Analysis of Geospatial and Temporal Distribution of Floods as Natural Emergencies

Vladimir Cvetković[1]

The Academy of Criminalistic and Police studies, Belgrade, Serbia

vladimir.cvetkovic@kpa.edu.rs

ANALYSIS OF GEOSPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF FLOODS AS NATURAL EMERGENCIES

 

Abstract: Floods as hydrological emergencies, every day increasingly threaten the safety of people and their property. As such, they intensely attract the attention of researchers in the field of geospatial, technical, natural, information and other sciences, but also experts in the field of emergency who want to better understand it. Bearing in mind that this is a mass phenomenon, which consists of multiple units, most preferred method of scientific research and drawing conclusions about the phenomenology of flood is a statistical method. Guided by this fact, the subject of this paper is a descriptive statistical analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of flood in period from 1900 until 2013 at the global level. Thereby, a statistical study was conducted in such a way that in the first step it was taken raw (unprocessed) data in format of “Excel” file from the international database on disasters (CRED) in Brussels, which were then analyzed in the statistical SPSS data processing. Within the temporal analysis it is examined the distribution of the total number and impacts of floods on an annual, monthly and daily basis, with a special focus on the top 5 countries by the number of different effects (killed, injured, affected, homeless). On the same principle, within the geospatial distribution it is analyzed the total number and consequences of floods by continents and countries, with special emphasis on the top five states in terms of total number and variety of consequences. Therefore, for more effective and efficient protection and emergency response caused by the deleterious effect of flooding, it is needed to comprehensively explore specified natural phenomena, so that the subject of the paper will be form, consequences, temporal and geospatial distribution of manifestation of flooding. In addition, it is important to mention that geospatial and temporal analysis of floods gives meaning, content and value to a comprehensive effort to better understand natural hazards and their effects, in order to timely protect people from them, and in this case, adjust to the flood risk.

Keywords: security, floods, emergencies, statistical analysis, protection and rescue.

 

INTRODUCTION

 

Natural emergencies increasingly endanger the safety of modern mankind. Not only that the past decades it is obvious increase in the number, but there is increase in their destructiveness. [2] This results in a higher loss of life, material and non-material damage. Therefore, natural emergencies are events that have a large and tragic impact on society, damaging the common ways of life, hinder economic, cultural, and sometimes political conditions of life and slow the development of the community and require special measures taken by emergency and rescue services in emergency situations.[3] It can be said that natural emergencies are the consequences of mutual influence of natural events (geophysical processes and other processes in nature) and human systems (socio – economic, cultural and physical). [4]According to Mohamed, natural emergencies can be classified as: natural phenomena of complex physical origin of the Earth’s surface (earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions), natural phenomena of complex physical origin of the Earth’s surface (landslides, avalanches), meteorological/hydrological phenomena (storms, cyclones, typhoons , hurricanes, tornadoes, snow storms, sea surges, floods, drought, heat wave/cold wave), and biological phenomena (invasion – swarms of locusts and bugs, epidemic or infectious diseases – cholera, dengue fever, Ebola, smallpox, meningitis, malaria, yellow fever, AIDS, SARS, avian flu).[5] They differ from natural hazards, which generate natural emergencies only after endanger people and their material goods. [6]More specifically, they occur due to the impact of natural hazards on people, property, infrastructure and natural resources. These events have a large and tragic impact on society, damage the common ways of life, hinder economic, cultural, and sometimes political conditions of life and slow the development of the community. [7]In principle, they are of polymorphic character (two instances of the same origin and intensity usually produce different overall effects), accompanied by the phenomenon of parallelism (affecting only certain geospatial areas where significant change living conditions and environment) and have specific, usually massive consequences (social, health, physical and environmental).[8]

One of the most important natural emergencies certainly is the flood. Risk of flooding only exists as part of the relationship between water and human habitation (activities). For most of the world’s population, flooding is regular seasonal phenomenon that ensures the growth of crops as it brings danger. Floods are important to the ecology of many areas. They fertilize and irrigate river valleys and fill reservoirs of water. Floods are a normal part of the regime of every river, and flood of water can come from the oceans, large rivers, smaller tributaries, urban runoff, snowmelt, and dam or levee failure.[9] Flooding can be caused by weather conditions, away from areas affected by floods.

It can be said that the flood as a natural emergency is difficult to define. It can be said partly because there are no natural boundaries in the global geographic space, and the fact that the threshold values of flood ​​are selected based on human criterion, which may varies. Flooding is usually defined as a result of overflow of the river over its levees and spreading over nearby valley.[10] The term flood can be defined as the water on the earth, which is not usually submerged.[11] This can be extended to a large increase in the amount of water in areas such as wetlands and lakes. Flooding is a natural part of the process, but only becomes a “threat” when happens a hazard or an impending danger or harm to humans, their activities or the things that they value.[12] They can be caused by climatic conditions and factors.[13] Climatic conditions include heavy rains from tropical storms and hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, cyclones, frontal winds, rapid melting of snow and ice. Climatic factors consist of tides and storms in coastal areas. Other factors that can cause floods have earthquakes, landslides and dam failures. Conditions which increase flooding include fixed basin characteristics such as size, shapes, slope, and elevation. Variable characteristics of the basin are water storage capacity and portability in soil and rocks, soil infiltration rate and extent of wetlands and lakes. Channel characteristics such as length, slope, roughness and shape, can also enhance the flood, as can the human effects of river regulation: joint use of groundwater, transfer among watersheds, wastewater discharge, water diversion and irrigation, urbanization, dams and land drainage. Generally, there are the following types of floods: floods caused by rain and melting snow, icy floods; flooding due to the coincidence of high water levels, flash floods, and floods caused landslides, floods caused by dam failure, etc.

Because of an ability of a flood to cause a lot of damage to human health, material and cultural resources and the environment, knowledge of causes, frequency, regularities of geospatial and temporal distribution and the possibility of the return of these phenomena would be very useful for flood control, and for the organization and implementation of protection and rescue measures based on the concept of “adjustment to flood risk.”[14] It is, therefore, hydrologists use statistical methods for calculating authoritative probability of high water, or in order to get an assessment of the probability that a flood of a certain size will happen in a given year, one in a hundred, five hundred or thousand.[15]

Since this is a really extensive matter, the subject of this work will be analysis of forms of expression, number, temporal and geospatial distribution of floods only. Phenomenology of other types of natural emergencies will be the subject of future research.

 

METHODS

 

The survey was conducted based on extensive material of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). It was realized in such way, as in the first step the raw – unprocessed data in format of “excel” file with 25,552 registered events, were taken from the center (www.emdat.be). [16] The download is made ​​5/6/2013. Subsequently, the data were processed by the program for statistical analysis of data, “IBM SPSS Advanced Statistics 20.0”. Frequencies and percentages of the considered variables were calculated by program operations. Also, tables and charts were made by the program made, which were further processed in, “MS Word 2013”. Results of processing of quantitative data are displayed text, tables and graphics in the form of cartographic visualization by method of thematic mapping – volume cartography. [17] The results of processing these data are displayed in text, tables and graphics.

The meanings of terms that are used in the paper are: the death toll – the number of people with confirmed death and the number of missing, apparently dead people, the number of injuries – the number of people suffering from psychological injury, or trauma requiring immediate medical attention; the number of affected – the number of people requiring immediate assistance during and after a disaster, including deployed or evacuated people, homeless – the number of people who need emergency accommodation because they ran out of his house, the affected toll – a summary of injured, homeless and affected, the total damage – a global picture of the economic impact of flooding, given in U.S. dollars.

 

ANALYSIS OF GEOSPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF FLOODS

 

To understand geospatial and temporal distribution of floods it is important to know the basic qualitative and quantitative indicators of natural emergencies at the global level and in the long run. Namely, in the period from 1900 to 2013, there were 25,552 natural emergencies. Most of them were hydrological and meteorological, geophysical, climatic and biological disasters.[18] Therefore, in this period there were 9,557 hydrological emergencies. They killed 13,987,140, 2,655,118 were injured, 6,891,172,180 were affected, 185 223 183 homeless. Therefore, the total affected were 7,079,050,481 people, while the total damage amounted to 1,200,003,042 U.S. dollars. Also, looking by the number of events, hydrological emergencies are in the first place, then meteorological, geophysical, climatic and biological in the end (Table 1).

 

Disaster sub-group Occurre

nce

No. of people killed No. of people injured No. of people affected Homeless Total affected Estimated damage ($)
Meteorological 7149 2766859 2641153 1742924832 105054916 1850620901 1872273246
Geophysical 3037 5331007 5177147 309279694 45930226 360387067 1522543792
Hydrological 9557 13987140 2655118 6891172180 185223183 7079050481 1200003042
Biological 2820 19152311 968153 90325323 0 91293476 460264
Climatological 2989 23772449 3779656 4532945549 903962 4537629167 471765608
Total 25552 65009766 15221227 13566647578 337112287 13918981092 5067045952

Table 1. Overview of the world’s natural disasters in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

At the annual level was happening 85 annual, 7 monthly and 0.6 per day hydrological emergency situations. Generally speaking, after atmospheric, hydrological emergencies are the most common (Table 2).

Disaster sub-group Annual Month Day
Atmospheric 90 7.5 0.25
Geophysica 27 2 0.07
Hydrological 85 7 0.6
Biological 24 2 0.06
Total 226 18.5 0.98

Table 2. Overview of natural emergencies in the period from 1900 to 2013, classified by annual, monthly and daily distribution. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

In percentage terms, of total number of natural emergencies, due to the consequences of hydrological emergencies, 54.94% of people were homeless, 50.79% were affected, 21.52% died, and 17.44% were injured (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Share of the consequences of natural emergencies to people in period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

Also, to understand these issues it is important to bear in mind the results of previously conducted and published research. After examining the large number of foreign papers about floods, it can be concluded that a large number of authors dealt with the problem of geospatial and temporal distribution of floods: Chow[19] (1964), Yevjevich[20] (1972), Haan[21] (1977), Kite[22] (1977), Singh[23] (1987), Potter[24] (1987), Bobee i Ashkar[25] (1991), McCuen[26] (1993)  and so on . They are all in different ways wanted to examine the frequency of their occurrence. In the period between 1946-2006 in geographic space of Serbia the following historic floods happened: 5/14/1965 and 5/14/1979 on the West Morava river, 11/19/1979 on the Ibar river, 6/26 and 6/27/1988 on the Lužnica river (left tributary of the Vlasina river) and the Vlasina river and 4/17/1996 on the Ribnica river.[27] The research results undoubtedly point to the fact that floods occur every day around the world. The causes of their occurrence are varied. Based on the collected and processed data on geospatial distribution from specified base it can be said that the highest number of floods in period from 1900 to 2013occurred in Asia with 3427 floods, and the lowest number in Oceania with 258. Bearing in mind all the continents, by number of flooding in the first place is Asia, then America, Africa, Europe and Oceania in the end (Table 3).

 

Continent Occurrence No. of people killed No. of people injured No. of people affected Homeless Total affected Estimated damage ($)
Africa 1669 50557 55947 119555483 11910538 131521968 14630498
America 1943 208047 88300 165740994 7133925 172963219 195930880
Asia 3427 13589418 2438303 6560968177 153660678 6717067158 722929790
Europe 1034 18148 51712 23873756 3835628 27761096 220657128
Oceania 258 1016 184 2126518 214970 2341672 28954750
Total 8331 13867186 2634446 6872264928 176755739 7051655113 1183103046

 

Table 3. Overview of the total number and impacts of floods to people from 1900 to 2013, sorted by continents. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

Figure 2. Percentage overview of the total number of floods in period from 1900 to 2013, sorted by continent. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

Picture 1. Global view of distributions of floods in the period from 1985 to 2003.[28]

 

In percentage terms, in the period from 1900 to 2013, Asia had 41.14%, America 23.32%, 20.03% Africa, Europe 12.41% and Oceania 3.10% of floods. Therefore, if we take into account the average value of flood occurrence, it can be concluded that in Asia, they occur above average, compared with Europe and Oceania, where the number is below the average. Of course, in Africa and the United States they occur within certain average in relation to the total number of floods in the world (Figure 2 and Picture 1).

 

Figure 3. Percentage overview of the consequences of flooding to people in the period from 1900 to 2013, classified by continent. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

Picture 2. The cartographic representation of the total number and impacts of floods in the world in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

In comparison to percentages of flood events, it is clear that the highest percentage of the killed (98%), injured (92.55%), affected (95.47%) and homeless (86.93%) has remained in Asia. While on the other hand, all percentages were the lowest in Oceania (Figure 3 and Figure 2).

 

Country Occurrence No. of people killed No. of people injured No. of people affected Homeless Total affected Estimated damage ($)
Avganistan 499 8010 2256 2376836 121390 2500482 792000
Albanija 452 38 0 273968 0 273968 49346
Algerija 318 9728 2410 1272300 267340 1542050 3087834
Samoa 309 12 6 0 0 6 100000
Angola 264 975 94 2170574 223580 2394248 20000

 

Table 4. Top five states by the floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

During the period from 1900 to 2013, the highest number of floods happened in Afghanistan 499. Thus, by the number of floods in the first place is Afghanistan then Albania with 452, Algeria 318, Samoa 309 and Angola 264 (Table 4).

 

Country Occurrence No. of people killed No. of people injured No. of people affected Homeless Total affected Estimated damage ($)
Kina 70 13196986 1653752 3845305864 86704258 3933663874 372685592
Indija 32 122416 3588 1598677710 32178000 1630859298 72092376
Bangladeš 130 104466 204784 626545924 8510724 635261432 24076800
Gvatemala 38 81816 760 1786398 8540 1795698 360826
Venecuela 2 60792 6496 1463832 330556 1800884 6994252

 

Table 5. Top five states by the number of the killed by floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

During the period from 1900 to 2013, the highest number of the killed due to the impacts of floods was in China 13.196.986. Thus, by the number of the killed due to the impacts of floods in the first place is China, India 122 416, Bangladesh 104 466 81 816, Guatemala and Venezuela 60 792 (Table 5).

 

 

Country Occurrence No. of people killed No. of people injured No. of people affected Homeless Total affected Estimated damage ($)
Kina 70 13196986 1653752 3845305864 86704258 3933663874 372685592
Indonezija 32 12885 510394 17518374 356060 18384828 11302094
Bangladeš 130 104466 204784 626545924 8510724 635261432 24076800
Sudan 4 1546 38076 9389204 2906960 12334240 1102400
El Salvador 55 1356 36000 822684 0 858684 2563000

 

Table 6. Top five states by the number of the injured in floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

During the period from 1900 to 2013, the highest number of the killed due to the impacts of floods was in China 1,653,752. Thus, by the number of the injured due to the consequences of the floods in the first place is China, then Indonesia 510 394, Bangladesh 204 784, Sudan 38 076 and El Salvador 36 000 (Table 6).

 

Country Occurrence No. of people killed No. of people injured Broj  pogođenih Homeless Total affected Estimated damage ($)
Kina 70 13196986 1653752 3845305864 86704258 3933663874 372685592
Indija 32 122416 3588 1598677710 32178000 1630859298 72092376
Bangladeš 130 104466 204784 626545924 8510724 635261432 24076800
Pakistan 12 31854 17466 138922014 8468830 147408310 34936356
Tajland 4 7668 7382 103461510 322966 103791858 89602816

 

Table 7. Top five states by the number of the affected by floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

During the period from 1900 to 2013, the highest number of the affected due to the impacts of floods was in China 3.845.305.864. Thus, by the number of the injured due to the consequences of the floods in the first place is China, then India 1.598.677.710, Bangladesh 626.545.924, Pakistan 138.922.014 and Thailand 103 461 510 (Table 7).

 

Country Occurrence No. of people killed No. of people injured No. of people affected Homeless Total affected Estimated damage ($)
Kina 70 13196986 1653752 3845305864 86704258 3933663874 372685592
Indija 32 122416 3588 1598677710 32178000 1630859298 72092376
Bangladeš 130 104466 204784 626545924 8510724 635261432 24076800
Pakistan 12 31854 17466 138922014 8468830 147408310 34936356
Šri Lanka 4 2592 2183 18562323 7733748 26298254 1961128

 

Table 8. Top five states by the number of the homeless by floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

During the period from 1900 to 2013, the highest number of the homeless due to the impacts of floods is in China 86.704.258. Thus, by the number of the injured due to the consequences of the floods in the first place was in China, then India 32.178.000, Bangladesh 8.510.724, Pakistan 8.468.830 and Sri Lanka 7.733.748 (Table 8).

 

Country Occurrence No. of people killed No. of people injured No. of people affected Homeless Total affected Estimated damage ($)
Kina 70 13196986 1653752 3845305864 86704258 3933663874 372685592
SAD 2 5582 720 24222342 70600 24293662 112822520
Tajland 4 7668 7382 103461510 322966 103791858 89602816
Indija 32 122416 3588 1598677710 32178000 1630859298 72092376
Italija 30 2134 424 2736300 2996300 5733024 46711200

 

Table 9. Top five states by the assessed value of property damage by floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

During the period from 1900 to 2013, the highest assessed value of property damage due to the impacts of floods is China 372.685.592. Thus, by assessed value of property damage due to the consequences of the floods in the first place are China, then USA 112.822.520, Thailand 89.602.816, India 72.092.376 and Italy 46.711.200 (Table 9).

 

ANALYSIS OF TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF FLOODS

 

A number of researchers every day have fear of confirming the fact that the number of natural emergencies increases every year. In order to eliminate uncertainty, it is important to consider their temporal distribution. The aim of such analysis is certainly influencing certain prognostic plans. That is why it is very important to perform temporal analysis of flooding. Accordingly, in the period from 1900 to 2013 8,331 floods happened, with 13,867,186 of the killed, 2,634,446 of the injured, 6,872,264,928 of the affected and 176 755 739 of the homeless. Observed annually, it can be said there were 74, 6 floods per month, 0.20 floods per day (Table 10).

 

Type Occurrence No. of people killed No. of people injured No. of people affected Homeless Total affected Estimated damage ($)
Flood 8331 13867186 2634446 6872264928 176755739 7051655113 1183103046
Yearly 74 122718 23313 60816503 1564210 62404027 10469938
Monthlz 6 10226 1942 5068041 130350 5200335 872494
Daily 0.20 340 65 168934 4345 173344 29083

 

Table 10. Overview of the total number and impacts of floods in the period from 1900 to 2013, with reference to the annual, monthly and daily distribution. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

Figure 4. Percentage overview of the total number of floods in period from 1900 from 2013 year, classified by decades. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

Up until 1980 the floods have occurred within a certain average of 10%. After this period it can be noticed a significant increase in the number of floods, and the culmination is the period since 2000 to 2013 when it happened 49.85% of the total number of floods for the period. The minimum number of floods occurred in the period from 1900 to 1910 and it is 0.17% (Figure 4).

 

Figure 5. Percentage overview of the total number of floods in period from 1900 to  2013, classified by twenty years periods. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

In the periods of twenty years, the largest number of earthquakes occurred in the period from 2000 to 2013 (49.85%) and lowest in the period from 1900 to 1920 (0.26%) (Figure 5).

Figure 6 Percentage overview of the total number of floods in period from 1900 to 2013, classified into two periods: from 1900 to 1950 and from 1950 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

Based on the graph shown above, one can clearly notice that most of the flooding occurred in the period since 1950 to 2013 and it was 98.73%, in contrast to the period from 1900 to 1950 (1.27%) (Figure 6).

 

Year Occurrence No. of people killed No. of people injured No. of people affected Homeless Total affected Estimated damage ($)
1900-1910 14 4014 0 0 0 0 960000
1910-1920 8 200000 0 7270000 0 7270000 40000
1920-1930 20 8564 0 12000 4000 16000 100460
1930-1940 24 8723180 0 20060000 7204000 27264000 3676000
1940-1950 40 209430 0 20264000 0 20264000 2030000
1950-1960 156 4136934 0 5917768 509000 6426768 3358000
1960-1970 358 50126 250346 133860212 6690926 140801484 12606358
1970-1980 542 115990 80466 427578276 22108188 449766930 17180318
1980-1990 1090 86676 173416 923911336 15626140 939710892 93326142
1990-2000 1926 198522 1634260 2828933946 97143650 2927711856 466065314
2000-2013 4153 133750 495958 2504457390 27469835 2532423183 583760454

 

Table 11. Overview the total number and consequences of flooding to people and property in the period from 1900 to 2013, classified by decades. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

During the period from 1900 to 2013, the largest number of 4153 floods occurred in the period since 2000 to 2013 and a minimum of 8 floods from 1910 to 1920. The largest number of the killed were from 1930 to 1940 872,318 and the lowest one, 4014, occurred in the period from 1900 to 1910. By the number of the affected due to the consequences of floods in the period from 1900 to 2000 the highest number was 2,828,933,946 and minimum without consequences from 1900 to 1910. In the period from 1900 to 2000, there was the highest number of the homeless, 97,173,650 (Table 11).

Figure 7. Percentage overview of the consequences of flooding to people and property in the period from 1900 to 2013, classified by decades. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

In percentage terms, most people were killed in the period from 1930 to 1940 (62.91%) and the lowest percentage from 1900 to 1920 (1.47%). In the period from 1990 to 2000 the highest number was the injured (62.03%), affected (41.16%) and homeless (54.96%). The lowest percentage was injured (0%) in the period 1900-1960, the affected in the period from 1900 to 1910 (0%), and the homeless in the period from 1900 to 1930 (0%) (Figure 7).

 

Year Occurrence No. of people killed No. of people injured No. of people affected Homeless Total affected Estimated damage ($)
1900-1920 22 204014 0 7270000 0 7270000 1000000
1920-1940 44 8731744 0 20072000 7208000 27280000 3776460
1940-1960 196 4346364 0 26181768 509000 26690768 5388000
1960-1980 900 166116 330812 561438488 28799114 590568414 29786676
1980-2000 3016 285198 1807676 3752845282 112769790 3867422748 559391456
2000-2013 4153 133750 495958 2504457390 27469835 2532423183 583760454

 

Table 12. Overview of the total number and impacts of floods to people in the period from 1900 to 2013, classified by twenty years periods. Source of data: EM – DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

During the period from 1900 to 2013, the largest number of 4153 floods occurred in the period since 2000 to 2013 and a minimum of 22 floods from 1910 to 1920. The largest number of the killed was from 1920 to 1940 8.731.744 and the lowest one, 133.750, occurred in the period from 2000 to 2013. The highest number of affected was in the period from 1980 to 2000 and the lowest number was 7.270.000 from 1900 to 1920. In the period from 1980 to 2000, there was the highest number of the homeless, 97,173,650 (Table 11).

Figure 8 Percentage overview of the consequences of flooding to people Fin the period from 1900 to 2013, classified by decades. Source of data: EM – DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

In percentage terms, most people were killed in the period from 1920 to 1940 (62.97%) and the lowest percentage from 1900 to 1920 (1.47%). In the period from 1980 to 2000 there was the highest number of the injured (62.62%), affected (54.61%) and homeless (63.83%). The lowest percentage was injured (0%) in the period 1900-1960, the affected in the period from 1900 to 1910 (0%), and the homeless in the period from 1900 to 1920 (0%) (Figure 8).

 

Year Occurrence No. of people killed No. of people injured No. of people affected Homeless Total affected Estimated damage ($)
1900-1950 106 9145188 0 47606000 7208000 54814000 6806460
1950-2013 8225 4721998 2634446 6824658928 169547739 6996841113 1176296586

 

Table 13. Overview of the total number and impacts of floods to people in the period from 1900 to 2013, classified into two periods from 1900 to 1950 and from 1950 and 20013. Source of data: EM – DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

Looking at a period of fifty years, it is noted that after 1950, there was a significantly higher number of floods. Thus, the total number of floods from 1900 to 1950 amounted to 106, and from 1950 to 2013 8225 (Table 13).

 

 

Figure 9. Percentage overview of the consequences of flooding to people in the period from 1900 to 2013, classified into two periods: from 1900 until 1950 and  since 1950 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

In percentage terms, the highest number of the killed (65.95%), injured (100%) and affected (99.31%), as the number of people left homeless (95.92%) was in the period from 1950 to 2013, and the lowest number in the period before 1950. (Figure 9).

 

Year Occurrence No. of people killed No. of people injured No. of people affected Homeless Total affected Estimated damage ($)
2006 452 11686 4398 51336414 9277884 60618696 15611884
2007 436 17214 13300 353718102 1940494 355671896 49172134
2005 386 11508 3842 148649078 1400698 150053618 35879340
2010 366 16892 20766 375605606 1341440 376967812 96052294
2002 344 8472 77790 335269752 193904 335541446 53651022

 

Table 14. Top five years by floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

During the period from 1900 to 2013, in 2006 most floods happened, 452. So, in the first place by flooding is 2006, then 2007, 2005, 2010 and 2002 in the end (Table 14).

 

Year Occurrence No. of people killed No. of people injured No. of people affected Homeless Total affected Estimated damage ($)
1931 2 7400000 0 0 0 0 2800000
1959 26 4006792 0 26000 0 26000 0
1939 4 1000020 0 0 0 0 0
1935 2 284000 0 20060000 0 20060000 0
1911 2 200000 0 0 0 0 0

 

Table 15. Top five years by the number of deaths due to the consequences of floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

During the period from 1900 to 2013, in 1931 most people were killed due to the consequences of floods and the number was 7,400,000. In the first place by the number of deaths due to the consequences of the floods is 1931 then 1959, 1939, 1935 and 1911 in the end (Table 15).

 

Year Occurrence No. of people killed No. of people injured Broj  pogođenih Homeless Total affected Estimated damage ($)
1996 184 16094 505654 354835800 10012572 365354026 56994000
1992 118 10630 504240 30700328 7991020 39195588 15725326
2003 318 7772 306304 335095952 3520902 338923158 41731296
1998 188 21306 247922 551071240 36006208 587325370 87858302
1968 40 14612 200400 47668384 1789168 49657952 834362

 

Table 16. Top five years by the number of the injured due to the impacts of floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

During the period from 1900 to 2013, in 1996 most people were injured due to the consequences of floods and the number was 505.654. In the first place by the number of the injured due to the consequences of the floods is 1996 then 1992, 2003, 1988 and 1968 in the end (Table 16).

 

Year Occurrence No. of people killed No. of people injured No. of people affected Homeless Total affected Estimated damage ($)
1998 188 21306 247922 551071240 36006208 587325370 87858302
1991 154 11704 64854 444466296 11067628 455598778 25035276
1995 188 15912 142148 381295332 5445014 386882494 55111588
2010 366 16892 20766 375605606 1341440 376967812 96052294
1996 184 16094 505654 354835800 10012572 365354026 56994000

 

Table 17. Top five years by the number of the affected due to the impacts of floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

During the period from 1900 to 2013, in 1998 most people were affected due to the consequences of floods and the number was 551.071.240. In the first place by the number of the affected due to the consequences of the floods is 1998 then 1991, 1995, 2010 and 1996 in the end (Table 17).

 

Year Occurrence No. of people killed No. of people injured No. of people affected Homeless Total affected Estimated damage ($)
1998 188 21306 247922 551071240 36006208 587325370 87858302
1994 176 13542 45570 245092526 14428246 259566342 41005612
1975 34 1696 186 64098410 14160300 78258896 2272486
1991 154 11704 64854 444466296 11067628 455598778 25035276
1996 184 16094 505654 354835800 10012572 365354026 56994000

 

Table 18. Top five years by the number of the homeless due to the impacts of floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

During the period from 1900 to 2013, in 1998 most people were homeless due to the consequences of floods and the number was 36.006.208. In the first place by the number of the injured due to the consequences of the floods is 1998 then 1994, 1975, 1991 and 1996 in the end (Table 18).

 

Year Occurrence No. of people killed No. of people injured No. of people affected Homeless Total affected Estimated damage ($)  
2011 310 12308 4048 270468184 2418572 272890804 141514094
2010 366 16892 20766 375605606 1341440 376967812 96052294
1998 188 21306 247922 551071240 36006208 587325370 87858302
1993 168 12300 3140 297750036 748670 298501846 65735886
1996 184 16094 505654 354835800 10012572 365354026 56994000  

 

Table 19. Top five years by estimated value of property damage due to the impacts of floods in the period from 1900 to 2013. Source of data: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.

 

During the period from 1900 to 2013, the highest estimated property damage due to the consequences of floods was in 2001 and the number was 1.414.514.094. Thus, by estimated property damage due to the consequences of the floods in the first place is 2011 then 2010, 1998, 1993 and 1996 in the end (Table 19).

 

CONCLUSION

 

Managing the security and rescue of the flood is one of the oldest civilization heritages of human. As such, it has always exercised by good forecasts of meteorological phenomena and elements, water level and flow, good hydraulic engineering interventions on water regulation, construction of dams, dikes, retention ponds and clear water management interests. It is, therefore, geospatial and temporal distribution of floods in the world for the period from 1900 to 2013, provides a general overview, which can certainly be directly/indirectly used as an argument to advocate for the implementation of certain policies and procedures to protect and save people and their property from flooding based on the principle of “living with a flood” or steady and investment projects and reducing the exposure of the population relation of non-investment and attributes of the environment flood risk.

It is, therefore, analyzing numbers, trends, impacts and temporal and geospatial distribution in the flood period from 1900 to 2013, we came to the following conclusions in relation to the total number of flood events by continent, in this period, the highest number happened in Asia, then in America, Africa, Europe and the lowest number in Oceania. Compared by continents, the highest percentage of the killed due to consequences of flooding was in Asia (98.00%) and lowest in Oceania. Most of the injured, affected, and homeless were in Asia, and the lowest number of injured, affected and those who were left homeless was in Oceania. Compared by states, the highest number of floods happened in Afghanistan, followed by Albania, Algeria, Samoa, and Angola, by the number of deaths in the first place is China, followed by Haiti, India, Bangladesh, Guatemala and Venezuela, by the number of people injured due to the consequences of flooding in the first place is China, followed by Indonesia, Bangladesh, Sudan and El Salvador, by the number of affected people due to the impacts of floods in the first place is China, followed India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Thailand, by the number of people who were left homeless due to the consequences of floods in the first place is China, followed by India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, in the period from 1900 to 2013 there were 8331 floods, There were 13,867,186 of the killed, 2,634,446 were injured, 6872264928 affected, and 176755739 homeless, the highest number of floods occurred in the period from 2000 to 2013, a minimum from 1900 to 1920, most of those killed were from 1920 to 1940, the lowest number, in the period from 2000 to 2013, most people have been affected during the period from the 1980 to 2000, and the lowest number was, in a period from 1900 to 1920, most of the homeless in the period from 1980 to 2000.

Processed and analyzed data indicate a potential threat to national geographic space, despite the fact that Europe is in fourth place by the stated indicators of vulnerability to flooding. Also, research results indicate higher frequency and greater human and material losses in the last 14 years compared to other similar time equivalents in the observed period. Therefore, it is expected this trend will continue in the future, especially given the level of climate change and less material resources of society. The floods that have occurred in the geographic space of Serbia in the last 14 years, largely confirmed the specified possibility, because in that period of time were historical high water levels on the Danube, Sava, Tisza, Tamis, Morava, Lim and other waterways.[29]

Therefore, sound and organized record keeping of floods and their impacts and consequences gives us the information necessary to create an effective and efficient system of early warning and risk assessment, and all this in order to reduce their consequences. By collecting and analyzing data on floods to study the probability of occurrence of maximum flows and water levels significantly improves prevention and preparedness of the state to respond to these types of emergencies that cannot be completely prevented.

From the above, it is necessary to continue ongoing research phenomenology and monitoring methodology and forecasting floods as a kind of natural disaster, to normatively improve the system of preventive care especially in the area of more consistent compliance with urban planning standards of construction of buildings according to the risk assessment of vulnerability by floods and flash floods (e.g. prohibition of construction in the area of ​​20-year high water levels). Also, it is necessary to create conditions for greater proactive action through regulation of critical waterways, safe and high quality construction of hydroelectric plants (dams, reservoirs, retention basins), decision support systems subjects for subjects of protection and rescue system from national local level, awareness of the potentially affected population and higher level of training and equipping of forces for action in terms of elimination and mitigation of catastrophic flooding – specialized units of civil defense, fire and rescue units of the Serbian Army, Red Cross Mountain Rescue and authorized and qualified entities for the protection and rescue in emergency situations such as water management, construction, utilities and other enterprises. Finally, special emphasis should be placed on improving the monitoring system of national, transnational watercourses and waterways that have torrential hydrological regime, and promoting international cooperation and action of national rescue forces outside of national geographic space, from the regional to the global level.

 

BIBLIOGRAPHY

 

 

  1. Bobée, B., Ashkar, F.: The Gamma Family and Derived Distributions Applied in Hydrology, Water Resources Publications, Littleton, CO, 1991.
  2. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (2003), “EM-DAT: the OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database”, available www.cred.be/emdat/welcome.htm (pristupljeno 05.06.2013. godine).
  3. Chow, T.: Handbook of Applied Hydrology. New York: McGraw- Hill, 1964.
  4. Cvetković, V., Mijalković, S.: Spatial and Temporal distribution of geophysical disasters. Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts and Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijic, Journal of the Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić’’ 63/3, 345-360, SASA: Special issue: International Conference Natural Hazards Links Between Science and Practice.
  5. Cvetković, V.: Intervetno-spasilačke službe u vanrednim situacijama. Beograd: Zadužbina Andrejević, 2013. godine.
  6. Dilley, M, Robert, C., Uwe D., Arthur L., Margaret A.: Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2005.
  7. Edward, B.:Natural Hazards, Second Edition. Cambridge, University Press, 2005.
  8. Filipović, I., Milojković, B., (2010). Osnovi kartografije sa topografijom, Niš: Prirodno-matematički fakultet – Departman za geografiju.
  9. Haan, T.: Statistical Methods in Hydrology. Iowa State University Press, Ames, IA, 1977.
  10. Jakovljević, V., Đarmati, Š.: Civilna zaštita u Saveznoj Republici Jugoslaviji, Beograd: Studentski trg, 1998.
  11. Kite, G.W.: Frequency and Risk Analysis in Hydrology. Water Res. Publications, Fort Collins, CO, 1977.
  12. Marlene, B., Carmichael, R.: Notable Natural Disasters. California: Salem Press, Inc, 2007.
  13. McCuen, H.: Microcomputer Applications in Statistical Hydrology, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1993.
  14. Mijalković, S., Cvetković, V.: Vulnerability of Critical Infrastructure by Natural Disasters. Belgrade: In Procesiding „National Critical Infrastructure Protection, Regional Perspective“, 2013, pp. 91-102.
  15. Milanović, A., Urošev, M., Milijašević, D.: Poplave u Srbiji u periodu 1999-2009 godine – hidrološka analiza i mere zaštite od poplava, Glasnik Srpskog geografskog društva, sveska XC, br. 1, 2010., str. 93-121.
  16. Milojković, B., Mlađan, D.: Adaptivno upravljanje zaštitom i spasavanje od poplava i bujica – prilagođavanje poplavnom rizku. Bezbednost, Year LII, br. 1/2010., str. 172-237.
  17. Mlađan, D., Cvetković, V.: Classification of Emergency Situations. Belgrade: Thematic Proceedings of International Scientific Conference “Archibald Reiss Days“, Academy of criminalistic and police studies, 1-2. march 2013, pp. 275-291.
  18. Mohamed, S. I.: Disaster types. Disaster Prevention and Management, 16, Iss: 5, 2007, pp. 704 -717.
  19. Potter, W.:Research on Flood Frequency Analysis, 1983-1986, Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 25, No. 2, pp. 113-118, 1987.
  20. Rao, A., Hamed, K.: Flood frequvencyanal analysis. Washington: CRC Press, 2000.
  21. Schumann, A.: Flood Risk Assessment and Management. Bochum, Germany: Springer, 2001.
  22. Singh, V., Singh, K.: Parameter Estimation for TPLN Distribution for Flood Frequency Analysis, Water Resources Bulletin, Vol. 23, No. 6, pp. 1185-1191.
  23. Stoltman, J., Lindston, J., Dechano, L.: International Perspectives on Natural Disasters: Occurrence, Mitigation, and Consequences. The Netherlands.: Published by Springer .O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, 2007.
  24. UNCHS (United Nations Center for Human Settlements) (1994) Sustainable Human Settlements in an Urbanizing World, including Issues Related to land policies and mitigation of natural disasters. 15th Session of the Commission on Human Settlement. Unpublished Draft Theme Paper.
  25. UN-ISDR United Nations – International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2004.
  26. Wisner, B.: At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters. London: Routledge, 2004. year.
  27. Yevjevich, M.:Statistical and Probability Analysis of Hydrologic Data, Part II, Regression and Correlation Analysis”, Sec. 8-II, Handbook of Applied Hydrology, V.T. Chow, editor-in-chief, McGraw-Hilll Book Company, New York, NY, 1964.

 

[1] Teaching assistant of subject ,,Security in emergency situations”.

[2] Mijalković, S., Cvetković, V.: Vulnerability of Critical Infrastructure by Natural Disasters. Belgrade, In Procesiding „National Critical Infrastructure Protection, Regional Perspective“, 2013, стр. 93

[3] Cvetković, V.: Intervetno-spasilačke službe u vanrednim situacijama. Beograd: Zadužbina Andrejević, 2013. godine, str. 9.

[4] Mlađan, D., Cvetković, V.: Classification of Emergency Situations. Belgrade: Thematic Proceedings of International Scientific Conference “Archibald Reiss Days“, Academy of criminalistic and police studies,1-2. march 2013, pp. 106.

[5] Mohamed, S. I.: Disaster types. Disaster Prevention and Management, Vol. 16, Iss: 5, 2007, str. 706.

[6] Wisner, B.: At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters. London: Routledge, 2004. year, str. 134. There is a significant difference between emergency, hazard and risk. The risk is the result of a combination of hazards, conditions,  vulnerabilities and insufficient capacities or measures to reduce the potential negative consequences of risk. However, when hazard or threat becomes reality, ie. when it materializes, the risk becomes an emergency. For example, a river valley may be prone to flooding. The risk exists only if the affected comunity or assets are located in the area that is prone to flooding. If the risk materializes, ie. the flood actually occurs, it will cause a loss in the affected population or property, creating an emergency situation.  Edward, B.: Natural Hazards, Second Edition. Cambridge, University Press, 2005, str. 103.

[7] According to the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction, these are “serious disturbances in the functioning of a community or society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the capabilities of the affected community to deal with them using their own resources”. See for more details: UN – ISDR United Nations – International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2004, p. 5. Similarly, according to the UN Center for Human Settlements Research “Natural emergency situation is the interplay of natural hazards, caused in most cases by sudden and unexpected natural events, and the conditions of vulnerability, which cause serious losses to human and his environment (built and natural). These losses create suffering and chaos in the normal frames of life, socio-economic, cultural, and sometimes political. Such situations require external assistance from international and national institutions, as a contribution to independent and joint responses. See for more details: UNCHS (United Nations Center for Human Settlements) (1994 ) Sustainable Human Settlements in an urbanizing World, including Issues Related to land policies and mitigation of natural disasters. 15th Session of the Commission on Human Settlement. Unpublished Draft Paper Theme.

[8] Jakovljević, V., Đarmati, Š.: Civilna zaštita u Saveznoj Republici Jugoslaviji, Beograd: Studentski trg, 1998, str. 35

[9] For example, in the geographic space of Serbia, precipitation in July, 1999 caused flooding on smaller rivers in Great and Western Morava river basin (where the high water on some tributaries occurred 2-3 times in a period from 10 to 20 days), and in December of the same year, there have been high water in Drina and Sava river basins. On Tisza and Tamis rivers in March and April, 2000, the floods have occurred due to the rapid melting of snow and the simultaneous occurrence of precipitation. In June 2001 again a large amount of rainfall caused flooding in the Drina river (the Ljubovidja, Jadra, Stiri). In April 2005, the simultaneous melting snow and intense rainfall caused the flooding of the Tamis, Tisza and Danube rivers, right tributary of the Drina and South Morava. Milojković, B., Mlađan, D.: Adaptivno upravljanje zaštitom i spasavanje od poplava i bujica – prilagođavanje poplavnom rizku. Bezbednost, Year LII, 1/2010., str. 175.

[10] Marlene, B., Carmichael, R.: Notable Natural Disasters. California: Salem Press, Inc, 2007., 122.

[11] Schumann, A.: Flood Risk Assessment and Management. Bochum, Germany: Springer, 2001., 43.

[12] Stoltman, J., Lindston, J.,  Dechano, L.: International Perspectives on Natural Disasters: Occurrence, Mitigation, and Consequences. The Netherlands.: Published by Springer .O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, 2007., str. 78.

[13] Proverbs, D., Soetanto, R.: Flood Damaged Property A Guide to Repair. Oxvord: Blackwell Publishing Ltd.,2004, str. 31.

[14] Milojković, B., Mlađan, D.: Isto: str. 172.

[15] Rao, A., Hamed, K.: Flood frequvencyanal analysis. Washington: CRC Press, 2000, pp. 24.

[16] Natural event will be recorded in the database as a natural emergency situation if it the following criteria are met: there are ten or more people killed, 100 or more people affected, declared an emergency and call for international assistance.

[17] Filipović, I., Milojković, B.: Osnovi kartografije sa topografijom, Niš: Prirodno-matematički fakultet – Departman za geografiju, 2010., str. 165.

[18] Cvetković, V., Mijalković, S.: Spatial and Temporal distribution of geophysical disasters. Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts and Geographical Institute  Jovan Cvijic, Journal of the Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić’’ 63/3, pp. 346.

 

[19] Chow, T.: Handbook of Applied Hydrology. New York: McGraw- Hill, 1964

[20] Yevjevich, V.M.: Statistical and Probability Analysis of Hydrologic Data, Part II, Regression and Correlation Analysis, Sec. 8-II, Handbook of Applied Hydrology, V.T. Chow, editor-in-chief, McGraw-Hilll Book Company, New York, NY, 1964.

[21] Haan, T.: Statistical Methods in Hydrology. Iowa State University Press, Ames, IA, 1977.

[22] Kite, G.W.: Frequency and Risk Analysis in Hydrology. Water Res. Publications, Fort Collins, CO, 1977.

[23] Singh, V., Singh, K.: Parameter Estimation for TPLN Distribution for Flood Frequency Analysis, Water Resources Bulletin, Vol. 23, No. 6, pp. 1185-1191.

[24] Potter, W.:Research on Flood Frequency Analysis, 1983-1986, Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 25, No. 2, 1987., pp. 113-118.

[25] Bobée, B., Ashkar, F.: The Gamma Family and Derived Distributions Applied in Hydrology, Water Resources Publications, Littleton, CO, 1991.

[26] McCuen, H.:. Microcomputer Applications in Statistical Hydrology, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1993.

[27] Milojković, B., Mlađan, D.: Isto: str. 176.

 

[28] Dilley, M, Robert, C., Uwe D., Arthur L., Margaret A.: Natural Disaster  Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2005, str. 21.

[29] Milanović, A., Urošev, M., Milijašević, D.: Poplave u Srbiji u periodu 1999-2009 godine – hidrološka analiza i mere zaštite od poplava, Glasnik Srpskog geografskog društva, sveska XC, br. 1, 2010., str. 106.

 

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