implementation of fire protection measures.

The implementation of administrative control, which in this field is performed by the Ministry of Interior, and in a way, volunteer fire companies and their associations, provides undertaking of preventative measures in order to raise the level of fire protection, and it also ensures monitoring of the situation in this area by the competent authorities.2

In order to determine the appropriate organization and other measures needed for the successful functioning and implementation of fire protection measures, organizations and bodies are classified into three categories of fire risk , depending on the technological process, type of material that they produce, process or store, type of material used for the construction of a building and the importance of that building. Depending on the established categorization,

 

  1. Article 2 of the Law on Fire Protection, “Official Gazette of the Republic of Serbia”, No. 111/09.

  2. In the fire protection system, there are the following principles: protection, prevention, continuity, raising of awarness, transparency, cooperation, solidarity and accountability.

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