INTRODUCTION

Professor Dr. Vladimir M. Cvetković has dedicated his career to advancing knowledge and understanding in the fields of disaster studies, emergency situations, and security. With a prolific output, he has authored more than 25 books, each contributing valuable insights and expertise to these critical areas of study. Through his extensive research and publications, Dr. Cvetković has become a leading authority, shaping discourse and informing policies related to crisis management both in Serbia and beyond.

His works cover a wide range of topics, including but not limited to risk assessment, disaster preparedness, response strategies, and post-crisis recovery. By examining case studies, analyzing historical events, and presenting theoretical frameworks, Dr. Cvetković provides comprehensive perspectives on the complex dynamics of crises and their management. Moreover, his interdisciplinary approach incorporates insights from fields such as sociology, psychology, public health, and engineering, enriching the discourse with multifaceted viewpoints.

In addition to his scholarly contributions, Dr. Cvetković is actively engaged in practical initiatives aimed at enhancing resilience and mitigating risks in various contexts. As a member of the Scientific-Expert Society for Risk Management in Emergency Situations, based in Belgrade, he collaborates with professionals, policymakers, and stakeholders to develop effective strategies and solutions. His expertise is sought after in consultancy projects, training programs, and advisory roles, where he applies his theoretical knowledge to real-world challenges, fostering greater preparedness and response capabilities.

Furthermore, Dr. Cvetković’s impact extends beyond academia and professional circles, as he strives to raise public awareness and promote community engagement in disaster resilience. Through outreach activities, media appearances, and educational campaigns, he advocates for proactive measures and collective responsibility in building safer and more resilient societies. By bridging the gap between research, policy, and public awareness, Dr. Cvetković plays a crucial role in fostering a culture of resilience and preparedness, ultimately contributing to the well-being and security of communities in Serbia and worldwide.

  1. Cvetković, V., Šišović, V. (2024). Community Disaster Resilience in Serbia. Belgrade: Scientific-Professional Society For Disaster Risk Management.
  2. Tanasić, J., Cvetković, V. (2024). The Efficiency of Disaster and Crisis Management Policy at the Local Level: Lessons from Serbia.Belgrade: Scientific-Professional Society For Disaster Risk Management.
  3. Grozdanić, G., Cvetković, V. (2024). Exploring Multifaceted Factors Influencing Community Resilience to Earthquake-Induced Geohazards: Insights from Montenegro. Belgrade: Scientific-Professional Society For Disaster Risk Management.
  4. Nikolić, N., Cvetković, V., Ivanov, A. (2023). Human resource management in environmental security. Belgrade: Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management.
  5. Tanasić, J., Cvetković, V. (2024). Policy of Crisis Management in Serbia. Belgrade: Scientific-Professional Society For Disaster Risk Management.
  6. Cvetković, V. (2019). Upravlјanje rizicima i sistemi zaštite i spasavanja od katastrofa. Naučno-stručno društvo za upravlјanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama, Beograd;
  7. Cvetković, V. (2020). Upravlјanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama. Beograd: Naučno-stručno društvo za upravlјanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama;
  8. Cvetković, V. (2021). Bezbednosni rizici i katastrofe. Beograd: Naučno-stručno društvo za upravlјanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama;
  9. Cvetković, V. (2022). Taktika zaštite i spasavanja u katastrofama. Beograd: Naučno-stručno društvo za upravlјanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama.
  10. Cvetković, V. (2023). Otpornost na katastrofe – Vodič za prevenciju, reagovanje i oporavak. Beograd: Naučno-stručno društvo za upravlјanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama.
  11. Cvetković, V., & Čaušić, L. (2022). Zbirka propisa iz oblasti vanrednih situacija. Beograd: Naučno-stručno društvo za upravlјanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama.
  12. Cvetković, V., Filipović, M., & Gačić, J. (2019). Zbirka propisa iz oblasti upravlјanja rizicima od katastrofa. Naučno-stručno društvo za upravlјanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama, Beograd
  13. Cvetković, V. (2023). Istorijski razvoj Naučno-stručnog društva za upravlјanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama. Beograd: Naučno-stručno društvo za upravlјanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama.
  14. Cvetković, V., & Jovanović, M. (2021). Mitovi o katastrofama: istine i zablude. Beograd: Naučno-stručno društvo za upravlјanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama.
  15. Cvetković, V., Martinović, J. (2021). Upravlјanje u nuklearnim katastrofama. Beograd: Naučno-stručno društvo za upravlјanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama.
  16. Cvetković, V., Bošković, D., Janković, B., & Andrić, S. (2019). Percepcija rizika od vanrednih situacija. Kriminalističko-policijska akademija, Beograd.
  17. Cvetković, V. (2017). Metodologija naučnog istraživanja katastrofa – teorije, koncepti i metode. Zadužbina Andrejević, Beograd.
  18. Miladinović, S., Cvetković, V., & Milašinović, S. (2017). Upravlјanje u kriznim situacijama izazvanim klizištima. Kriminalističko-policijska akademija, Beograd.
  19. Cvetković, V., Milašinović, S., & Gostimirović, L. (2018). Istorijski razvoj policijskog obrazovanja u Srbiji. Visoka poslovna tehnička škola, Doboj.
  20. Cvetković, V., Filipović, M. (2017). Pripremlјenost za prirodne katastrofe – preporuke za unapređenje pripremlјenosti. Zadužbina Andrejević, Beograd.
  21. Cvetković, V. (2013). Interventno-spasilačke službe u vanrednim situacijama. Beograd, Zadužbina Andrejević.
  22. Jakovlјević, V., Cvetković, V., & Gačić, J. (2015). Prirodne katastrofe i obrazovanje. Beograd: Fakultet bezbednosti, Univerzitet u Beogradu.
  23. Cvetković, V. (2016). Policija i prirodne katastrofe. Beograd (Instant system): Zadužbina Andrejević.
  24. Cvetković, V., Gačić, J. (2016). Evakuacija u prirodnim katastrofama. Beograd: Zadužbina Andrejević, 2016.
  25. Ivanov, A., Cvetković, V. (2016). Prirodni katastrofi – geoprostorna i vremenska distribucija. Univerzitet „Sv. Kliment Ohridski“- Bitola, Fakultet za bezbednost, Skopje.
  26. Bošković, D., Cvetković, V. (2017). Procena rizika u sprečavanju izvršenja krivičnih dela eksplozivnim materijama. Beograd: Kriminalističko-policijska akademija.
  27. Cvetković, V. (2023). Spremnost srednjih škola Sliva Zapadne Morave u Republici Srbiji za smanjenje rizika od katastrofa i upravlјanje u vanrednim situacijama. Beograd: Fenomena.
  28. Cvetković, V. (2023). Integrisano upravlјanje rizicima od katastrofa: pripremlјenost, ublažavanje, odgovor i oporavak. Beograd: Naučno-stručno društvo za upravlјanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama.
  29. Cvetković, V. (2021). Pravni i bezbednosni aspekti upravlјanja rizicima od prirodnih i antropogenih katastrofa. Izdavač: Pravni fakultet u Novom Sadu i Naučno-stručno društvo za upravlјanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama.

NAUČNE MONOGRAFIJE

The Efficiency of Disaster and Crisis Management Policy at the Local Level: Lessons from Serbia

The Efficiency of Disaster and Crisis Management Policy at the Local Level: Lessons from Serbia" 📚 📖 Authors: Jasmina Tanasić, Vladimir M. Cvetković

A scientific monograph offers a comprehensive examination of crisis and disaster management policy in Serbia. Leveraging rich scientific research experience in the field of disaster studies, the authors critically assess the merits and demerits of various levels of crisis and disaster management. Crafted to address the subject matter, objectives, and methodologies employed, the monograph stands as a multidimensional, multimethod work primarily of a qualitative nature. Rooted in a qualitative approach, it scrutinizes the concept of crisis and disaster management policy across 23 cities in Serbia. Beyond enriching understanding in the intricate realm of crisis and disaster management policy at the local level, its aim extends to furnishing recommendations concerning necessary methodological and organizational shifts in the operations of local governance and decision-making bodies, legal frameworks and protocols, security strategies, decision-making processes, coordination efforts, collaborative initiatives, communication strategies, public engagement practices, educational endeavors, and information dissemination channels. In terms of the societal justification for the research, derived from empirical findings, specific conclusions and proposals have been drawn regarding the efficacy, transparency, and deficiencies in the implementation of crisis management policy concepts within Serbian cities. Concrete recommendations and proposals are presented to enhance the qualitative aspects of the concept in areas where shortcomings or inadequacies are identified. The societal justification for this research primarily lies in augmenting the capacities of local self-governments to enhance preparedness, cope with, and overcome crises and disasters, fortify safety cultures, and foster the development of "resilient local communities." Within the initial portion of the scientific monograph, the authors scrutinize and elaborate on five thematic units, each classified into corresponding chapters. The opening (first) chapter explores crises and disasters as political constructs. Delving into the concepts of crisis and disaster, the discussion navigates through theoretical distinctions among related phenomena such as disasters, emergencies, risks, accidents, and crises. Special emphasis is placed on examining the characteristics of disasters and emergencies, with reference to typologies such as classical, modern, and combined. In the second chapter of the scientific monograph, the authors delve into theoretical concepts surrounding crisis and disaster management. They explore themes such as strategic management and leadership during crises and disasters, crisis management, emergency management, and related concepts. The chapter also examines the characteristics of crisis and disaster management, models of management processes during crises and disasters, crisis and disaster management within public administration, and organizational approaches to crisis and disaster management. Moving on to the third chapter, the authors undertake a comprehensive examination of crisis and disaster management policy. Within this section, they scrutinize various issues pertaining to crisis and disaster identification, decision-making in crisis and disaster situations, interpretation of crises and disasters within the realm of political communications, risk communication regarding crises and disasters, resolution strategies for crises and disasters, as well as the assignment of blame and responsibilities. The chapter also highlights the potential for organizational learning and the implementation of reforms induced by crises and disasters. The fourth chapter of the scientific monograph focuses on community resilience in crisis and disaster situations. Here, the authors outline the characteristics of resilient communities, with particular emphasis on urban safety and the criteria for designating cities as safe. Additionally, citizen responses to crises and disasters are examined within this context. In the fifth chapter, the authors explore crisis and disaster management practices within the European Union and European countries, along with the institutional framework for such management within the EU. Special attention is given to the analysis and description of crisis and disaster management systems across European nations. In the second part of the scientific monograph, a detailed methodological framework for the conducted research is presented. This includes discussions on research subjects, objectives, and tasks, as well as the hypothetical research framework, scientific and social justifications, sources and types of data, and methodologies for data collection and processing, alongside an overview of key indicators. The third part of the scientific monograph comprehensively describes the analytical dimensions of the conducted research results. The first chapter of this section explores the cultural and historical dimensions of crisis and disaster management policy in Serbia, examining administrative-territorial frameworks, central and local levels of management and administrative structures, responsibilities and regulatory frameworks, legal reforms, and degrees of regulatory governance. In the second chapter of the third part, the authors delve into the dimensions of crisis and disaster management as public policies, discussing the socio-economic context of crisis and disaster management in Serbian cities. They explore strategic frameworks, the development of strategic and institutional frameworks for security and crisis management at the local level, intersectoral collaboration, operational frameworks for disaster management, institutional frameworks, financing, coordination between agencies, supervision, evaluation of public policies, and resource monitoring. In the third chapter, the exploration extends to partnerships and collaborative efforts in crisis and disaster management processes within Serbian municipalities. This encompasses the intricate dynamics between the state, local self-governance, and citizens concerning crisis management policies in Serbia. It further delves into the expectations that local self-governments hold towards citizens and vice versa, particularly regarding the safeguarding of their interests. Additionally, the chapter scrutinizes the typologies of crises and their perceptual reality among citizens in Serbia, as well as the identified risks delineated in national and local strategic documents. Furthermore, it examines scenarios in crisis and disaster management where volunteer engagement is integral, assessing the readiness level of citizens for such involvement within local communities. Moreover, the chapter explores collaborative initiatives with neighboring municipalities, ongoing projects concerning crisis management within Serbian local self-governments, and the scope and nature of regional or international cooperation pertaining to crisis and disaster management at the local level in Serbia. Concluding with the fourth chapter, attention shifts towards the realm of information dissemination and educational endeavors concerning crises and disasters within Serbian municipalities. This includes the specialized training programs tailored for mayoral officials in navigating crisis and disaster scenarios effectively. Moreover, it encompasses the intricacies of crisis communication strategies deployed at the local level and the pivotal role of informative and educational initiatives as integral components of proactive crisis management strategies within local communities. Join us in unraveling the complexities of crisis and disaster management policy, as we pave the way for resilient local communities and informed decision-making. Stay tuned for the release of our scientific monograph, offering invaluable lessons from Serbia's journey in crisis management.

Exploring Multifaceted Factors Influencing Community Resilience to Earthquake-Induced Geohazards: Insights from Montenegro

Exploring Multifaceted Factors Influencing Community Resilience to Earthquake-Induced Geohazards: Insights from Montenegro, Vladimir M. Cvetković

This scientific monograph stems from a deep interest in the resilience of local communities to natural disasters, particularly earthquakes, which pose one of the greatest challenges humanity faces. In our quest to explore the multifaceted factors influencing this crucial dimension of societal preparedness, we focused on Montenegro, a country located in the seismic active zone of the Mediterranean. Through an in-depth analysis of various aspects, we aim to contribute to a better understanding of the factors shaping the resilience of local communities to earthquakes and provide guidance for the development of effective strategies and programs. Our research mission aims to identify key factors shaping the resilience of local communities to earthquakes and analyze the prerequisites for the development and implementation of various strategies and programs that would enhance the situation in this area. In doing so, we rely on an interdisciplinary approach, integrating insights from various scientific disciplines to gain a deeper understanding of the complexity of this issue. In this context, we consider demographic, socioeconomic, and psychological factors influencing the resilience of local communities to earthquakes. We understand that resilience is not only the result of technical preparations but also of deeper social, economic, and psychological dynamics. Through a systematic analysis of these factors, we strive to provide a comprehensive picture of the state of preparedness of local communities and to identify key points of intervention to improve their resilience. Research approach is based on the analysis of available data as well as on field research, including interviews with the population and relevant experts. This enables us to gain a more detailed insight into the perception and attitudes of citizens regarding preparedness for earthquakes, as well as to identify specific challenges faced by local communities. Given the complexity of the problem and the importance of an interdisciplinary approach, we aim for our monograph to be a valuable resource for various stakeholders, including government institutions, non-governmental organizations, local communities, and the scientific community. We hope that the results of our research will serve as a basis for the development of concrete action plans and policies that will enhance the preparedness of local communities for earthquakes. This monograph is not only the result of our research effort but also the product of collaboration with a wider community of experts and practitioners who have contributed their knowledge and experience to our understanding of this complex issue. We express our gratitude to all who have supported and contributed to our research. Through the following pages, we will guide you through a deep analysis of the factors shaping the resilience of local communities to earthquakes, providing insight into the complexity of this problem and identifying opportunities for improving the preparedness of local communities. We hope that this monograph will be a valuable resource for all those involved in this important field and will contribute to strengthening the resilience of local communities to earthquakes and other natural disasters. A large number of social and natural factors influence the resilience of local communities to geohazards caused by earthquakes. Understanding these factors plays a crucial role in devising and implementing strategies to enhance resilience. The results of previous research on citizen resilience to geohazards caused by earthquakes have influenced the development of hypotheses, which are grounded in the concept of resilience. The general hypothesis involves testing the assertion that there is a relationship between demographic (gender, age, education, household size), socio-economic (employment, income level, marital status), and psychological characteristics (fear, past experience, risk perception) of citizens and their level of preparedness to respond to geohazards caused by earthquakes in the Republic of Montenegro. It is assumed that this relationship is at the pre-planning level, implying that citizens recognize the problem and accept that action must be taken. Based on the general hypothesis, three specific hypotheses have been defined: The first hypothesis concerns testing the assertion that there is a correlation between demographic factors (gender, age, education, household size) of citizens in the Republic of Montenegro and their resilience levels in responding to geohazards caused by earthquakes. The second hypothesis pertains to testing the assertion that there is a correlation between socio-economic factors (employment status, income level, marital status) of citizens in the Republic of Montenegro and their resilience levels in responding to geohazards caused by earthquakes. The third hypothesis concerns testing the assertion that there is a correlation between psychological characteristics (fear, previous experience, risk perception) of citizens and their readiness levels in responding to geohazards caused by earthquakes in the Republic of Montenegro. In the methodological framework of our research, we employed a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods to gather and analyze data. Surveys and interviews were conducted to collect quantitative and qualitative data, respectively, while statistical analysis techniques were applied to test the formulated hypotheses. Additionally, a comprehensive literature review was conducted to provide a theoretical foundation for our research and to contextualize our findings within existing knowledge. Through this methodological approach, we aimed to ensure the rigor and validity of our research findings. We extend our gratitude to the reviewers who provided valuable feedback and insights during the development of this monograph. Their contributions have undoubtedly enriched the quality of our work and have helped us refine our analysis and interpretations.

Community Disaster Resilience in Serbia

Community Disaster Resilience in Serbia, Vladimir M. Cvetković

In the face of natural disasters, communities are often the first line of defence, bearing the brunt of devastation while also displaying remarkable resilience in their aftermath. The ability of societies to withstand, adapt to, and recover from such crises is a testament to the strength and resourcefulness inherent in human communities. This monograph, titled "Community Disaster Resilience in Serbia," represents a concerted effort to delve into the underlying dynamics that shape a community's capacity to cope with natural disasters. Fo-cusing on Serbia, a country with a rich tapestry of social, economic, and demographic complexities, this research endeavors to unravel the intricate interplay between various socio-economic and demographic factors and community resilience. The research methodology employed in this study is grounded in a comprehensive quantitative approach, leveraging rigorous statistical analyses to explore the multifaceted dimensions of community disaster resilience. Through the administration of a carefully crafted questionnaire to 321 participants in January 2024, we sought to capture diverse perspectives and experiences, enriching our understanding of the complex socio-economic and demographic landscape of Serbia. At its core, this study recognizes the critical importance of understanding how factors such as income, employment status, marital status, education, risk perception, gender, and age intersect to influence a community's ability to withstand and recover from natural disasters. By shedding light on these nuanced relationships, we aim to equip policymakers, practitioners, and community leaders with evidence-based insights to enhance disaster preparedness and response efforts. A notable aspect of our methodology is the utilization of the snowball sampling method, which facilitated the organic expansion of our participant pool. By harnessing the networks and connections within communities, we were able to access a diverse array of voices, enriching our dataset and ensuring the robustness of our findings. Central to our inquiry is the exploration of how age, education, and gender intersect with broader social structures, capital, mechanisms, equity, diversity, and beliefs to shape community disaster resilience in Serbia. By elucidating these relationships, we aim to provide insights that can inform targeted interventions and policy initiatives aimed at bolstering community resilience across the country. This monograph holds significant importance in the field of disaster resilience research and practice for several reasons. Firstly, it fills a crucial gap in the existing literature by providing comprehensive insights into the impacts of demographic and socioeconomic factors on community disaster resilience, particularly within the context of Serbia. While studies on disaster resilience abound, there is a notable scarcity of research specifically examining the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on resilience in this region. Secondly, the findings of this research offer practical implications for policymakers, government agencies, non-governmental organisations, and community leaders involved in disaster management and resilience-building initiatives. By identifying key predictors and factors influencing community resilience, stakeholders can tailor interventions and strategies to address specific vulnerabilities and enhance the capacity of communities to withstand, adapt to, and recover from disasters effectively. Furthermore, the utilization of robust statistical methods and the comprehensive nature of the research design enhance the reliability and validity of the findings presented in this monograph. The employment of multivariate regression analysis allows for a nuanced understanding of the relationships between various predictors and different dimensions of community disaster resilience, providing valuable insights for both academics and practitioners. Moreover, by employing an adapted version of the ‘5Ssocial resilience framework, this research contributes to the advancement of theoretical frameworks and conceptual models in the field of disaster resilience. The application of such frameworks enables researchers and practitioners to systematically assess and evaluate the complex interplay between social, economic, and environmental factors shaping community resilience, thereby facilitating more informed decision-making and resource allocation. Overall, this monograph serves as a seminal contribution to the burgeoning field of disaster resilience, offering evidence-based insights and actionable recommendations for enhancing resilience-building efforts in Serbia and beyond. Its significance lies not only in its empirical findings but also in its potential to inform policy development, guide practice, and inspire further research in the pursuit of building more resilient and adaptive communities worldwide. As we embark on this intellectual journey, we extend our gratitude to all those who have contributed to this endeavor, from the participants who generously shared their insights to the researchers and practitioners whose expertise has guided our inquiry. We hope this monograph will serve as a valuable resource for academics, policymakers, and practitioners alike, fostering dialogue and collaboration in our collective efforts to build more resilient communities in Serbia and beyond. Conclusion: The resilience of social communities to natural disasters represents an important research area in the field of disaster studies. By enhancing the level of such resilience, the fundamental prerequisites for the safe functioning of society in various unforeseen events are achieved. This scientific monograph delves into the intricate dynamics of community disaster resilience, shedding light on the interplay between demographic and socioeconomic factors. Through a rigorous quantitative study, the research investigates how variables such as age, education, employment status, and property ownership influence the resilience of communities to disasters of varying magnitudes. Utilizing multivariate regression analysis, the study identifies key predictors across different dimensions of community disaster resilience. It uncovers nuanced insights, revealing the differential impact of demographic and socioeconomic factors on various aspects of resilience. Among the findings, age, education, employment status, and property ownership emerge as significant predictors, shaping the overall resilience profile of communities. The calculated mean value of the community disaster resilience index provides a comprehensive overview, indicating a modest level of resilience across the studied communities. Notably, the analysis highlights variations in resilience across different subscales, with social beliefs garnering the highest ratings and social structure scoring the lowest. This disparity underscores the complex nature of community resilience and the need for targeted interventions to address specific vulnerabilities. Furthermore, the research offers valuable insights into the prevalence of preventive measures adopted by communities to mitigate disaster risks. Epidemics, extreme temperatures, and storms emerge as the most common focus areas for preventive measures, reflecting societal priorities in disaster preparedness. Interestingly, the study also delves into societal perceptions of disaster resilience, revealing divergent attitudes towards different types of hazards. While epidemics, extreme temperatures, and drought are perceived to have higher resilience levels, volcanic eruptions, landslides, and tsunamis are viewed with comparatively lower confidence. This discrepancy in perception underscores the importance of understanding community attitudes and beliefs in shaping disaster resilience strategies. In essence, this monograph contributes to the growing body of knowledge on community disaster resilience by providing empirical evidence and nuanced insights into the factors influencing resilience levels. By identifying predictors, assessing resilience indices, and exploring societal perceptions, the research informs evidence-based approaches for enhancing community resilience and fostering sustainable disaster risk reduction strategies.Distinct subscales underscore variations, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions. Positive views on response services and community leadership coexist with a generally neutral stance on disaster preparedness. Social capital reflects mutual trust, with space for increased community engagement. Social mechanisms indicate positive attitudes but underscore the need for enhanced household disaster preparedness, risk perception, and citizen disaster awareness. High scores in addressing social injustices reveal positive attitudes, but lower ratings for specific programs suggest areas for improvement. Cultural aspects demonstrate positive attitudes towards traditions, faith, and cultural values, with challenges in trust during disasters and the role of religious leaders pointing to potential improvements. Correlations between education status, marital status, and various dimensions highlight nuanced relationships impacting community disaster resilience. The study offers a basis for focused interventions across a variety of criteria and sheds light on areas that might want improvement. By adding to our knowledge of Serbian community disaster resilience, this study helps practitioners and policymakers create focused interventions and promote a more just and resilient society that can withstand a variety of calamities. Aside from that, this study significantly advances our knowledge of community (social) resilience in the face of various natural disasters, with an emphasis on the effects of demographic and socioeconomic factors. The identification of key predictors such as age, education, employment, and property ownership provides researchers with a foundation for further investigations and analyses. The research results indicate the need for differentiated approaches in studying community resilience to various types of disasters, providing new insights into complex sociodemographic factors. This paper carries significant social implications that can be utilized in the development of policies and practices to enhance community (social) disaster resilience in Serbia. These results can be used as a starting point for the creation of educational initiatives, awareness-raising campaigns, and community support systems for anticipating and responding to various calamities. Results of the analysis across various dimensions of community resilience to disasters indicate a significant role of age as a predictor of social structure. These findings can be explained by the fact that older individuals, thanks to their previous life experiences, social networks, and spiritual beliefs, contribute to shaping the social structure of the community. Their prolonged exposure to disaster-related events allows them a subtler understanding of social structures and the effectiveness of responses in such situations. Further examinations also suggest a correlation between age and dimensions such as social structure, social mechanisms, social justice and diversity, as well as social beliefs. Subsequent analysis suggests that older participants have a positive association with higher ratings for social structure, while ratings for social mechanisms, social justice and diversity, as well as social beliefs, decrease as the age of participants progresses. This trend can be attributed to factors such as accumulated life experiences, historical perspectives, and deeper involvement in communal activities over time. Concurrently, education emerges as a key predictor for the sub-scale of social capital. Participants with a high school diploma consistently rate higher across dimensions including social structure, social mechanisms, and social justice and diversity compared to those with a university degree. This positive correlation can be attributed to increased social awareness, communication skills, and a broader understanding of community dynamics that come with higher education. Additionally, participants with a university education report higher ratings for social capital, preventive measures, and perception of disaster resilience compared to those with a high school diploma. These individuals with a university education likely experience higher levels of social connectedness, engagement, and support, thus being more inclined towards taking proactive measures and showing greater resilience perception in facing disasters compared to their peers with a high school diploma. Furthermore, employment has been shown as the most significant predictor for the sub-scales of social mechanisms, social justice and diversity, while property ownership is a key predictor for the sub-scale of social beliefs. Additional analysis reveals associations between employment and various variables, including social structure, social mechanisms, social justice and diversity, as well as social beliefs. Unemployed participants often give higher ratings regarding social structure, equality/diversity, and beliefs compared to employed participants. This study further demonstrates that individuals who own personal property consistently give lower ratings across various dimensions, including social capital, social beliefs, preventive measures, and resilience to disasters, compared to individuals who own property within family ownership. Detailed analysis reveals that participants with below-average income consistently assign lower ratings across various dimensions. Specifically, compared to those with average income, participants with below-average income give lower ratings for social mechanisms, social justice and diversity, and social beliefs. Additional analysis reveals that individuals residing in households with two members usually give lower ratings to social structures, while those in households with more than four members tend to give higher ratings to social mechanisms, social justice and diversity, as well as social beliefs. Furthermore, the research indicates a correlation between marital status and ratings, with single individuals consistently giving higher ratings across different dimensions compared to those who are in a relationship or divorced. This relationship between marital status and various dimensions may indicate that the existence of singles has specific attitudes or behaviors that contribute to a more positive valuation of social capital, preventive measures, and disaster resilience. The average value of the index measuring community (social) resilience to disasters, calculated on a Likert scale from 1 to 5, is in the lower range of values. This implies that the overall level of resilience to disasters in the community is relatively moderate. The proximity of values to the lower end of the scale suggests potential room for improvement in community resilience to disasters. Further analysis shows that preventive measures are most commonly taken before dangers such as epidemics, extreme temperatures, and storms. The perception of society's resilience is highest against dangers from epidemics, followed by extreme temperatures and drought. Participants express a relatively high level of confidence in society's ability to cope with epidemics, extreme temperatures, and drought. A detailed analysis of all obtained research results indicates that the general hypothesis predicting a statistically significant correlation between socio-economic factors and social resilience to disasters can be confirmed. Based on the defined hypotheses, data analyses show and confirm two specific assertions: a) the influence of sociological factors on the level of social resilience to disasters is confirmed; b) the influence of economic factors on the level of social resilience to disasters is also confirmed. These results direct our understanding of the relationship between different aspects of socio-economic factors and the ability to withstand disasters in society. On a societal level, the results of this research point to key areas where there is a need to enhance the capacity to resist and overcome the effects of disasters. From a fairness perspective, the focus should be on the older population, as a group that has been shown to be a significant factor in social resilience. Raising awareness and providing resources for the elderly can be crucial in encouraging their active participation in the community and increasing overall social resilience. Tailoring educational campaigns and programs to groups with lower levels of education can also be part of a strategy to increase awareness and preparedness in these population groups. Education about disaster prevention and response measures can significantly impact readiness and information provision, thereby raising the level of social resilience. The scientific implications of this research can enrich the field of social sciences and disaster studies. These studies can serve as a starting point for more detailed analyses of factors contributing to social resilience. New studies can explore specific aspects of older citizens or individuals with low education, contributing to a better understanding of their role in disaster preparedness and response processes. Ultimately, the applications of the results of this research can be broad and include support for the development of policies, programs, and interventions in the field of disaster management. Scientists and practitioners can use this knowledge to better direct resources and efforts towards building a more resilient and prepared society to face the challenges of disasters.

Human resource development for environmental security and emergency management

Nikolić, N., Cvetković, M.V., Ivanov, A. (2023). Human resource development for environmental security and emergency management. Belgrade: Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management.

In an age where the intricate interplay between human activities and the environment demands careful consideration, "Human Resource Management in Environmental Security" emerges as a comprehensive exploration of the dynamic relationship between human resources and environmental sustainability. This academic endeavor seeks to navigate the complexities inherent in managing human capital within the framework of environmental protection. In the pursuit of securing our environment, the traditional paradigms of human resource management must evolve to meet the challenges posed by climate change, resource depletion, and ecological imbalances. Globalization introduces an array of new challenges and imposes escalating requirements concerning environmental quality, creating an imperative for innovative solutions. In response, human resource management becomes a proactive force, necessitating the initiation of strategic initiatives aimed at improving the quality of human potential expression through the thoughtful allocation and maximization of resources. The complexity inherent in determining coordination and subordination in the functioning of the environment alongside other systems is defined by a strategic conflict. This conflict is intricately conditioned, on one hand, by the economic needs of local governments striving for progress and, on the other hand, by the imperative of ensuring the sustainability of the environment. Human resources management emerges as a pivotal link in addressing, navigating, and ultimately overcoming this intricate strategic conflict. The term "human capital" is inextricably linked to Human Resources, serving as a nuanced reflection of their physical, spiritual, and emotional characteristics. The result of engaging human resources in the environment transcends mere utilitarianism and could not hitherto be accurately identified with their overall resources. Detecting, targeting, and engaging the latent human potential in environmental protection emerges as a profound challenge, requiring a multidimensional approach. Provided it is secured by robust environmental support, the "human capital" owned by a unit of local government transforms into a potential driving force of high-value performances within the environment and the jurisdiction covered by the local government. The role of human resources in environmental protection is not just significant but indispensable. Consequently, there is an immense need to focus on comprehending the behavior of human resources and identifying opportunities for their holistic development. This emphasis is crucial as it positions human resources as a decisive factor influencing and affecting the continuity in achieving environmental sustainability. Human resources within local governments are dynamic entities capable of learning, expressing the ability to create, acquire, and transmit new knowledge and concepts. They do so successfully by adapting these innovations to their neighborhoods, their environment, and their overarching intentions. In line with the previously stated premises, there exists a pressing need for a scientific breakthrough in the modelling of human resources. This breakthrough aims to position human resources as the true value of each respective local government, both concerning the integrity of the scope of their business activities and, especially, when it comes to environmental protection. This study represents a significant step in that transformative direction. The created model of human resource management in environmental protection is not just a theoretical construct; it's a pragmatic concept that fundamentally alters the character of the basic assumptions about human resources for the environment. This initiative marks the initiation of a change in the established context, setting the stage for a more sustainable and environmentally conscious future. This book is a collaborative effort that brings together scholars, researchers, and practitioners to shed light on the multifaceted dimensions of human resource management in the context of environmental security. By delving into theoretical frameworks, empirical studies, and practical applications, it endeavors to provide a holistic understanding of how human resources can be strategically leveraged to address environmental issues. The chapters within this volume address a spectrum of topics, including motivational factors for environmental stewardship, sustainable resource management, and the role of local self-government in mitigating environmental externalities. Through rigorous academic inquiry and thoughtful analysis, the contributors contribute to the growing body of knowledge that informs both scholarship and practical approaches to human resource management for environmental sustainability. We extend our heartfelt appreciation to the authors who have dedicated their expertise to this scientific field, the reviewers whose insightful feedback enhanced the quality of the content, and the contributors whose diverse perspectives enrich the discourse. We hope that the insights presented in these pages stimulate critical thinking, inspire innovative solutions, and contribute to the ongoing dialogue on the crucial intersection of human resource management, environmental security and emergency management. Conclusion: Human resource management in the context of environmental protection involves overseeing the operational aspects of local self-government to effectively address and minimize environmental impacts. The primary goal is to curtail or entirely eliminate adverse environmental effects while concurrently fostering enhanced quality standards and the establishment of sustainable development, placing individuals at the forefront of this transformative process. The imperative to elevate human resources management is underscored by an educational dimension, emphasizing the cultivation of a mindset among local self-government employees and individuals that encourages maximal contribution. This educational facet imparts insights on instigating motivational factors directed towards environmental well-being, judicious utilization of natural resources, pollution reduction strategies, and the attainment of sustainability in the management of natural resources and waste. In essence, this approach advocates for a comprehensive understanding of how each local self-government employee and every citizen can contribute optimally. It delves into the initiation of motivational factors geared towards environmental welfare, instructs on the prudent use of natural resources, advocates for pollution reduction measures, and promotes sustainable practices in the manipulation of natural resources and waste through effective management actions. The research findings underscore the crucial need for a management-oriented approach to human resources dedicated to environmental preservation. This entails a paradigm shift in harnessing the human potential within Local Government Units (LGUs) in alignment with symbiotic ecological, social, and economic development. Recognizing the pragmatic constraints faced by LGUs, the transformation of human potential can lead to the creation of a new, superior-quality, and more efficacious working and living environment. This approach envisions a harmonious interplay between human activities and the environment, fostering a sustainable and resilient community within the realistic confines of local self-government entities.Human resource management is located in the zone of success, when its strategic performance is located in the zone of sustainability. Successful strategic performances in the time perspective indicate the maturity of local self-government in the social sense of the word. Maturity is the result of achieved, previously established goals as a product of effective leadership and teamwork, business and environmental practices, which are fully integrated into socially responsible behavior. The key support for strategic performance, which carries the attribute of success, is provided by the LGU organization created on the basis of internal and external analysis and constant human resources management insight into the key success factors of local self-government functioning, among which the environmental protection factor stands out as one of exceptional importance. The contemporary landscape of environmental protection within local self-government necessitates a paradigm shift in the approach to human resource management. This shift entails adopting a novel way of thinking and working that not only facilitates high individual, group (team), and organizational work performance but also aligns seamlessly with the imperatives of sustainable development. In this evolving context, the possession and sustainability of knowledge emerge as pivotal elements for effective human resources management, as strategic thinking and effective decision-making hinge on the mastery of knowledge management. Within the realm of environmental protection, the traditional modes of operation may prove inadequate in addressing the multifaceted challenges posed by ecological concerns. Therefore, human resource management must transcend conventional boundaries and embrace innovative strategies that empower individuals, teams, and the organization as a whole to excel in their efforts toward environmental preservation. At the core of this transformation is the recognition that knowledge is not merely a static asset but a dynamic and evolving force. The continuous acquisition, application, and sharing of knowledge become instrumental in navigating the complexities of environmental issues. Human resource management, in this context, should foster a culture of learning and adaptability, ensuring that employees are equipped with the latest information and skills required for effective environmental stewardship. Strategic thinking, a cornerstone of progressive human resource management, hinges on the ability to harness and leverage knowledge. The integration of knowledge management practices becomes indispensable, as it facilitates a comprehensive understanding of environmental dynamics, emerging trends, and innovative solutions. This, in turn, enables local self-government entities to formulate strategic plans that are not only responsive to current challenges but also resilient in the face of future uncertainties. In essence, the sustainability of knowledge within human resources becomes a linchpin for fostering a forward-thinking and environmentally conscious workforce. It serves as a catalyst for cultivating a strategic mindset, empowering employees to proactively contribute to environmental protection initiatives. As local self-government entities grapple with the intricacies of environmental management, an enlightened approach to human resource management emerges as a linchpin, guiding organizations toward a future where ecological sustainability is seamlessly woven into the fabric of daily operations. It is the result of the effort made in terms of: the ability to think logically, analytically and quantitatively, that is, to form conclusions; experiential linking of theory with practice, that is, seeing real change at the right moment; the ability to make strides in terms of intellectual and practical flexibility and constructive criticism as a condition for preventing explicit assertions and fear of unconfirmed knowledge, which means ensuring scientificity. Therefore, during the preparation of the doctoral dissertation, all the stated views were taken into account and a new strategic model adapted to the real relationship between the needs and OPPORTUNITIES of the LGU was created. The aforementioned set of scientific research results covers this doctoral dissertation through seven groupings of conclusions, according to the basic and special hypotheses of the scientific work. The organization and competence of human resources engaged in managing the protection of the environment and working environment in local self-governments affects (is a correlate) the level of quality and development of the environment in their local communities - it was confirmed by research in the doctoral dissertation "Management of human resources in environmental protection ". The results of the research show a high percentage of the management of local self-government units (84.8%), who are aware of the necessity of improving human resources, and who estimate that the management of human resources in environmental protection would contribute to the quality of the working environment and the sustainable development of the environment in their local communities. Using the χ2 test and the contingency coefficient, a statistically significant connection was established between the management's awareness of the importance of improving the quality level and the development of the local community by improving human resources (χ2 = 15,245 df = 4, p = 0,004, C = 0.36) and the environment (χ2 = 20,955 df = 4, p = 0.000, C = 0.41) depending on the size of the LGU. Also, the correlation analysis of the items within the scale shows that there is a positive and statistically significant correlation (r = 0.808) between the LGU management's attitude that the management of human resources in environmental protection will contribute to the sustainable development of the LGU, efficiency and quality of the environment. The management's responsibility towards the importance of human resource management in environmental protection is reflected in the clear majority view of the LGU management on the necessity of changes in human resource management and the readiness to accept new models of environmental protection with the aim of improving the working and living environment. The results of the research show that the orientation of LGU management and their decision-making towards the sustainability of local self-governments is greater today than ever. The functional model of organizing services for managing environmental protection in local self-government units significantly contributes to raising the quality and development of the ecological characteristics of their communities - it was confirmed by the research process. The research results show that 88.6% of LGUs see the management of human resources in environmental protection, through the new functional model of sustainable development of local self-governments, as a significant possibility for its improvement. The research showed that the top managers of LGUs agree that the management of human resources in environmental protection represents a significant opportunity to improve the quality of the environment, while the functional model of organization is independent of the size of LGUs (χ2 is not statistically significant, p = 0.436) and from the planned funds for the training and development of employees in the field of environmental protection (χ2 is not statistically significant, p = 0.137). The organization and competence of human resources in environmental protection is the foundation that opens the possibility for human resources to effectively step towards sustainable development, that is, a quality working and sustainable environment in the area of local self-government. Continuous education of the population of local communities in the field of environmental protection improves the level of quality and development of ecological characteristics of their environments - it was confirmed by the research process. The attitude of the LGU management in as many as 98.1% confirms the claim that it is impossible to implement the environmental protection strategy without education and the active involvement of human resources in the process. This attitude is independent of the size of the LGU, because by applying the χ2 test, it was determined that there is no statistical dependence between them (χ2 is not statistically significant, p = 0.232). Also, the correlation analysis of the items within the scale established a positive correlation (r = 0.336) between this statement and the variable of permanent information and education of the population about environmental protection as a factor in improving the solution of environmental protection problems. The bearers of the development process from idea to implementation are human resources. Their role in the entire process is irreplaceable. For this reason, the results of this research indicate the importance and understanding of the importance of continuous education of the population of local communities in the field of environmental protection and their impact on improving the level of quality and development of ecological characteristics of their environments. Education of school-age children in local communities in the field of environmental protection improves the level of quality and development of ecological characteristics of their environments - it was confirmed by the research process. The research results show the opinion of 93.3% of LGU management that additional environmental (informal) education of children would contribute to the sustainable development of local self-government. Applying the χ2 test, no statistical significance was established between the high percentage of such claims and the size of the local self-government (χ2 is not significant, p = 0.408). Correlation analysis of the items within the scale shows that there are positive and statistically significant correlations between this claim and the attitude of the LGU management that the development of ecological awareness of the population would contribute to raising the efficiency of the management and environmental protection system (r = 0.490), and the attitude that permanent information and training of the population would on environmental protection would help solve environmental protection problems (r = 0.452). The development of the system of environmental protection and human resource management in environmental protection must be supported by the emission of ecological knowledge. Formal teaching content alone is not enough. Informal education with an emphasis on practical training shows significant achievements (more details in attachment 1, case study JSL Lucani). This development conditions the formation of the concept of the chain of ecological knowledge, as a tool relevant for understanding and understanding the relations of movement and development of knowledge within each individual sector of the environment. The social responsibility of local self-government bodies significantly contributes to raising the quality and development of the ecological characteristics of their communities - it was confirmed by the research process. The results of the research show the position of the management that the local self-government bodies, with their socially responsible actions in the field of environmental protection, can significantly contribute to the improvement of the quality and development of the ecological characteristics of the given local communities. The results of the χ2 test, at the level of statistical significance (p<0.01), show that the socially responsible behavior of LGUs expressed through planning, development and environmental protection (χ2 = 20.955, df = 4, p = 0.000, C = 0.41) and human of resources (χ2 = 15.245, df = 4, p = 0.004, C = 0.36) depends on the size of the local government. Social responsibility expressed in such a way forwards knowledge that will contribute to a better understanding of sectoral processes of the environment (for example, water, waste management and others) (understanding process) and to be transferred to a higher level, i.e. the degree that results in a decision on how to act correctly, when it comes to mitigating or completely eliminating environmental externalities (wisdom process). As many as 98.10% of local self-governments express their willingness to improve the environmental protection system in their local self-government, which indicates the increased social responsibility of local self-government bodies. Also, the correlation analysis within the elements of social responsibility shows positive and statistically significant correlations between variables related to the willingness of local self-government to support and organize additional education of employees on environmental protection (r = 0.532). Planned material investments of local self-governments in the protection of the living and working environment significantly contribute to raising the quality and development of the ecological characteristics of their communities - it was confirmed by the research process. The obtained results show that 87.6% of LGUs believe that it is necessary to improve the management of human resources. The χ2 test determined a statistically significant connection between the need to improve human resources management in LGUs and certain characteristics of LGUs, such as the existence/non-existence of a human resource development service (χ2 = 14.517, df = 4, p = 0.006, C = 0.35) and planned material resources for training and improvement of employees in the field of environmental protection (χ2 = 32.669, df = 7, p = 0.000, C = 0.49). The need to improve human resources management is more pronounced in local governments where there is no human resources development service, and the findings should be interpreted in light of the fact established by this research that 86.27% of RS local governments do not have a human resources development service. On the other hand, the results show that the attitude of the management of local self-governments regarding the need to improve human resources management depends on the planned material investment in training and improvement of employees in the field of environmental protection: in local governments, in which material investment in environmental improvement of employees is planned, there is a significant less need for changes and improvement of human resource management. As a result, the level of quality, first of all the working environment and then the ecological characteristics of their communities, is at a higher level.For the above reasons, the obtained research results are useful, because based on them, measures to improve human resource management (HRM) and environmental protection can be implemented. The existence of an environmental protection strategy within the local self-government units significantly contributes to raising the quality and development of the ecological characteristics of their communities - it was confirmed by the research process. The results of the research indicate that in 47% of local self-governments there is no established service for planning, development and environmental protection. This indicates the absence of an adequate environmental protection strategy in almost half of LGUs. The χ2 test, at the threshold of statistical significance (p< 0.01), determined a statistically significant association between the size of local self-government and the existence of a strategy for planning, development and environmental protection (χ2 = 20.955, df = 4, p = 0.000, C = 0.41 ), where the level of quality and development of local communities in which there is an environmental protection strategy is at a significantly higher level. The awareness of local self-government management must be oriented towards the premise that strategic commitment to ecological principles and standards of the working and living environment is a privilege, not a sacrifice. The managerial structure of human resources of the local self-government should, as determined by the research, balance human resources, that is, human resources management, with environmental protection, with the aim of achieving sustainable development and a sustainable future of people in the area of local self-government. In order to successfully realize the stated premises, the managerial structure must be a competent structure. Achieving competence (a state that indicates that the management of human resources in environmental protection should be performed in a special way, with high performance) is possible if an effective relationship is established between environmental resources and the ability of the managerial structure (functionally based) to manage them. , together with the immediate executors, use efficiently and effectively, in accordance with the existing opportunities. The development of human resources of the local self-government unit in the context of the environment is conditioned by the existence of a framework for defining environmental protection, but also by the existence and redefinition of environmental protection goals. The development of human resources must also leave room for flexible behavior if conditions of discontinuity arise, i.e. unexpected changes in terms of environmental protection. The expediency of creating the development determination of human resources and its primordial perspective lie, first of all, in the justification of the key goals of local self-government: vision, mission and strategic goals. Reconciling the differences between the needs and opportunities of the developed countries towards which we strive, and the transition processes that marked our approach to this issue, a completely new approach to this challenge was created. Based on the available information, scientific literature, this kind of research has not been carried out in Serbia, and for this reason it can be claimed that the obtained results are significant not only as scientific knowledge but also as a guideline for real practical solutions. Limitations in the preparation of this dissertation were related to extremely large differences in the size of local self-government units. This caused a somewhat more difficult and laborious approach to the management of large local governments, but perseverance, on the one hand, and exceptional willingness of the management to participate in this research, on the other, led to the realization of the research. The direction of further research is reflected in the deepening of this topic, which with the dissertation "Management of human resources in environmental protection" opened a new approach to the realization of the general strategy of sustainable development of the environment. The most important thing in the further course of future research is the assessment of the results and significance of the implementation of the proposed strategic concept in the form of a model of human resource management in the environmental protection of local governments.

OTPORNOST NA KATASTROFE - VODIČ ZA PREVENCIJU, REAGOVANJE I OPORAVAK (Disaster Resilience - Guide for Prevention, Response, and Recovery)

OTPORNOST NA KATASTROFE - VODIČ ZA PREVENCIJU, REAGOVANJE I OPORAVAK

Dear readers, we are pleased to present to you the book "Disaster Resilience - A Guide to Prevention, Response, and Recovery." This book is intended for everyone who wishes to better prepare for unforeseen situations, whether caused by natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, or wildfires, or anthropogenic disasters such as fires, workplace accidents, terrorist attacks, or pandemics. We live in a world that is constantly changing, and we often face challenges that require quick and efficient responses. It is designed to help you understand various aspects of disasters, recognize risks, and prepare for them. Through it, you will learn how to protect yourself, your family, and your community, how to react in unforeseen situations, and how to recover after a disaster. There is nothing more important than the safety and well-being of those we love, so it is important to be informed and prepared. This book provides you with practical advice, planning steps, and concrete guidelines to help you be prepared for whatever the future may bring. Through detailed descriptions and practical examples, you will learn how to deal with different scenarios, circumstances, and situations that may arise in emergencies. The author of this book has dedicated much time and effort to provide you with the most important information about disasters and how to deal with them. Based on expert knowledge and experiences from various fields, these tips are grounded in the latest research and best practices in disaster management. We hope that you will use this book as a resource to enhance your own resilience and protection, but also as a means of education and empowerment for your communities. Together, we can create safer and more resilient communities, ready for the challenges the future brings. In this book, you will find information on the basic steps to take to protect and prepare yourself for disasters. You will learn specific advice on how to create an emergency plan for your family, what to have in your home in case of a disaster, and how to behave during such circumstances. Additionally, we will consider the importance of recovery after a disaster and how to recover with minimal consequences. This guide not only encompasses a series of practical tips; it also opens up space for expert discussion on resilience and disaster preparedness. Involving young, skilled, and ambitious scientific collaborators in writing domestic and international projects, as well as conducting scientific research, is a step towards building an expert community dedicated to disaster prevention, response, and recovery. Through risk analysis, studying effective response strategies, and researching new technologies, this community contributes to a broader understanding and enhancement of society's resilience to unforeseen events. This multidisciplinary approach, supported by expert knowledge and experiences, is crucial for building sustainable disaster prevention and management systems. I also want to emphasize that this book is more than just a practical guide; it is a key to discovering resourcefulness and preparedness in unforeseen circumstances. Summarized in this guide are the knowledge and skills that will teach you how to protect yourself, your loved ones, and your community, providing you with security in a constantly changing world. It is not just an ordinary manual but a call to action, an inspiration for thought, and a key to transforming our understanding of resilience. With an expert and comprehensive approach, it explores different aspects of disasters, identifies risks, and prepares us for proper action in such situations. This guide is not only a resource for personal resilience but also a foundation for building communities ready for the challenges of the future. Are you ready to discover the world of disaster resilience? Start your journey with this unique book that will encourage you to think, act, and become part of the global resilience community. In light of the accelerated pace of changes shaping our environment, "Disaster Resilience" stands as a tool for understanding the complexity of modern life. Whether facing floods, earthquakes, workplace accidents, terrorist attacks, or pandemics, this guide offers valuable instructions for assessing risks and responding effectively. What sets this book apart is its practical orientation. Not only does it provide information on how to behave during a disaster, but it also prompts you to consider steps you can take in advance to prepare and become more resilient to increasingly frequent and devastating disasters. Furthermore, the book emphasizes the importance of the recovery process after a disaster, providing guidance on how to cope with stress and restore normalcy in life. Special emphasis is placed on the role of community in building resilience. This book encourages readers to think about their role in a broader context and how together we can create safer and more resilient communities. Through a text enriched with examples, you discover specific steps you can take to contribute to strengthening collective resilience to disasters. The author's expert approach stems from the experience and knowledge of experts from various disaster studies fields. Their commitment to providing relevant information and advice is reflected in a thorough examination of the latest research and application of best practices. Each piece of advice and guidance is supported by expert knowledge, and the multidisciplinary approach provides a comprehensive insight into the complexity of the challenges we face. May this book, "Disaster Resilience - A Guide to Prevention, Response, and Recovery," be your personal guide in preparation, response, and recovery from disasters caused by natural and anthropogenic hazards. Dragi čitaoci, sa zadovoljstvom vam predstavljamo knjigu ,,Otpornost na katastrofe – Vodič za Prevenciju, Reagovanje i Oporavak”. Ova knjiga je namenjena svima koji žele da se bolje pripreme za nepredviđene situacije, bilo da su izazvane prirodnim katastrofama poput zemljotresa, poplava ili šumskim požarima ili antropogenim katastrofama kao što su požari, nezgode na radu, teroristički napadi ili pandemije. Živimo u svetu koji se neprestano menja i često se suočavamo sa izazovima koji zahtevaju brzo i efikasno reagovanje. Osmišljena je kako bi vam pomogla da razumete različite aspekte katastrofa, da prepoznate rizike i da se pripremite za njih. Kroz nju ćete saznati kako da zaštitite sebe, svoje porodice i zajednicu, kako da reagujete u nepredviđenim situacijama i kako da se oporavite nakon katastrofe. Nema ništa važnije od bezbednosti i dobrobiti onih koje volimo i zato je važno da budemo informisani i spremni. Ova knjiga vam pruža praktične savete, korake za planiranje i konkretne smernice koje će vam pomoći da budete spremni za sve što budućnost može doneti. Kroz detaljne opise i praktične primere, naučićete kako da se nosite sa različitim scenarijima, okolnostima i situacijama koje se mogu javiti u vanrednim situacijama. Autor ove knjige je posvetio mnogo vremena i truda kako bi vam pružio najvažnije informacije o katastrofama i kako da se nosite sa njima. Zasnovani na stručnim saznanjima i iskustvima stručnjaka iz različitih oblasti, ovi saveti su utemeljeni na najnovijim istraživanjima i najboljim praksama u oblasti katastrofa. Nadamo se da ćete ovu knjigu koristiti kao resurs za unapređenje vaše sopstvene otpornosti i zaštite, ali takođe i kao sredstvo za edukaciju i osnaživanje vaših zajednica. Zajedno, možemo da stvorimo bezbednije i otpornije zajednice, spremne za izazove koje budućnost donosi. U knjizi ćete pronaći informacije o osnovnim koracima koje treba preduzeti kako biste se zaštitili i pripremili za katastrofe. Upoznaćete se sa konkretnim savetima o tome kako da kreirate plan za vanredne situacije za vašu porodicu, šta treba da imate u kući za slučaj katastrofe i kako da se ponašate tokom samih takvih okolnosti. Osim toga, razmotrićemo i važnost obnove nakon katastrofe i kako da se oporavite sa što manje posledica. Ovaj vodič ne obuhvata samo niz pratičnih saveta; on takođe otvara prostor za stručnu diskusiju o otpornosti i pripremljenosti za katastrofe. Uključivanje mladih, stručnih i ambicioznih naučnih saradnika u pisanje domaćih i međunarodnih projekata, kao i u sprovođenje naučnih istraživanja, predstavlja korak ka izgradnji stručne zajednice posvećene prevenciji, reagovanju i oporavku od katastrofa. Kroz analize rizika, proučavanje efikasnih strategija reagovanja i istraživanje novih tehnologija, ova zajednica doprinosi širem razumevanju i unapređenju otpornosti društava na nepredviđene događaje. Ovaj multidisciplinarni pristup, podržan stručnim saznanjima i iskustvima, ključan je za izgradnju održivih sistema prevencije i upravljanja u katastrofama. Želim da napomenem i to da je ova knjiga više od samo praktičnog vodiča; ona je ključ za otkrivanje snalažljivosti i pripremljenosti u nepredviđenim okolnostima. Sažeta u ovom vodiču su znanja i veštine koje će vas naučiti kako da zaštitite sebe, svoje najbliže i vašu zajednicu, pružajući vam bezbednost u svetu koji se neprestano menja. Ona nije običan priručnik već je poziv na akciju, inspiracija za razmišljanje i ključ za transformaciju našeg shvatanja o otpornosti. Sa stručnim i sveobuhvatnim pristupom, istražuje različite aspekte katastrofa, prepoznaje rizike i priprema nas za pravilno postupanje u takvim situacijama. Ovaj vodič nije samo resurs za ličnu otpornost, već i temelj za izgradnju zajednica spremnih na izazove koje budućnost nosi. Spremni ste za otkrivanje sveta otpornosti na katastrofe? Započnite svoje usavršavanje sa ovom jedinstvenom knjigom koja će vas podstaći da razmišljate, delujete i postanete deo globalne zajednice otpornosti. U svetlu ubrzanog tempa promena koje oblikuju naše okruženje, ,,Otpornost na katastrofe” postavlja se kao sredstvo za razumevanje kompleksnosti savremenog života. Bez obzira da li se suočavate sa poplavama, zemljotresima, nesrećama na radu, terorističkim napadima ili pandemijama, ovaj vodič nudi dragoceno uputstvo za sagledavanje rizika i efikasno reagovanje. Ono što izdvaja ovu knjigu jeste njena praktična orijentacija. Ne samo da vam pruža informacije o tome kako se ponašati tokom katastrofe, već vas navodi da razmislite o koracima koje možete preduzeti unapred kako biste se pripremili i bili otporniji na katastrofe koje će biti sve učestalije i razornije. Osim toga, knjiga naglašava važnost procesa oporavka nakon katastrofe, pružajući smernice o tome kako se nositi sa stresom i obnavljati normalnost u životu. Poseban naglasak stavljen je na ulogu zajednice u izgradnji otpornosti. Ova knjiga podstiče čitaoce da razmišljaju o svojoj ulozi u širem kontekstu i kako zajedno možemo stvoriti bezbednije i otpornije zajednice. Kroz primerima obogaćen tekst, otkrivate konkretne korake koje možete preduzeti kako biste doprineli jačanju kolektivne otpornosti na katastrofe. Stručni pristup autora proizilazi iz iskustva i saznanja stručnjaka iz različitih oblasti studija katastrofa. Njihova posvećenost pružanju relevantnih informacija i saveta ogleda se u temeljnom proučavanju najnovijih istraživanja i primeni najboljih praksi. Svaki savet i smernica podržani su stručnim znanjem, a multidisciplinarni pristup pruža sveobuhvatan uvid u kompleksnost izazova sa kojima se suočavamo. Neka vam ova knjiga ,,Otpornost na katastrofe – Vodič za prevenciju, reagovanje i oporavak bude lični vodič u pripremi, reagovanju i oporavku u katastrofama izazvanim prirodnim i antropogenim opasnostima

ISTORIJSKI RAZVOJ NAUČNO-STRUČNOG DRUŠTVA ZA UPRAVLJANJE RIZICIMA U VANREDNIM SITUACIJAMA (The Historical Development of the Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management)

Cvetković, V. (2023). Istorijski razvoj Naučno-stručnog društva za upravljanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama. Beograd: Naučno-stručno društvo za upravljanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama.

Introduction of science and expertise into disaster risk management represents a pivotal stage in modern society facing the challenges of increasingly frequent and devastating emergencies. These challenges, regardless of their nature, are becoming ubiquitous, often inevitable, and require a serious and proactive approach to ensure the safety and stability of our communities. This is particularly pronounced in the context of more frequent natural disasters, technological incidents, and growing risks and threats. For this reason, the Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management (SPSD-RM) was established in June 2018. The initiative to establish this society stemmed from the recognition of the crucial role of non-governmental organizations and civil society in disaster risk management processes. Their proactive contribution to public policy, enhancing preparedness and resilience, as well as assisting those affected, deserves special recognition and support. Professor Dr. Vladimir M. Cvetković led this initiative, whose proposal for establishing SPSD-RM promised to gather relevant experts and practitioners from Serbia and the wider region. Their common goal was to enhance the theoretical and practical foundation of disaster risk management, aiming to provide specific guidance and support to decision-makers at the local level and leaders in emergency management processes. This initiative lays the groundwork for interdisciplinary collaboration and integration of knowledge in combating persistent risks, while also demonstrating the crucial need for joint initiatives to preserve the safety and well-being of our communities. Managing these risks requires a holistic approach involving numerous sectors and stakeholders, as well as multidisciplinary collaboration among scientists, practitioners, and decision-makers. Through a detailed examination of the establishment and development of the Society, the book provides insights into the key steps and initiatives that led to the formation and growth of SPSD-RM. The founding assembly, held on that day, formalized the establishment of this society, which brought together experts from various faculties, including the Faculty of Security, the University of Criminalistics and Police Studies, the Faculty of Geography, and the Faculty of Forestry. The professors unanimously adopted the Statute and established the Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management, known as the Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management. Education is a key component of successful disaster risk management. Through training and education programs, SPSD-RM works to empower individuals and institutions to adequately prepare for unforeseen situations. At the same time, it promotes awareness among citizens of the necessity to enhance their disaster preparedness. This book thoroughly explores how training and education have become integral parts of the Society's programs, contributing to capacity building and disaster prevention. Collaboration between science and practice is crucial for effective disaster risk management. SPSD-RM successfully integrates theoretical research and empirical insights, enabling decision-makers and emergency managers to make informed decisions. Through the analysis of field examples, this book demonstrates how collaboration among scientists, practitioners, and government representatives contributes to improving emergency management. The International Institute for Disaster Research, established under the auspices of the Society, serves as a key point for promoting scientific research in the field of disaster studies. This institution not only conducts research but also facilitates international cooperation and legal frameworks in disaster-related fields. Through this book, we explore how the Institute has become a central player in generating scientific data and promoting global cooperation in disaster studies. The International Institute for Disaster Research sets high standards in scientific research, focusing on disaster phenomenology and hazards, disaster preparedness and mitigation, disaster protection and rescue, disaster recovery, disaster risk management, international cooperation, and legal frameworks in disaster-related fields. Its mission is to ensure that the latest knowledge is applied in the field to protect people and communities from unpredictable events. The Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management (SPSD-RM) is a non-governmental, non-profit organization aimed at advancing theoretical knowledge in the field of disaster risk management and conducting research that will have a deep and lasting impact. This society is dedicated to organizing conferences, launching journals, providing training, and conducting risk assessments to create better preparedness for future challenges. In this book, readers will have the opportunity to explore the research journey and achievements of the Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management, as well as the International Institute for Disaster Research. This book is a collection of papers, research, and knowledge that has emerged through the dedicated work of members of this organization and is a valuable source of information for all those committed to improving disaster risk management. Through this book, we hope that readers will gain a deeper understanding and inspiration for further research and action in the field of disaster risk management. This book is dedicated to all those working to build a safer world and contribute to reducing the risk of disasters. The involvement of experts and practitioners is a key link in the development of the Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management, whose dedicated work and vision have contributed to improving disaster risk management and promoting safety in broader society. The Society has made a significant contribution to the scientific community and education through the publication of various publications, including scientific monographs, textbooks, and collections, thus enhancing understanding and access to disaster risk management, maintaining high publishing standards. The goals of SPSD-RM, as defined in its Statute, encompass a wide range of activities ranging from research and education to promoting preventive measures and supporting communities in coping with disasters. At the core of these goals lies a deep commitment to the safety and well-being of people, both in Serbia and globally. Through research and analysis of disasters, providing education, organizing conferences, and many other activities, SPSD-RM has become a key player in disaster risk management and emergencies. One of the important steps towards achieving these goals was the establishment of the International Journal - "International Journal of Disaster Risk Management", which has become a platform for exchanging the latest knowledge and research in this field. This journal has become a reference point for experts and researchers worldwide, enhancing global understanding and access to disaster risk management. SPSD-RM also actively works on applying for and implementing national and international projects, research, and campaigns aimed at reducing disaster risks. Through these activities, the society lays the groundwork for better preparedness and response to disasters in the future. By organizing scientific conferences, SPSD-RM opens doors for the exchange of ideas, experiences, and best practices in disaster risk management. These events are often characterized by a multidisciplinary approach, bringing together experts from various fields to work together to address complex problems. In the spirit of community commitment, SPSD-RM also plays a key role in raising awareness among citizens about the necessity of disaster preparedness. Through various campaigns and programs, the society seeks to empower citizens to recognize risks and take steps to protect themselves. This book allows us to explore the development and achievements of this valuable society, whose members are dedicated to protecting human lives and property in emergencies. Through the efforts and contributions of members of this society, we can better understand how a modern approach to disaster risk management is shaped. The historical development of the Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management (SPSD-RM) is the story of a community of experts, researchers, practitioners, and students who have together built a better future. This organization has evolved and progressed thanks to the dedication and enthusiasm of its members. Without their support and engagement, this society would not have achieved what it is today. In light of the increasingly frequent and serious challenges posed by natural disasters and emergencies, we all have a role to play in shaping a safer future. We invite all experts, researchers, decision-makers, practitioners, students, and those interested in this field to join SPSD-RM and contribute to the further development of the organization. Your contribution can range from active participation in research, organizing training and conferences , to providing support to communities at risk of disasters. Research, education, and practice are the three pillars on which this organization is based, and each role is essential. By joining SPSD-RM, you become part of a global network of experts working together to create a more resilient and safer world. Your contribution will be crucial in shaping future approaches to disaster risk management and addressing the challenges that future generations may face. In today's world, we face many challenges, and collective action is needed to create a better future. Your support and engagement are key to achieving this goal. Without active participation and contributions from all of us, we will not be able to achieve real change. This book is not only a source of inspiration but also a resource to help you understand and address the challenges we face. Let this book be our guide and encouragement to actively engage in initiatives aimed at improving the state of disaster risk management. Your role is essential because every individual action contributes to creating a safer world for all of us. Thank you for being willing to join this important effort and contribute to creating a better future for all.Uvođenje nauke i stručnosti u sferu upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa predstavlja ključnu etapu u savremenom društvu suočenom s izazovima sve učestalijih i razornijih vanrednih situacija. Ovi izazovi, bez obzira na njihovu prirodu, postaju sveprisutni, često neizbežni, i zahtevaju ozbiljan i proaktivan pristup za osiguravanje bezbednosti i stabilnosti naših zajednica. To je naročito izraženo u kontekstu sve češćih prirodnih katastrofa, tehničko-tehnoloških incidenata i rastućih rizika i pretnji. Iz ovog razloga, osnovano je Naučno-stručno društvo za upravljanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama (NSD-URVS) u junu 2018. godine. Inicijativa za osnivanje ovog društva potekla je iz uvida u ključnu ulogu nevladinih organizacija i civilnog društva u procesima upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa. Njihov proaktivan doprinos javnoj politici, unapređenju pripremljenosti i otpornosti, kao i pružanju pomoći ugroženima, zaslužuje posebno priznanje i podršku. Prof. dr Vladimir M. Cvetković bio je vođa ove inicijative, čiji je predlog za osnivanje NSD-URVS obećavao okupljanje relevantnih stručnjaka i praktičara iz Srbije i šireg regiona. Njihov zajednički cilj bio je unapređenje teorijskog i praktičnog temelja upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa, s namerom pružanja konkretnih smernica i podrške donosiocima odluka na lokalnom nivou i rukovodiocima u procesima upravljanja vanrednim situacijama. Ova inicijativa postavlja osnovu za interdisciplinarnu saradnju i integraciju znanja u borbi protiv stalnih rizika, a istovremeno pokazuje koliko je ključna zajednička inicijativa za očuvanje sigurnosti i blagostanja naših zajednica. Upravljanje ovim rizicima zahteva holistički pristup, koji uključuje brojne sektore i aktere, kao i multidisciplinarnu saradnju između naučnika, praktičara i donosioca odluka. Kroz detaljno razmatranje osnivanja i razvoja Društva, knjiga pruža uvid u ključne korake i inicijative koje su vodile formiranju i rastu NSD-URVS. Osnivačka skupština, održana tog dana, ozvaničila je formiranje ovog društva koje je okupilo stručnjake sa različitih fakulteta, uključujući Fakultet bezbednosti, Kriminalističko-policijski univerzitet, Geografski fakultet i Šumarski fakultet. Profesori su jednoglasno doneli Statut i uspostavili Naučno-stručno društvo za upravljanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama, poznato kao Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management. Edukacija je ključna komponenta uspešnog upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa. Kroz obuke i programe edukacije, NSD-URVS radi na osnaživanju ljudi i institucija, kako bi se adekvatno pripremili za nepredviđene situacije. Istovremeno, promoviše se svest građana o neophodnosti unapređenja njihove pripremljenosti za katastrofe. Ova knjiga detaljno istražuje kako su obuke i edukacije postale sastavni deo programa Društva, doprinoseći jačanju kapaciteta i sprečavanju katastrofa. Saradnja nauke i prakse je ključna za efikasno upravljanje rizicima od katastrofa. NSD-URVS uspešno integriše teorijska istraživanja i empirijske spoznaje, čime omogućava donosiocima odluka i rukovodiocima u vanrednim situacijama da donesu informisane odluke. Kroz analizu primera sa terena, ova knjiga pokazuje kako saradnja između naučnika, praktičara i predstavnika vlasti doprinosi unapređenju upravljanja u vanrednim situacijama. Međunarodni Institut za istraživanje katastrofa, osnovan pod okriljem Društva, predstavlja ključnu tačku za promovisanje naučnih istraživanja u oblasti studija katastrofa. Ova institucija ne samo da sprovodi istraživanja, već i olakšava međunarodnu saradnju i pravni okvir u oblasti katastrofa. Kroz ovu knjigu, istražujemo kako je Institut postao središnji igrač u generisanju naučnih podataka i promociji globalne saradnje u oblasti katastrofa. Međunarodni institut za istraživanje katastrofa postavlja visoke standarde u oblasti naučnog istraživanja, fokusirajući se na fenomenologiju katastrofa i opasnosti, pripremljenost i ublažavanje rizika od katastrofa, zaštitu i spasavanje u katastrofama, oporavak od katastrofa, upravljanje rizicima od katastrofa, međunarodnu saradnju i pravni okvir u oblasti katastrofa. Njegova misija je osigurati da se najnovija saznanja primene na terenu, kako bi se ljudi i zajednice zaštitili od nepredvidivih događaja. Naučno-stručno društvo za upravlјanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama (NSD-URVS) predstavlja nevladino, neprofitno udruženje sa ciljem unapređenja teorijskih znanja u oblasti upravlјanja rizicima u vanrednim situacijama i sprovođenja istraživanja, koja će imati dubok i trajan uticaj. Ovo društvo je posvećeno organizovanju konferencija, pokretanju časopisa, pružanju obuka i proceni rizika, kako bi se stvorila bolja pripremljenost za buduće izazove. U ovoj knjizi, čitaoci će imati priliku da istraže istraživački put i dostignuća Naučno-stručnog društva za upravljanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama, a takođe i Međunarodnog instituta za istraživanje katastrofa. Ova knjiga predstavlja zbirku radova, istraživanja i saznanja, koja su nastala zahvaljujući posvećenom radu članova ove organizacije i predstavlja dragocen izvor informacija za sve one koji su posvećeni unapređenju upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa. Kroz ovu knjigu, nadamo se da će čitaoci steći dublje razumevanje i inspiraciju za dalje istraživanje i akciju u oblasti upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa. Ova knjiga je posvećena svim onima koji rade na izgradnji sigurnijeg sveta i doprinose smanjenju rizika od katastrofa. Angažovanje stručnjaka i praktičara predstavlja ključnu kariku u razvoju Naučno-stručnog društva za upravljanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama, čiji su predan rad i vizija doprineli unapređenju upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa i promovisanju bezbednosti u širem društvu. Društvo je ostvarilo značajan doprinos naučnoj zajednici i edukaciji kroz objavljivanje raznovrsnih publikacija, uključujući naučne monografije, udžbenike i zbirke, čime je unapređeno razumevanje i pristup upravljanju rizicima od katastrofa, prateći visoke standarde izdavačke delatnosti. Cilјevi NSD-URVS, kako su definisani u svom Statutu, obuhvataju širok spektar aktivnosti koje se kreću od istraživanja, obrazovanja, do promovisanja preventivnih mera i podrške zajednicama u suočavanju sa katastrofama. U srži ovih ciljeva leži duboka predanost sigurnosti i dobrobiti ljudi, kako u Srbiji, tako i širom sveta. Kroz istraživanje i analizu katastrofa, pružanje obuka, organizaciju konferencija i mnoge druge aktivnosti, NSD-URVS je postalo ključna figura u upravljanju rizicima od katastrofa i vanrednim situacijama. Jedan od važnih koraka ka postizanju ovih ciljeva bilo je osnivanje Međunarodnog časopisa - ,,International Journal of Disaster Risk Management”, koji je postao platforma za razmenu najnovijih saznanja i istraživanja u ovoj oblasti. Ovaj časopis je postao referentna tačka za stručnjake i istraživače širom sveta, čime se unapređuje globalno razumevanje i pristup upravljanju rizicima od katastrofa. NSD-URVS, takođe, aktivno radi na konkurisanju i realizaciji nacionalnih i međunarodnih projekata, istraživanjima i kampanjama usmerenih na smanjenje rizika od katastrofa. Kroz ove aktivnosti, društvo postavlja temelje za bolju pripremljenost i reagovanje na katastrofe u budućnosti. Kroz organizaciju naučnih konferencija, NSD-URVS otvara vrata za razmenu ideja, iskustava i najboljih praksi u oblasti upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa. Ove događaje često karakteriše multidisciplinarni pristup, okupljajući stručnjake iz različitih oblasti kako bi zajedno radili na rešavanju složenih problema. U duhu obaveze prema zajednici, NSD-URVS, takođe, igra ključnu ulogu u podizanju svesti građana o neophodnosti pripremljenosti za katastrofe. Kroz različite kampanje i programe, društvo nastoji osnažiti građane da prepoznaju rizike i preduzmu korake kako bi se zaštitili. Ova knjiga nam omogućava da istražimo razvoj i dostignuća ovog dragocenog društva, čiji članovi su predani zaštiti ljudskih života i imovine u vanrednim situacijama. Kroz prizmu napora i doprinosa članova ovog društva, možemo bolje razumeti kako se oblikuje savremeni pristup upravljanju rizicima od katastrofa. Istorijski razvoj Naučno-stručnog društva za upravljanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama (NSD-URVS) je priča o zajednici stručnjaka, istraživača, praktičara i studenata, koji su zajedno gradili bolju budućnost. Ova organizacija se razvijala i napredovala zahvaljujući predanosti i entuzijazmu svojih članova. Bez njihove podrške i angažovanja, ovo društvo ne bi postiglo ono što jeste danas. U svetlu otkrivanja sve češćih i ozbiljnijih izazova koje donose prirodne katastrofe i vanredne situacije, svi mi imamo ulogu u oblikovanju sigurnije budućnosti. Pozivamo sve stručnjake, istraživače, donosioce odluka, praktičare, studente i sve one koje ova oblast zanima da se pridruže NSD-URVS i doprinesu daljem razvoju organizacije. Vaš doprinos može biti raznovrstan od aktivnog učešća u istraživanjima, organizaciji obuka i konferencija, do pružanja podrške zajednicama u riziku od katastrofa. Istraživanje, obrazovanje i praksa su tri stuba na kojima počiva ova organizacija, i svaka uloga je od suštinskog značaja. Pridruživanjem NSD-URVS, postajete deo globalne mreže stručnjaka, koji zajedno rade na stvaranju otpornijeg i bezbednijeg sveta. Vaš doprinos će biti ključan u oblikovanju budućih pristupa upravljanju rizicima od katastrofa i doprineti rešavanju izazova koje buduće generacije mogu suočiti. U današnjem svetu, suočavamo se sa mnogim izazovima i potrebno je zajedničko delovanje kako bismo stvorili bolju budućnost. Vaša podrška i angažman su ključni za postizanje ovog cilja. Bez aktivnog učešća i doprinosa svih nas, nećemo moći ostvariti stvarnu promenu. Ova knjiga nije samo izvor inspiracije, već i resurs koji će vam pomoći da razumete i rešavate izazove sa kojima se suočavamo. Neka ova knjiga bude naš vodič i podstrek da se aktivno uključimo u inicijative koje se bave unapređenjem stanja u oblasti upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa. Vaša uloga je od suštinskog značaja, jer svaka pojedinačna akcija doprinosi stvaranju sigurnijeg sveta za sve nas. Hvala što ste spremni da se pridružite ovom važnom naporu i doprinesete stvaranju bolje budućnosti za sve.

UPRAVLJANJE U NUKLEARNIM KATASTROFAMA (NUCLEAR DISASTER MANAGEMENT)

Research on the risk of nuclear and radiation hazards is not new (Siegrist & Cvetkovich, 2000; Siegrist et al., 2000a; Siegrist, Sütterlin, & Keller, 2014a), with debates primarily focused on the possibility of nuclear weapons attacks, followed by nuclear waste and potential nuclear power plant accidents (Mulder, 2012). Previous research (Sjöberg & Drottz‐Sjöberg, 1991; Takebayashi et al., 2017; Whitfield et al., 2009) has examined public risk regarding potential unintentional radiation releases from nuclear facilities (e.g., nuclear waste disposal, etc.). Other efforts have focused on developing standard terminology for radiological protection under the auspices of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) (Berube, Cummings, Frith, Binder, & Oldendick, 2011; Drottz‐Sjöberg, 2010; Flynn, Slovic, & Mertz, 1993; Jacobs & Worthley, 1999; Mah, Hills, & Tao, 2014). Since the 1950s, some have regarded nuclear energy as a dangerous technology due to its unknown and invisible nature, thus posing a catastrophic threat to society and national survival (Slovic, 1987). Other research has shown that public opinion plays an important role in establishing local, regional, and federal nuclear energy policy (Ansolabehere & Konisky, 2009; Visschers & Siegrist, 2008). As a result, policymakers and scientists have influenced public perceptions of nuclear energy safety and the real threats it poses (Frantál, Malý, Ouředníček, & Nemeškal, 2016). People generally hold both positive and negative views of nuclear energy (Peters & Slovic, 1996). This study revealed that the majority of respondents do not support the implementation of nuclear energy in the Republic of Serbia, echoing sentiments in 90 percent of the world's countries. This finding was likely influenced by participants' awareness of three major globally impactful disasters: Three Mile Island in 1979, Chernobyl in 1986, and Japan's Fukushima in 2011. However, the findings indicated mixed results. Past research on public acceptance of nuclear power plants has mainly focused on overall awareness and approval within local communities, based on existing beliefs and attitudes regarding the nature of nuclear energy and radiological hazards (Greenberg, 2009; He, Mol, Zhang, & Lu, 2014; S. Kim, Lee, & Kim, 2019; Midden & Verplanken, 1990; Siegrist et al., 2014a; Tsujikawa, Tsuchida, & Shiotani, 2016). Other studies, however, have examined acceptance of nuclear power only at specific locations (Greenberg, 2009). Additionally, previous research has shown that public attitudes toward nuclear energy vary: some are positive (Kim et al., 2013) while others are negative (Costa‐Font et al., 2008; Visschers & Siegrist, 2008). Acceptance of nuclear power also affects people's trust in official nuclear organizations and government agencies responsible for public safety (Ansolabehere & Konisky, 2009; Visschers & Siegrist, 2008). Our study found that the majority of respondents in Serbia are concerned about potential nuclear accidents. It can be assumed that Serbian citizens do not have enough trust in other institutions and organizations (e.g., companies) regulating or producing some form of technology (Siegrist & Cvetkovich, 2000). Such findings align with results from previous studies in Germany, Italy, and Switzerland, which showed that some nuclear reactors were closed due to safety concerns and the abandonment of new nuclear power plant construction following the Fukushima nuclear disaster in northern Japan resulting from the March 2011 earthquake. Therefore, it is necessary to improve risk-related information, bearing in mind that it contributes to our knowledge and influences how we perceive risks and ultimately make risk-related decisions (Kristiansen, 2017). Public acceptance of nuclear energy is positively associated with strong community awareness of the benefits of nuclear energy sources (Kim et al., 2019) and trusting government security agencies, but negatively associated with strong community perceptions of prevailing risks outweighing any benefits of nuclear energy sources. When people perceive lower risks, they feel they gain more from nuclear power plants, with increased trust in and reliance on information about nuclear energy provided by government energy agencies and private-sector nuclear energy companies (Groot, Schweiger, & Schubert, 2020; Huang et al., 2018). Grot and colleagues (De Groot et al., 2020) concluded that the perception of benefits is a key factor in explaining high public acceptability of nuclear energy, while the perception of the public risk of the significant danger posed by nuclear hazard resulted in reduced community acceptability of nuclear energy. Our results showed that the educational level of respondents is the strongest regression coefficient for accepting nuclear energy. This result is consistent with findings (Huang et al., 2013) that knowledge and education regarding the benefits of nuclear energy access, despite recognized risks posed by nuclear energy. On the other hand, other studies have concluded that public acceptance of technological disaster risks caused by nuclear energy was unaffected by educational level or general knowledge of the nuclear energy industry (Kim et al., 2019). In Serbia, due to traditional factors, women were found in the results of our study to be less likely than men to support nuclear energy (Solomon, Tomaskovic-Devey, & Risman, 1989). Our study showed that women generally tend to believe that nuclear energy and radioactive waste are less safe and pose a greater danger to the community than men and also believe that the global threat of nuclear weapons is greater for men (Cvetković et al., 2020; Cvetković, Öcal, & Ivanov, 2019; Flynn, Slovic, & Mertz, 1994). Interestingly, our research found that men statistically have a greater fear of nuclear power plant accidents than women. Methodological limitations of our study include: (1) potential selection bias in subject study selection regarding questionnaire completion, (2) lack of knowledge or experience of study participants with nuclear energy sources in their communities; (3) insufficient representativeness of our sample of respondents for the general population of Serbia, and (4) intimidating mental state of respondents caused by the nature of this study related to nuclear power plant disasters. Conclusion: The main focus of the scientific monograph was on the opinions of citizens of the Republic of Serbia regarding the potential risks of introducing nuclear energy. Starting from the moratorium on nuclear power plant construction, attitudes and the adequacy of such legal regulation were examined to alert decision-makers in Serbia to necessary reforms in this regard. Since many European countries depend on nuclear energy, the results of our study will prove valuable to policymakers in other Balkan countries and in Serbia itself, considering the potential construction of nuclear reactors in the future. Furthermore, these findings will play a significant role in educating scientists and the public about the risks and benefits of nuclear energy. Given that some variables, such as gender, employment status, educational level, and marital status, are important for predicting acceptance of nuclear energy, future studies should focus on these variables, as they are useful for all emergency managers and government decision-makers grappling with the need for more energy sources in their countries. Since nuclear energy represents both an energy source and a potential threat to the environment and human safety and security, further scientific research exploring economic and geopolitical factors, such as unregulated and uncontrolled nuclear energy development, which can lead to irreversible harm to communities in Serbia, other Balkan countries, and Europe as a whole. In order to maximize the consequences of carried out terrorist attacks, terrorist groups continue to seek means of execution that will contribute precisely to that. Therefore, the possibility of nuclear terrorism is the most worrying fact. Nuclear terrorism is essentially a concept that encompasses multiple possibilities that do not necessarily include nuclear weapons. It can also involve the use of nuclear materials for terrorist purposes. In this sense, three main principles of potential terrorist action can be defined: the use of a nuclear explosive device (nuclear explosion); attack or sabotage on existing nuclear facilities; use of a so-called "dirty" bomb (conventional explosion dispersing radioactive material into the environment). To reduce the possibilities of abuse of radiological materials, a whole range of preventive measures needs to be taken both in their production process and during transportation and use. Certainly, sometimes preventive measures alone cannot prevent highly motivated individuals from obtaining them. This is why it is very important for members of emergency rescue services to be well prepared to respond in such situations in order to mitigate the consequences as quickly as possible. To raise the level of preparedness of these services, appropriate action plans need to be adopted, the training of responders needs to be improved, and appropriate equipment needs to be procured. In addition to a nationally developed general plan for the action of emergency rescue services, each individual service needs to have its own action plans and procedures to be applied in the event of such emergencies. Certainly, such plans and procedures must be coordinated to avoid overlap or conflicts of jurisdiction on-site during emergencies. Furthermore, it is necessary to raise public awareness of the possibilities of such events and to educate them at a certain informative level on how to react in such situations. The nuclear threat to humanity from the so-called Cold War period is now undoubtedly largely replaced by the threats of terrorists to use weapons of mass destruction. A possible nuclear terrorist attack would have dramatic consequences, both in terms of human casualties and material damage, and psychologically, such terrorism would have a much greater effect than any other form of terrorism because there is widespread fear of nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons are made on the principle of using an uncontrolled nuclear reaction, in which large amounts of energy and radioactive products are released in a short period of time, causing a nuclear explosion, which differs from a conventional explosion by the larger amount of released energy and the changes that occur in the explosive. Considering possible forms of terrorism, it involves the possibility of using nuclear weapons or radioactive material for terrorist purposes. In conclusion, it is necessary to legally regulate the production, use, storage, import-export, and transport of nuclear material at all levels from international to national, aimed at non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, nuclear disarmament, and the use of atomic energy for peaceful purposes. This would greatly reduce the risk of misuse of nuclear material for terrorist purposes.Knjiga ,,Upravljanje u nuklearnim katastrofama“ predstavlja originalno, sveobuhvatno i prvo delo na našim prostorima u kojem se prikazuju rezultati teorijskog i empirijskog istraživanja karakteristika različitih faza integrisanog upravljanja u nuklearnim katastrofama, kao što su: prevencija i ublažavanje rizika od nuklearnih katastrofa; pripremljenost građana, lokalnih zajednica i države za nuklearne katastrofe; odgovor (mere zaštite i spasavanja sa taktikom njihove primene) i oporavak od posledica nuklearnih katastrofa. Pored toga, autori na vrlo intuitivan, pristupačan i razumljiv način opisuju složenu fenomenologiju nuklearnih katastrofa sa posebnim osvrtom na korišćenje nuklearne energije u mirnodopske svrhe i nuklearni terorizam kao jednu od najozbiljnijih pretnji bezbednosti u XXI veku. Pored sveobuhvatnih teorijskih elaboracija, u naučnoj monografiji autori predstavljaju rezultate kvantitativnog istraživanja uticaja demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških karakteristika ispitanika na njihove stavove o brojnim relevantim pitanjima iz oblasti upravljanja u nuklearnim katastrofama (percepcija rizika i strahovi o nuklearnim katastrofama, percepcija o prihvatanju i odbijanju korišćenja nuklearne energije u mirnodopske svrhe, multidimenzionalna pripremljenost građana, lokalnih zajednica, države i interventno-spasilačkih službi (policije, vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica i službe hitne medicinske pomoći) za reagovanje u nuklearnim katastrofama, percepcija pozitivnih i negativnih perspektiva izmene zakonske regulative o izgradnji nuklearnih elektrana u Srbiji). Višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem, anketirano je nekoliko stotina građana, na području grada Beograda, korišćenjem metode snežne grudve. Dobijeni podaci su analizirani i interpretirani korišćenjem statističkih tehnika, kao što su: višestruka regresija, Hi-kvadrat test, Jednofaktorska analiza varijanse (ANOVA), T-test i Pirsonova linearna korelacija. Rezultati naučnog istraživanja umnogome doprinose unapređenju teorijskog i empirijskog fonda naučnih saznanja koja se mogu iskoristiti za kreiranje strategija i programa unapređenja pripremljenosti stanovništva za reagovanje u različitim nuklearnim i radiološkim katastrofama. Istraživanje rizika o opasnosti od nuklearne i radijacije nije novo (Siegrist & Cvetkovich, 2000; Siegrist et al., 2000a; Siegrist, Sütterlin, & Keller, 2014a) sa debatama usredsređenim uglavnom na mogućnost napada nuklearnim oružjem, a slede ih nuklearni otpad i potencijalne nesreće nuklearne elektrane (Mulder, 2012). Prethodno istraživanje (Sjöberg & Drottz‐Sjöberg, 1991; Takebayashi et al., 2017; Whitfield et al., 2009) ispitan je javni rizik u pogledu potencijalnog nenamernog oslobđanja radijacije iz nuklearnih objekata (na prim. odlaganje nuklearnog otpada, itd. Drugi napori bili su fokusirani na razvoj standardne terminologije za radiološku zaštitu pod potiskivanjem Međunarodne komisije za radiološku Protection (ICRP) (Berube, Cummings, Frith, Binder, & Oldendick, 2011; Drottz‐Sjöberg, 2010; Flynn, Slovic, & Mertz, 1993; Jacobs & Worthley, 1999; Mah, Hills, & Tao, 2014). Od 50-ih godina, nuklearnu energiju su neki smatrali opasnom tehnologijom zbog njene nepoznate i nevidlјive prirode i stoga predstavlјajući katastrofalnu pretnju društvu i nacionalnom opstanku (Slovic, 1987). Druge studije istraživanja pokazale su da javno mnjenje igra važnu ulogu u tome da se ustanovi lokalna, regionalna i federalna nuklearna energetska politika (Ansolabehere & Konisky, 2009; Visschers & Siegrist, 2008). Kao rezultat toga, akcionari politike i naučnici uticali su na javnu percepciju bezbednosti i istinske pretnje koju predstavlјa nuklearna energija (Frantál, Malý, Ouředníček, & Nemeškal, 2016). Ljudi generalno imaju i pozitivne i negativne poglede na nuklearnu energiju (Peters & Slovic, 1996). Ova studija je pokazala da većina ispitanika ne podržava implementaciju nuklearne energije u Republici Srbiji, kao i slučaj sa lјudima u 90 odsto zemalјa sveta. Ovo otkriće nije bilo zabeleženo zbog znanja učesnika istraživanja tri velike nesreće sa globalnim uticajem, ostrvo Tri milјe 1979, Černobilј 1986 i Japan Fukušima 2011. Merutim, nalјi nalazi su pokazali da su rezultati veži. Prošlo istraživanje javnog prihvatanja nuklearnih elektrana uglavnom se fokusiralo na sveukupnu svest i odobrenje lokalne zajednice, zasnovano na postojećim verovanjima i stavovima u pogledu prirode nuklearne energije i radioloških opasnosti (Greenberg, 2009; He, Mol, Zhang, & Lu, 2014; S. Kim, Lee, & Kim, 2019; Midden & Verplanken, 1990; Siegrist et al., 2014a; Tsujikawa, Tsuchida, & Shiotani, 2016). Druge studije su, međutim, ispitale prihvatanje nuklearnih sila samo na određenim lokacijama (Greenberg, 2009). Pored toga, prethodno istraživanje pokazalo je da javni stavovi prema nuklearnoj energiji variraju: neka su pozitivna (Kim et al., 2013) dok su drugi negativni (Costa‐Font et al., 2008; Visschers & Siegrist, 2008). Prihvatanje nuklearnih elektrana takođe utiče na poverenje lјudi u zvanične nuklearne organizacije i vladine agencije odgovorne za javnu bezbednost (Ansolabehere & Konisky, 2009; Visschers & Siegrist, 2008). Naša studija pokazala je da je većina ispitanika u Srbiji zabrinuta zbog mogućih nuklearnih nesreća. Može se pretpostaviti da građani Srbije ne imaju dovolјno poverenja u druge institucije i organizacije (na primjer, kompanije) koje regulišu ili proizvode neku vrstu tehnologije (Siegrist & Cvetkovich, 2000). Takvi nalazi su u skladu sa rezultatima prošlih studija u Nemačkoj, Italiji i Švajcarskoj, koji su pokazali da su neki nuklearni reaktori zatvoreni zbog bezbednosnih zabrinutosti i napuštanja izgradnje nove nuklearne elektrane zbog nuklearne katastrofe Fukušima u severnom Japanu, kao rezultat zemlјotresa u martu 2011. Iz tih razloga, neophodno je pobolјšati informacije vezane za rizik, imajući u umu da oni doprinose našem znanju i utiču na to kako opažamo rizike i koje odluke o riziku na kraju donosimo (Kristiansen, 2017). Javno prihvatanje nuklearne energije pozitivno je povezano sa snažnom svesnoću zajednice o prednostima izvora nuklearne energije (Kim et al., 2019), i da veruje vladinim bezbednosnim agencijama, ali je negativno povezana sa snažnom percepcijom zajednice o rizicima koji prevladaju bilo kakve prednosti izvora nuklearne energije. Kada su lјudi zapazili manji rizik, osećali su da dobijaju više od nuklearne elektrane, uz više poverenja i poverenja u informacije o nuklearnoj energiji koju obezbeđuju vladine energetske agencije i kompanije za nuklearnu energiju u privatnom sektoru (Groot, Schweiger, & Schubert, 2020; Huang et al., 2018). Grot i saradnici (De Groot et al., 2020) zaklјučili su da je percepcija prednosti klјučni faktori u objašnjenju visoke javne prihvatlјivosti nuklearne energije, dok je percepcija javnog rizika velike opasnosti koju predstavlјa nuklearna opasnost rezultirala smanjenjem prihvatlјivosti zajednice za nuklearnu energiju. Naši rezultati su pokazali da je obrazovni nivo ispitanika najjači koeficijent regresije prihvatanja nuklearne energije. Ovaj rezultat je u skladu sa rezultatima (Huang et al., 2013) znanje i obrazovanje u pogledu prihvatanja prednosti pristupa nuklearnoj energiji, uprkos priznatim opasnostima koje predstavlјa nuklearna energija. Sa druge strane, druge studije su zaklјučile da je javno prihvatanje rizika od tehnoloških katastrofa uzrokovano nuklearnom energijom bilo neolјtećeno obrazovnim nivoom ili opštim znanjem o industriji nuklearne energije (Kim et al., 2019). U Srbiji, zbog tradicionalnih faktora, žene su pronađene rezultatima naše studije manje verovatno nego muškarci koji podržavaju nuklearnu energiju (Solomon, Tomaskovic-Devey, & Risman, 1989). Naša studija je pokazala da su žene generalno sklone da veruju da su nuklearna energija i radioaktivni otpad manje bezbedni i da su veća opasnost za zajednicu od muškaraca i takođe veruju da je globalna pretnja od nuklearnog oružja veća za muškarce (Cvetković et al., 2020; Cvetković, Öcal, & Ivanov, 2019; Flynn, Slovic, & Mertz, 1994). Zanimlјivo, naše istraživanje je pokazalo da muškarci imaju statistički veći strah od nesreća u nuklearnoj elektrani od žena. Metodološka ograničenja naše studije uklјučuju: (1) potencijalnu pristrasnost u odabiru subjekta studije u odnosu na upitnik; dopunjavanje, (2) nedostatak znanja ili iskustva učesnika studije sa izvorima nuklearne energije u njihovim zajednicama; (3) nedovolјna reprezentativnost našeg uzorka ispitanika za opštu populaciju Srbije i (4) zastrašujuće mentalno stanje ispitanika uzrokovano prirodom ove studije koja se odnosi na katastrofe nuklearnih elektrana. Zaključak: Glavni fokus naučne monografije odnosio se na mišlјenja građana Republike Srbije o potencijalnim rizicima uvođenja nuklearne energije. Polazeći od moratorijuma o izgradnji nulearnih elektrana, ispitani su stavovi i o adekvatnosti takvog pravnog regulisanja kako bi se donosiocima odluka u Srbiji ukazalo na neophodne reforme u tom pogledu. Budući da mnoge zemlјe u Evropi zavise od nuklearne energije, rezultati naše studije pokazaće se vrednim za kreatore vladinih politika u drugim balkanskim zemlјama i u samoj Srbiji, s obzirom na potencijalnu izgradnju nuklearnih reaktora u budućnosti. Pored toga, ovi nalazi će igrati značajnu ulogu u obrazovanju naučnika i javnosti o rizicima i koristima nuklearne energije. Uzimajući u obzir da su neke promenlјive, poput pola, radnog statusa, obrazovnog nivoa i bračnog statusa, važne za predviđanje prihvatanja nuklearne energije, buduće studije bi se trebale usredsrediti na ove promenlјive, jer su korisne za sve upravnike u vanrednim situacijama i vladine donosioce odluka koji se bore sa potreba za više izvora energije u njihovim zemlјama. Budući da nuklearna energija predstavlјa i izvor energije i potencijalnu pretnju za životnu sredinu i za lјudsku sigurnost i bezbednost, dalјa naučna istraživanja koja istražuju ekonomske i geopolitičke faktore, poput neregulisanog i nekontrolisanog razvoja nuklearne energije, koja mogu dovesti do neopozive štete zajednicama u Srbiji, ostalim balkanskim zemlјama i Evropi uopšte. U cilјu maksimizacije posledica izvedenih napada terorističke grupe ne prestaju da tragaju za sredstvima izvršenja koja će upravo tome i doprineti. Dakle, mogućnost nuklearnog terorizma je činjenica koja najviše zabrinjava. Nuklearni terorizam je u osnovi pojam koji obuhvata više mogućnosti koje ne moraju nužno uklјučivati i nuklearno oružje. Može se govoriti i o upotrebi nuklearnih materijala u terorističke svrhe. U tom smislu se mogu definisati tri glavna principa eventualnog terorističkog delovanja: upotreba nuklearne eksplozivne naprave (nuklearna eksplozija); napad ili sabotaža na postojećim nuklearnim postrojenjima; upotreba tzv. ,,prlјave“ bombe (klasična eksplozija pomoću koje se radioaktivni materijal raspršuje u okolinu).Da bi se smanjile mogućnosti zloupotrebe radioloških materijala neophodno je preduzeti čitav niz preventivnih mera kako u procesu njihove proizvodnje, tako i prilikom transporta i samog korišćenja. Svakako, ponekad i preventivne mere ne mogu sprečiti veoma motivisane osobe da dođu do njih. Upravo zato, veoma je važno da se pripadnici interventno-spasilačkih službi dobro pripreme za reagovanje u takvim situacijama kako bi se u što kraćem vremenskom periodu ublažile nastale posledice. Da bi se podigao nivo pripremlјenosti spomenutih službi potrebno je doneti odgovarajuće planove za postupanje, unaprediti obučenosti pripadnika za reagovanje i pribaviti odgovarajuću opremu. Osim generalnog na nacionalnom nivou razvijenog plana postupanja interventno-spasilačkih službi, neophodno je da svaka pojedinačna služba poseduje sopstvene planove i procedure postupanja koje će primeniti u slučaju ovakvih događaja. Svakako, takvi planovi i procedure moraju biti međusobno usklađeni, kako ne bi došlo do preplitanja odnosno sukoba nadležnosti na licu mesta vanrednih situacija. Pored toga, potrebno je podići svest građana o mogućnostima nastanka takvih događaja i na određenom informativnom nivou edukovati ih kako da reaguju u takvim situacijama. Nuklearna pretnja čovečanstvu iz perioda tzv. hladnog rata, danas je, nesumnjivo, u velikoj meri zamenjena pretnjama terorista da će upotrebiti oružje za masovno uništavanje. Mogući nuklearni teroristički napad izazvao bi dramatične posledice, kako u pogledu lјudskih žrtava, tako i u pogledu materijalne štete, a psihološki, takav oblik terorizma bi izazvao mnogo veći efekat nego bilo koji drugi oblik terorizma, zato što postoji veoma rasprostranjen strah od nuklearnog oružja. Nuklearno oružje je izrađeno na principu korišćenja nekontrolisane nuklearne reakcije, pri kojoj se u malom vremenskom periodu oslobađaju velike količine energije i radioaktivnog produkta, čime se izaziva nuklearna eksplozija, koja se od klasične eksplozije razlikuje po većoj količini oslobođene energije i promenama do kojih dolazi u eksplozivu. Sagledavanje mogućih oblika terorizma, podrazumeva mogućnost upotrebe nuklearnog oružja ili radioaktivnog materijala u terorističke svrhe. Na kraju, zaklјučujemo da je potrebno pravno regulisanje proizvodnje, upotrebe, čuvanja, uvoza-izvoza i transporta nuklearnog materijala, na svim nivoima od međunarodnog do nacionalnog čiji bi cilј bio neširenje nuklearnog oružja, nuklearno razoružavanje i korišćenja atomske energije u mirolјubive svrhe. Time bi se u velikoj meri smanjio rizik od zloupotrebe nuklearnog materijala u terorističke svrhe. Referenca - Cvetković, V., & Martinović, J. (2021). Upravljanje u nuklearnim katastrofama. Beograd: Naučno-stručno društvo za upravljanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama.

MITOVI O KATASTROFAMA: ISTINE I ZABLUDE (Myths About Disasters: Truths and Misconceptions)

Knjiga ,,Mitovi o katastrofama: istine i zablude“ predstavlja bogatu riznicu podataka o najaktuelnijim i praktikovanim mitovima iz oblasti studija katastrofa, koji se razlikuju po svojoj morfologiji i društvenoj funkcionalnosti. Vešto i pronicljivo objašnjavajući suprotstavljene načine interpretacije ponašanja ljudi u uslovima katastrofa, autori na interesantan, znalački i dovitljiv način elaboriraju opšte mitove o katastrofama, mitove iz domena zdravstva, kao i iz domena pružanja humanitarne pomoći. Neprekidno tragajući za otkrivanjem istine i zablude, autori na virtuozan i naučno prihvatljiv stil preispituju mnogobrojne mitove: prirodne katastrofe su izuzetni i retki događaji; katastrofe ubijaju nasumično bez poštovanja ekonomskog ili socijalnog statusa; tehnologije će spasiti svet od prirodnih katastrofa; zemljotresi su prirodne opasnosti koje prouzrokuju velike ljudske žrtve; prirodne katastrofe slabe moral pogođene zajednice; neodlučnost ljudi za evakuaciju u uslovima katastrofa; nakon katastrofe, stvari se vraćaju u normalu kroz nekoliko nedelja; privremena naselja su idealna stambena rešenja za žrtve katastrofe; preopterećenost najbliže bolnice pacijentima nedaleko od mesta katastrofe; donacije krvi su u uslovima katastrofa neophodne; žrtve katastrofa razvijaju „Sindrom katastrofe“; prirodne katastrofe stvaraju epidemije zaraznih bolesti; mit o paničnom ponašanju ljudi u uslovima katastrofa; katastrofe prouzrokuju antisocijalno ponašanje itd. Uvreženost i opšteprihvaćenost spomenutih mitova o katastrofama, naprosto nameću potrebu sprovođenja multimetodskih istraživanja, imajući u vidu da njihovo praktikovanje unapređuje ili unazađuje organizovanje integrisane i efikasne zaštite ljudi i materijalnih dobara od prirodnih i antropogenih katastrofa. Osim neprocenjivih teorijskih elaboracija, autori u naučnoj monografiji predstavljaju impresivne i obilne rezultate kvantitativnog istraživanja u kojem se ispituje nivo praktikovanja mitova o katastrofama. Polazeći od činjenice da je svako ponašanje koje nije zasnovano na naučnim činjenicama domen mitskog tumačenja stvarnosti, višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem, sprovedeno je sveobuhvatno istraživanje na području Beograda, na uzorku od preko 250 ispitanika. Dobijeni podaci su analizirani i interpretirani korišćenjem statističkih tehnika, kao što su: Standardna višestruka regresija, Hi-kvadrat test, Jednofaktorska analiza varijanse, T-test i Pirsonova linearna korelacija. Rezultati istraživanja prikazanog u monografiji mogu biti iskorišćeni od strane donosioca odluka u Srbiji za potrebe unapređenja sveobuhvatne pripremljenosti za reagovanje u prirodnim i antropogenim katastrofama. U skladu sa cilјevima istraživanja koji su odnosili se na utvrđivanje najaktuelnijih mitova o ponašanju lјudi u uslovima katastrofa, te da li ih ispitanici i sami praktikuju, da li znaju da ih praktikuju građani, nadležni organi, mediji i međunarodni organikao, kao i da li su upoznati sa posledicama mitski zasnovanog ponašanja lјudi u uslovima katastrofa. U skladu sa prvim cilјem istraživanja koji se odnosio na utvrđivanje najaktuelnijih mitova rezultati utvrđeno je da su ispitanici upoznati sa mitovima iz sve tri pomenute grupe tj. sa opštim mitovima, mitovima iz domena zdravstva, kao i mitovima iz domena pružanja humanitarne pomoći. Kao najviše praktikovani mitovi u samom vrhu našli su se mitovi iz domena pružanja humanitarne pomoći. Prema mišlјenju ispitanika najviše praktikovan mit je mit o neophodnosti donacija hrane u uslovima katastrofa. U ovaj mit veruje 89,6% anketiranih. Sledeći mit je mit o neophodnosti donacija novčanih sredstava, te je 87,6% anketiranih spremno da donira novac, a među ispitanicima je najveći broj onih koji bi donirali preko 2.000 dinara, čak njih 26%. Mit koji bi jednako kao i prethodni ispitanici praktikovali odnosi se na donacije garderobe, te u njegovu potrebnost veruje 84,4% ispitanika. Sledeći mit je iz grupe opštih mitova o katastrofama u čiju istinitost veruje 81,6% anetiranih odnosi se na mogućnost zloupotrebe ekonomskog položaja zarad dobijanja državne pomoći za sanaciju nastale štete od posledica katastrofa. Aktuelan mit iz grupe zdravstvenih mitova je i mit o preopterećenosti najbliže bolnice povređenima od mesta katastrofe. U ovaj mit veruje 84,4% ispitanika. U skladu sa drugim cilјem istraživanja koji se odnosio na posedovanje znanja o praktikovanju pojedinih mitova od strane nadležnih službi i organa koje bi prevashodno trebalo da pomažu u akcijama zaštite i spasavanja u uslovima katastrofa. Ispostavilo se da ispitanici ne znaju kojim aktuelnim mitovima robuju nadležne službe i organi, ali da su se uverili tokom majskih polava 2014. godine u neefikasnost rada policije kao efikasnom mehanizmu zaštite u uslovima katastrofa, čak njih 64,4%, te se kod 72,4 % ispitanika javlјa opravdana sumnja da bi njihovi domovi mogli biti meta napada. Nepoverenje je vidlјivo i prema radu zdravstvenih službi, naime veliki broj ispitanika veruje da zdravstveni radnici nisu edukovani u vezi rukovanja sa leševima nakon katastrofa, te da bi mogli prouzrokovati epidemiju nestručnim radom. U ovu tvrdnju veruje 77,6% isitanika, te da bi strategija upravlјanja mrtvim telima kao efikasna borba protiv epidemija tek kod 26% anketiranih dala rezultate. Jedan od cilјeva istraživanja odnosio se na utvrđivanje informisanosti ispitanika o medijskom praktikovanju pojedinih mitova zarad maksimizacije profita prodajom vesti o lјudskoj patnji i nesreći. U istinitost navedene tvrdnje veruje 55% anketiranih, te da su tabloidni mediji skloniji iznositi neistinite informacije i da je takvo ponašanje bilo prisutno tokom majskih poplava u Republici Srbiji (RS) 2014. godine. Zatim, naredni cilј istraživanja odnosio se na poznavanje posledica mitski zasnovanog ponašanja, mali broj ispitanika je upoznat i sa pozitivnim i sa negativnim posledicama. I dok su pozitivne posledice mitskog ponašanja samo u nekim posebnim uslovima prisutne kod pojedinih mitova, poput donacija krvi, hrane ili garderobe jer pretpostavlјaju da se njihovim praktikovanjem za žrtve katastrofa može ostvariti i nešto dobro. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju visok stepen neposedovanja osnovnog znanja u oblasti katastrofa, te se ne može ni očekivati da će organizovati efikasnu zaštitu od posledica katastrofa. U odnosu na upoznatost ispitanika sa istorijom svetskih i nacionalnih katastrofa, kao i najčešćim načinima reagovanja i ispolјavanja emocionalnih reakcija žrtava katastrofa i koji su to odlučujući faktori koji opredelјuju dobrovolјno angažovanje lјudi u katastrofama, jer najčešći mitovi sugerišu da se lјudi u uslovima katastrofa ponašaju kriminalno, apatično i depresivno, te da su egoistični individualci koji nisu spremni volonterski se angažovati? Takođe, utvrđeno je i da u uslovima katastrofa najveći broj ispitanika smatra da bi se ponašao racionalno, moralno, svesno želeći da pomogne žrtvama katastrofe i volonterski i putem različitih donacija. Iako u našoj zemlјi nije u skorijoj istoriji, izuzev velikih poplava 2014. godine, bilo velikih katastrofa ispitanici su potvrdili da su upoznati sa istorijom velikim katastrofa u svetu. Pored toga, utvrđeno je da u velikom procentu ispitanici jesu spremni da putem različitih donacija pomognu žrtvama katastrofa, ali da ne postoji veza koja bi sugerisala da su ispitanici višeg ekonomskog, obrazovnog ili društvenog statusa spremniji u odnosu na ispitanike nižeg ekonomskog, obrazovnog, odnosno društvenog statusa. Dosta ispitanika imaju bojazan da bi njihovi domovi mogli biti meta napada provalnika. Iz tog razloga, veliki broj anketiranih je izjavio da se sopstveni domovi od napada potencijalnih provalnika mogu sačuvati jedino sopstvenim rukama. Uvidom u postojeću naučnu literaturu uočena su određena ograničenja tokom istraživanja na koja bi trebalo ukazati: mitovi o ponašanju lјudi u uslovima katastrofa je tema koja nije obrađivana u našim naučnim krugovima, te je u naučnoj literaturi prisutno nekoliko naučnih radova koji daju prikaz najaktuelnijih mitova o ponašanja lјudi i pojedinih službi tokom katastrofa. Iz razloga, što su posledice mitski zasnovanog ponašanja lјudi nepovolјne za celokupni sistem zaštite i spasavanja lјudi Republike Srbije (RS) potrebno je više pažnje posvetiti ovoj temi, te podići svest lјudi o neophodnosti organizovanja efikasne zaštite od katastrofa, jer činjenica je da se mnoge katastrofe ne mogu izbeći, ali da se njihove posledice mogu značajno umanjiti. Informisanost lјudi u oblasti katastrofa je na niskom nivou u ispitanika u gradu Beogradu, te je potrebno vršiti kontinuirane edukacije. Ljudi bi trebalo u budućnosti da steknu osnovna znanja u oblasti katastrofa, jer bi značajno pomogla i u svakodnevnom funkcionisanju. Ukoliko bi se priručnici i podsetnici za postupanje u katastrofama nalazili na vidlјivim mestima u preduzećima, te ukoliko bi se vršile stalne edukacije i valorizacija znanja zaposlenih, pretpostavlјa se da bi nivo informisanosti o katastrofa bio na zadovolјavajućem nivou, te bi i ponašanje lјudi u uslovima katastrofa bilo potkreplјeno naučnim činjenicama. Mitovi o katastrofama i dalјe će egzistirati među stanovništvom i pripadnicima interventno-spasilačkih službi, imajući u vidu nesavršenosti sistema unapređenja znanja iz oblasti katastrofa. U cilјu ublažavanja ili onemogućavanja njihove egzistencije i praktikovanja, potrebno je kontinuirano sprovoditi istraživanja i edukacije kako bi se sveobuhvatno podigao nivo svesti građana o svim činjenicima iz oblasti studija katastrofa. The book "Myths About Disasters: Truths and Misconceptions" represents a rich resource of data on the most current and practiced myths in the field of disaster studies, which vary in morphology and social functionality. Skillfully and insightfully explaining the opposing interpretations of human behavior in disaster conditions, the authors elaborately dissect general myths about disasters, myths in the healthcare domain, as well as those related to humanitarian aid provision. Continuously seeking to uncover truth and misconception, the authors, in an interesting, knowledgeable, and clever manner, scrutinize numerous myths: natural disasters are rare and exceptional events; disasters kill indiscriminately regardless of economic or social status; technologies will save the world from natural disasters; earthquakes are natural hazards that cause significant human casualties; natural disasters weaken the moral fabric of affected communities; people are hesitant to evacuate in disaster conditions; things return to normalcy within a few weeks after a disaster; temporary settlements are ideal housing solutions for disaster victims; the nearest hospital is overwhelmed with patients close to the disaster site; blood donations are essential in disaster conditions; disaster victims develop "Disaster Syndrome"; natural disasters lead to outbreaks of infectious diseases; the myth of panic behavior in disaster conditions; disasters cause antisocial behavior, and so forth. The prevalence and general acceptance of these disaster myths simply necessitate the implementation of multimethod research, considering that their practice either enhances or undermines the organization of integrated and efficient protection of people and material goods from natural and anthropogenic disasters. In addition to invaluable theoretical elaborations, the authors present impressive and extensive results of quantitative research in which the level of practice of disaster myths is examined. Starting from the fact that any behavior not based on scientific facts belongs to the realm of mythical interpretation of reality, comprehensive research was conducted in the area of Belgrade, with a sample of over 250 respondents, using multi-stage random sampling. The collected data were analyzed and interpreted using statistical techniques such as Standard Multiple Regression, Chi-square test, One-way Analysis of Variance, T-test, and Pearson's linear correlation. The research results presented in the monograph can be utilized by decision-makers in Serbia to improve comprehensive preparedness for response to natural and anthropogenic disasters. In line with the research objectives relating to identifying the most current myths about human behavior in disaster conditions, as well as whether respondents themselves practice them, whether citizens, authorities, media, and international organizations are aware of them, and whether they are familiar with the consequences of myth-based behavior in disaster conditions. In accordance with the first research objective, which aimed to identify the most current myths, it was found that respondents are familiar with myths from all three mentioned groups: general myths, myths in the healthcare domain, and myths in the domain of humanitarian aid provision. The most practiced myths found at the top are myths in the domain of humanitarian aid provision. According to respondents, the most practiced myth is the myth about the necessity of food donations in disaster conditions. 89.6% of respondents believe in this myth. The next myth is about the necessity of cash donations, with 87.6% of respondents willing to donate money, and among respondents, the largest number would donate over 2,000 dinars, even 26% of them. The myth that respondents would practice equally as the previous one relates to clothing donations, with 84.4% of respondents believing in its necessity. The next myth from the group of general disaster myths, believed to be true by 81.6% of respondents, relates to the possibility of abusing economic status to obtain state aid for disaster damage repair. An active myth from the group of healthcare myths is the myth about the overload of the nearest hospital with patients injured near the disaster site. 84.4% of respondents believe in this myth. In accordance with the second research objective, which focused on the knowledge of certain myths being practiced by relevant services and authorities primarily tasked with assisting in disaster protection and rescue operations, it turned out that respondents do not know which current myths authorities and services are enslaved to, but they witnessed during the May 2014 floods the inefficiency of the police as an effective mechanism for protection in disaster conditions, as even 64.4% of them, and 72.4% of respondents have a justified suspicion that their homes could be targeted by attacks. Distrust is also evident towards the work of health services; a large number of respondents believe that healthcare workers are not trained in handling bodies after disasters, and that they could cause an epidemic due to unprofessional work. 77.6% of respondents believe in this claim, and only 26% of those surveyed believe that a strategy for managing dead bodies as an effective way to fight epidemics would yield results. One of the research goals was to determine the respondents' awareness of media practices of certain myths for profit maximization by selling news about human suffering and disaster. 55% of respondents believe in the truthfulness of this claim, indicating that tabloid media are more likely to present false information, and that such behavior was present during the May floods in the Republic of Serbia in 2014. The next research goal concerned knowledge of the consequences of myth-based behavior, with few respondents being aware of both positive and negative consequences. While positive consequences of myth-based behavior are present only in certain specific conditions for some myths, such as blood, food, or clothing donations, because they assume that by practicing them, something good can be achieved for disaster victims. The research results show a high level of lack of basic knowledge in the field of disasters among respondents in the city of Belgrade, necessitating continuous education. People should acquire basic knowledge in the field of disasters in the future, as it would significantly help in everyday functioning. If manuals and reminders for disaster response were located in visible places in companies, and if continuous education and knowledge assessment of employees were conducted, it is assumed that the level of disaster awareness would be satisfactory, and people's behavior in disaster conditions would be supported by scientific facts. Myths about disasters will continue to exist among the population and members of intervention and rescue services, given the imperfections in the system of improving knowledge in the field of disasters. In order to mitigate or prevent their existence and practice, it is necessary to continuously conduct research and education to comprehensively raise citizens' awareness of all facts from the field of disaster studies. Referenca - Cvetković, V., & Marina, J. (2021). Mitovi o katastrofama: istine i zablude. Beograd: Naučno-stručno društvo za upravljanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama.

Metodologija istraživanja katastrofa i rizika - teorije, koncepti i metode

Zakoračiti u svet jedne naučne discipline bez odgovorajućih „alata“ može biti i te kako zastrašujuće i iscrplјujuće za mlade istraživače u oblasti katastrofa te je pojava monografije koja nudi osnovna i početna saznanja neophodna za razumevanje višestrukih multidisciplinarnih teorija i koncepata zaista dragocena. Dugo se osećala potreba za delom koje bi ne samo pomoglo da se izbegnu početničke pogreške već i usmerilo istraživače ka sveobuhvatnijem razumevanju katastrofa i promišlјanju o njima. Pred čitaocima je, konačno, rukopis iz kojeg se može donekle sagledati koliko se naučna oblast istraživanja katastrofa razvila i na koji način je evoluirala. Autorova višegodišnja istraživanja dala su poseban pečat i vrednost ovoj monografiji koja će poslužiti kao svojevrsni putokaz sadašnjim i budućim istraživačima u ovoj oblasti. Polazeći od neophodnosti postojanja jasnog kategorijalnog aparata jedne naučne discipline, Metodologija istraživanja katastrofa i rizika – teorije, koncepti i metode daje skroman doprinos razgraničenju popularnih koncepata. Na sveobuhvatan i sažet način opisuje se oblast proučavanja i stvaraju uslovi za izgradnju teorija i akumulaciju znanja, daje se i sveobuhvatan pregled najznačajnijih teorija i opisuju se primene kvantitativne i kvalitativne istraživačke tradicije prilikom istraživanja katastrofa i rizika. Monografija se svesrdno preporučuje studentima, istraživačima i ostalima koji se na bilo koji način interesuju za oblast katastrofe. Posebnu zahvalnost za ideju da napišem delo koje bi dalo osnovne metodološke smernice zainteresovanim istraživačima iz oblasti katastrofa dugujem cenjenom prof. dr Kosti Andrejeviću, osnivaču Zadužbine Andrejević, koji je značajno uticao na moj naučni rad. Podršku za nastanak monografije dugujem i Centru za katastrofe i ekološku bezbednost, formiranom u okviru Univerziteta u Beogradu, Fakulteta bezbednosti, Katedre studija civilne zaštite i zaštite životne sredine, kojom rukovodi prof. dr Vladimir Jakovlјević kome dugujem posebnu zahvalnost na nesebičnoj podršci i znanju koje mi je od srca pružio u teškim trenucima naučnog usavršavanja i napredovanja. Posebnu zahvalnost dugujem i recenzentima prof. dr Vladimiru Jakovlјeviću, prof. dr Srđanu Milašinoviću i prof. dr Slavolјubu Dragićeviću koji su u velikoj meri unapredili rukopis. Ovom prilikom spomenuo bih i ostale profesore koji su dali značajan doprinos mojim teorijskim saznanjima i mladoj naučnoj disciplini upravlјanja u katastrofama – prof. dr Želimir Kešetović, prof. dr Jasmina Gačić, prof. dr Boban Milojković i prof. dr Dragan Mlađan. Iskreno se zahvalјujem Zadužbini Andrejević na nesebičnoj podršci koju mi pruža i našoj uspešnoj višegodišnjoj saradnji. U ovoj monografiji sistematizovanoj u veći broj opštih i posebnih poglavlјa autor na pristupačan i vrlo razumlјiv način teorijski razmatra i opisuje najznačajnije pojmove, koncepte i teorije u vezi sa katastrofama i rizikom. Prve tri glave posvećene su definisanju, klasifikaciji i razumevanju katastrofa i opasnosti kao osnovnih pojmova. U okviru teksta koji se odnosi na aktuelne koncepte u oblasti istraživanja katastrofa, autor veoma sažeto opisuje pojam, karakteristike i dimenzije ugroženosti, otpornosti i rizika sa posebnim osvrtom na percepciju, modele i metodologiju procene rizika od katastrofa. Središnji deo teksta odnosi se na metode istraživanja katastrofa, tj. na opisivanje evolucije i karakteristika takvih metoda. Polazeći od dve najznačajnije istraživačke tradicije, autor detalјno analizira, opisuje i objašnjava primenu kvantitativne i kvalitativne istraživačke tradicije za istraživanje katastrofa. U završnom delu teksta daje se pregled osnovnih karakteristika i mogućnosti primene teorija ugroženosti, otpornosti, pripremlјenosti, planiranog ponašanja, simboličkog interakcionizma, sistema i odlučivanja u oblasti istraživanja katastrofa. Na kraju, razmatraju se različiti modeli zastuplјeni u literaturi o katastrofama. Nudeći javnosti znanja sakuplјana tokom više godina podrobnog izučavanja i naučnog rada, autor se nada da će monografija Metodologija istraživanja katastrofa i rizika – teorije, koncepti i metode biti od konkretne pomoći istraživačima koji se bave ovom sve popularnijom i neophodnijom naučnom disciplinom, istovremeno dajući doprinos sistematičnom i sveobuhvatnom unapređenju teorijskog fonda saznanja.Imajući u vidu određene svetske trendove, katastrofe će i dalјe biti u fokusu primenjenih socioloških istraživanja. Budućnost može doneti veće i gore katastrofe. Ovako ohrabrujuća predviđanja budućnosti katastrofa nužno ne označavaju da će sama istraživanja automatski postati deo teorijskih temelјa unutar discipline niti da će sve oblasti pronaći srodnu disciplinu koja će biti izvor ideja u razumevanju lјudskog faktora u slučaju katastrofa. Kvaranteli [379] je nedavno naveo niz društvenih činjenica kao povod za sve veći broj katastrofa: dolazi do porasta broja tehničko-tehnoloških katastrofa koje u prošlosti nisu postojale; postoje takve tehnološke prednosti koje mogu ublažiti određene katastrofe, ali uzrokovati složenost u suzbijanju drugih, kao što su veliki požari i avionske nezgode; pojava novih verzija razvila je nove i stare opasnosti, kao npr. pojava suše u gradovima, pre nego u ruralnim naselјima; postoji opasnost od pojave nove vrste tehničko-tehnoloških katastrofa koje mogu dovesti do katastrofe, npr. biotehnologija, kompjuterske nezgode; može doći do povećanja broja istovremenih ili sinhronizovanih katastrofa u vidu više teških udara, npr. pojava tornada i radioaktivnih oblaka; zaposleni u oblastima upravlјanja u će imati veću ulogu u određenim oblastima; ugrožene populacije će biti na udaru, npr. u mnogim oblastima; u velikom broju slučajeva, najugroženije su metropole. Nјihova kompleksnost i diverzitet umnožavaju probleme; izvori katastrofa koji su vrlo udalјeni mogu dovesti do katastrofalnih posledica. U neposrednoj budućnosti, mogućnosti za istraživanja katastrofe su veoma ohrabrujuće. U sledećoj deceniji doći će do znatnog porasta u pažnji koju menadžeri u katastrofama posvećuju oblastima istraživanja koje su u prošlosti bile od uticaja. I tako povećana tehnološka nezavisnost, urbanizacija i društvena kompleksnost će dovesti do povećanja broja i razmera katastrofa. U takvom okruženju istraživači neće traćiti svije mogućnosti i ova društvena kretanja će se odraziti na ulogu i status budućih istraživanja. Otkada je istraživanje katastrfoa postalo poesbno polјe istraživanja, istraživači su sve više i više bili upitani da uporede prebleme koji proizilaze iz prirodnih i tehničko-tehnoloških katastrofa uz to da su ovi poslednji bili češće proučavani od strane sociologa. Rukovodioci interventno-spasilačkih službi u katastrofama i javno mnjenje imali su dobre razloge da vode računa o tim poređenjima. Prvo, postoje i koristi i rizici povezani sa razvojem tehnologije. Drugo, prevencija bilo koje katastrofe, bez obzira na vrstu je veoma važna. Treće, ukoliko prevencija zakaže, pitanja u vezi sa fizičkim i društvenom uticajima i oporavkom od njih su važna. Počevši od 1950. godine kada je objavlјeno prvo sociološko istraživanje iz oblasti katastrofa, pa sve do danas, uspostavlјeni su mnogobrojni koncepti i prilagođene mnoge teorije za potrebe istraživanja katastrofa. Istraživanja katastrofa nastaviće da se razvijaju kroz raznovrsne disciplinarne, multidisciplinarne i interdisciplinarne perspektive. Potrebno je nastaviti sa sprovođenjem empirijskih istraživanja kako bi se mnoge teorije i hipoteze u što većoj meri potvrdile ili opovrgle. Posebnu pažnju je potrebno usmeriti unapređenju naučnog podmlatka u ovoj oblasti. Stepping into the world of a scientific discipline without the appropriate "tools" can be quite daunting and exhausting for young researchers in the field of disasters, so the appearance of a monograph that offers basic and introductory knowledge necessary for understanding multiple multidisciplinary theories and concepts is truly valuable. There has long been a need for a work that would not only help avoid beginner's mistakes but also direct researchers towards a more comprehensive understanding of disasters and reflection on them. Finally, before the readers is a manuscript that provides some insight into how much the scientific field of disaster research has developed and evolved. The author's years of research have given a special stamp and value to this monograph, which will serve as a sort of guide for current and future researchers in this field. Starting from the necessity of having a clear categorical apparatus of a scientific discipline, the Methodology of Disaster and Risk Research – Theories, Concepts, and Methods modestly contributes to delineating popular concepts. In a comprehensive and concise manner, it describes the field of study and creates conditions for theory building and knowledge accumulation, provides a comprehensive overview of the most significant theories, and describes the applications of quantitative and qualitative research traditions in disaster and risk research. The monograph is wholeheartedly recommended to students, researchers, and others interested in the field of disasters. Special thanks for the idea of writing a work that would provide basic methodological guidance to interested researchers in the field of disasters are owed to the esteemed Prof. Dr. Kosta Andrejević, founder of the Andrejević Foundation, who significantly influenced my scientific work. Support for the creation of the monograph is also owed to the Center for Disasters and Environmental Security, formed within the University of Belgrade, Faculty of Security, Department of Civil Protection and Environmental Protection Studies, led by Prof. Dr. Vladimir Jakovljević, to whom I owe special thanks for the selfless support and knowledge he provided me with during difficult moments of scientific advancement. Special thanks are also owed to the reviewers Prof. Dr. Vladimir Jakovljević, Prof. Dr. Srđan Milašinović, and Prof. Dr. Slavoljub Dragićević, who greatly improved the manuscript. On this occasion, I would also like to mention other professors who have made a significant contribution to my theoretical knowledge and the young scientific discipline of disaster management – Prof. Dr. Želimir Kešetović, Prof. Dr. Jasmina Gačić, Prof. Dr. Boban Milojković, and Prof. Dr. Dragan Mlađan. Sincere thanks to the Andrejević Foundation for the selfless support it provides me and our successful long-term cooperation. In this monograph, organized into several general and specific chapters, the author theoretically examines and describes the most important concepts, concepts, and theories related to disasters and risk in an accessible and very understandable manner. The first three chapters are dedicated to defining, classifying, and understanding disasters and hazards as basic concepts. Within the text related to current concepts in the field of disaster research, the author very succinctly describes the concept, characteristics, and dimensions of vulnerability, resilience, and risk, with a special focus on the perception, models, and methodology of disaster risk assessment. The central part of the text deals with methods of disaster research, i.e., describing the evolution and characteristics of such methods. Starting from the two most significant research traditions, the author thoroughly analyzes, describes, and explains the application of quantitative and qualitative research traditions for disaster research. The final part of the text provides an overview of the basic characteristics and possibilities of applying theories of vulnerability, resilience, preparedness, planned behavior, symbolic interactionism, systems, and decision-making in disaster research. Finally, various models represented in the disaster literature are discussed. By offering the public knowledge gathered over several years of in-depth study and scientific work, the author hopes that the monograph Methodology of Disaster and Risk Research – Theories, Concepts, and Methods will be of concrete assistance to researchers engaged in this increasingly popular and necessary scientific discipline, simultaneously contributing to the systematic and comprehensive improvement of the theoretical knowledge base. Considering certain global trends, disasters will continue to be a focal point of applied sociological research. The future may bring larger and worse disasters. However, such encouraging predictions about the future of disasters do not necessarily mean that research will automatically become part of the theoretical foundations within the discipline, nor that all areas will find a related discipline that will be a source of ideas in understanding the human factor in disasters. Quarantelli recently listed a series of social facts as reasons for an increasing number of disasters: there is an increase in the number of technical-technological disasters that did not exist in the past; certain technological advances can mitigate certain disasters but cause complexity in combating others, such as major fires and plane crashes; the emergence of new versions has developed new and old hazards, such as the onset of drought in cities rather than rural areas; there is a risk of the emergence of new types of technical-technological disasters that can lead to catastrophe, e.g., biotechnology, computer accidents; there may be an increase in the number of simultaneous or synchronized disasters in the form of multiple severe impacts, e.g., the occurrence of tornadoes and radioactive clouds; employees in disaster management areas will play a greater role in certain areas; vulnerable populations will be at risk, e.g., in many areas; in many cases, the most vulnerable are metropolises. Their complexity and diversity multiply problems; sources of disasters that are very distant can lead to catastrophic consequences. In the immediate future, the possibilities for disaster research are very encouraging. In the next decade, there will be a significant increase in the attention that disaster managers pay to areas of research that have been influential in the past. And so increased technological independence, urbanization, and social complexity will lead to an increase in the number and scale of disasters. In such an environment, researchers will not lack opportunities, and these social trends will affect the role and status of future research. Since disaster research became a distinct field of study, researchers have been increasingly asked to compare problems arising from natural and technical-technological disasters, with the latter being more frequently studied by sociologists. Disaster response leaders and public opinion have had good reasons to pay attention to these comparisons. First, there are benefits and risks associated with technological development. Second, prevention of any disaster, regardless of type, is very important. Third, if prevention fails, questions regarding physical and social impacts and recovery from them are important. From 1950, when the first sociological study on disasters was published, until today, numerous concepts have been established, and many theories have been adapted for disaster research purposes. Disaster research will continue to evolve through various disciplinary, multidisciplinary, and interdisciplinary perspectives. It is necessary to continue conducting empirical research to confirm or refute many theories and hypotheses to the greatest extent possible. Special attention should be paid to nurturing young talent in this field. Referenca - Cvetković, V. (2017). Metodologija istraživanja katastrofa i rizika: teorije, koncepti i metode (Disaster and Risk Research Methodology: Theories, Concepts and Methods). Beograd: Zadužbina Andrejević.

PROCENA RIZIKA U SPREČAVANJU IZVRŠENJA KRIVIČNIH DELA EKSPLOZIVNIM MATERIJAMA (RISK ASSESSMENT IN PREVENTING THE PERPETRATION OF CRIMINAL OFFENSES USING EXPLOSIVE MATERIALS)

Eksplozivne materije su veoma pogodno sredstvo za izazivanje tehničko-tehnoloških udesa koji veoma često sadrže elemente određenih krivičnih dela kojima se ugrožava zdravlјe i životi lјudi, materijalna dobra i životna sredina. Esplozivne materije su jedna vrsta opasnih materija, što nedvosmisleno ukazuje na stepen njihove opasnosti i razorne moći prilikom njihovog aktiviranja. Imajući to u vidu, u monografiji se prvo i iznose sadržaji koji se odnose na pojam i podelu opasnih materija, a potom na pojam i vrste eksplozivnih materija, sa posebnim osvrtoma na karakteristike i osnovne delatnosti sa opasnim materijama (proizvodnja, promet, transport i smeštaj) od značaja za procenu rizika izvršenja krivičnih dela. U tom kontekstu, na osnovu rezultata sprovedenih istraživanja, prezentirane su mere zaštite i nadzora u proizvodnji, promestu, transportu i skladištenju eksplozivnih materija s aspekta njihovog značaja za otklanjanje uzroka i identifikaciju rizika izvršenja krivičnih dela eksplozivnim materijama. Analizirajući načine izvršenja krivičnih dela eksplozivnim materijama, što je od značaja za identifikaciju rizika i njihovu analizu, proizašla je i klasifikacija takvih krivičnih dela u tri osnovne grupe. Tako, u prvu grupu spadaju krivična dela koja se mogu izvršiti upotrebom eksplozivne materije, ali bez njenog aktiviranja, dok drugu grupu čine krivična dela čije izvršenje podrazumeva aktiviranje eksplozivne materije. U treću grupu spadaju krivična dela koja u svom opisu ne sadrže konkretna sredstva izvršenja, ali, pored ostalih sredstava, mogu da budu izvršena i eksplozivnim materijama, pri čijem izvršenju takođe dolazi do eksplozije eksplozivne materije. U sklopu procene rizika izvršenja krivičnih dela odgovarajuća pažnja je posvećena značaju procene rizika u domenu prevencije, odnosno u sprečavanju izvršenja krivičnih dela eksplozivnim materijama. Ovaj segment istraživanja, sasvim logično, polazi od pojma i klasifikacije rizika i metodologije procene rizika izvršenja krivičnih dela u osnovnim delatnostima sa eksplozivnim materijama, pa do prezentiranja sadržaja koji se odnose na konkretne metode koje se mogu koristiti u proceni rizika izvršenja ovih krivičnih dela. Polazeći od značaja procene rizika u domenu rada sa eksplozivnim materijama, pored nacionalne pravne regulative i standarda, izvršena je i analiza međunarodnih akata i standarda od značaja ne samo za sprečavanje, već i za suzbijanje krivičnih dela koja se vrše eksplozivnim materijama. Ovakva detalјna analiza ukazala je i na izvesne nedostatke u regulativi eksplozivnih i drugih opasnih materija od uticaja na preduzimanje preventivnih mera u cilјu sprečavanja tehničko-tehnoloških udesa izazvanh eksplozivnim materijama, posebno onih težih koji predstavlјaju i izvršenje krivičnih del, pa je i usledila komparativna analiza usklađenosti nacionalnog zakonodavstva sa evropskim pravom u ovoj oblasti. Policija koja deluje pre svega represivno, ima i značajnu ulogu u sprečavanju krivičnih dela koja se vrše eksplozivnim materijama, pa je stoga i ukazano na mogućnosti delovanja policije i Sektora za vanredne situacije u domenu procene rizika izvršenja krivičnih dela koja se vrše ili se mogu izvršiti upotrebom neke od eksplozivnih materija. S aspekta efikasnijeg preventivnog delovanja, posebno su potencirane slabosti klasičnog reaktivnog koncepta delovanja policije u odnosu na prednosti proaktivnog delovanja i ukazano na nužnost i prednost blagovremene i potpune saradnje policije i Sektora za vanredne situacije, kao i na njihovu saradnju sa drugim subjektima. Aktivnost i međusobna saradnja policije, Sektora za vanredne situacije, javnog tužilaštva, prfivrednih društava i nekih drugih subjekata je od ogromnog značaja za efikasno sprečavanje krivičnih dela koja se mogu izvršiti eksplozivnim materijama. U cilјu uspešnije identifikacije rizika izvršenja krivičnih dela eksplozivnim materijama i efikasnijeg preduzimanja mera na otklanjanju i smanjenju takvih rizika, ukazano je i na mogućnosti preventivnog delovanja policije nakon izvršenog krivičnog dela eksplozivnim materijama. Explosive materials are highly suitable for causing technological accidents that often involve elements of specific criminal offenses endangering human health and lives, property, and the environment. Explosive materials are a type of hazardous substance, unequivocally indicating the degree of their danger and destructive power upon activation. Bearing this in mind, the monograph first presents the contents related to the concept and classification of hazardous materials, followed by the concept and types of explosive materials, with particular emphasis on the characteristics and basic activities involving hazardous materials (production, trade, transport, and storage) relevant to the risk assessment of committing criminal offenses. In this context, based on the results of conducted research, protective and supervisory measures in the production, trade, transport, and storage of explosive materials are presented from the perspective of their significance in eliminating causes and identifying risks of committing criminal offenses using explosive materials. By analyzing methods of committing criminal offenses using explosive materials, which is significant for risk identification and analysis, a classification of such criminal offenses into three main groups has emerged. Thus, the first group comprises criminal offenses that can be committed using explosive materials but without their activation, while the second group consists of criminal offenses whose commission involves the activation of explosive materials. The third group encompasses criminal offenses that do not explicitly specify the means of commission but may involve, among other means, the use of explosive materials, leading to an explosion during their execution. Within the risk assessment of committing criminal offenses, appropriate attention is devoted to the importance of risk assessment in the domain of prevention, i.e., in preventing the commission of criminal offenses using explosive materials. This segment of research logically begins with the concept and classification of risks and the methodology of risk assessment of committing criminal offenses in basic activities involving explosive materials, leading to the presentation of methods that can be used in assessing the risk of committing these criminal offenses. Considering the importance of risk assessment in working with explosive materials, in addition to national legal regulations and standards, an analysis of international acts and standards of significance not only for prevention but also for combating criminal offenses committed using explosive materials has been conducted. Such a detailed analysis has also highlighted certain deficiencies in the regulation of explosive and other hazardous materials affecting the implementation of preventive measures aimed at preventing technological accidents caused by explosive materials, particularly serious ones constituting criminal offenses, followed by a comparative analysis of the alignment of national legislation with European law in this area. The police, primarily acting repressively, also play a significant role in preventing criminal offenses involving explosive materials; therefore, possibilities for police and Emergency Situations Sector action in the risk assessment of committing criminal offenses using explosive materials have been highlighted. In terms of more effective preventive action, the weaknesses of the classical reactive police action have been emphasized in comparison to the advantages of proactive action, stressing the necessity and advantage of timely and complete cooperation between the police and the Emergency Situations Sector, as well as their cooperation with other entities. The activity and mutual cooperation of the police, the Emergency Situations Sector, the public prosecutor's office, private companies, and some other entities are of immense importance for effectively preventing criminal offenses that can be committed using explosive materials. In order to more successfully identify the risks of committing criminal offenses using explosive materials and take more effective measures to eliminate and reduce such risks, possibilities for police preventive action after a criminal offense committed using explosive materials have also been indicated. Referenca - Bošković, D., & Cvetković, V. (2017). Procena rizika u sprečavanju izvršenja krivičnih dela eksplozivnim materijama. Beograd: Kriminalističko-policijska akademija.

PRIRODNE KATASTROFE I OBRAZOVANJE (NATURAL DISASTERS AND EDUCATION)

Prirodne katastrofe sve ozbiljnije ugrožavaju bezbednost savremenog čovečanstva. Ne samo da je, poslednjih decenija evidentan trend povećanja broja, nego je prisutno i povećanje njihove destruktivnosti. To za posledicu ima i povećane ljudske gubitke, materijalnu i nematerijalnu štetu. Istorijski posmatrano, pravo na obrazovanje o prirodnim katastrofama u prošlosti nije bilo afirmisano i priznavano. Međutim, sa XXI vekom, uloga takvog vida obrazovanja je postala nedvosmisleno jasna i priznata. Sam značaj obrazovanja u tom cilju je prepoznat u mnogim međunarodnim konvencijama, sa jasnim naglašavanjem da škole, porodice i lokalne zajednice igraju odlučujuću ulogu u smanjenju ozbiljnosti posledica nastalih prirodnim katastrofama, kroz proces razvijanja svesti i znanja o prirodnim katastrofama. U pogledu smanjenja rizika od katastrofa, škole bi trebalo da postanu sve značajniji subjekti kreiranja i unapređenja bezbednosne kulture mladih, što se odnosi i na njihovo osposobljavanje za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. One bi morale da igraju ključnu ulogu u obezbeđivanju osnovnih informacija kako se zaštiti prilikom prirodnih katastrofa. Generalno, porodice i lokalne zajednice se dobro bore sa katastrofama koristeći svoja znanja i iskustva koja su stekli sa prošlim takvim situacijama. Obrazovanje u vezi sa katastrofama je za porodicu i lokalnu zajednicu usmereno ka razvijanju sposobnosti da prepoznaju karakteristike takvih pojava, da zaštite sebe i druge, odnosno da adekvatno odreaguju u datom momentu Predmet naučne monografije predstavlja ispitivanje povezanosti određenih faktora (pol, starost, obrazovanost i zaposlenost roditelja, članovi porodice sa kojima se živi, strah i škola/porodica) sa znanjem i percepcijom o prirodnim katastrofama (litosferske, hidrosferske, atmosferske i biosferske). S obzirom na usmerenost istraživačkog dizajna na utvrđivanje prirode i jačine povezanosti ispitivanih faktora sa znanjem učenika, istraživanje ima eksplikativni cilj. Naime, autori koriste metod anketiranja učenika kako bi identifikovali i opisali faktore uticaja na znanje i percepciju o prirodnim katastrofama. U istraživanju korišćen je posebno konstruisani instrument koji je sadržao 7 pitanja koja se odnose na nezavisne varijable (pol, godine, obrazovanje majke i oca, zaposlenost roditelja, članovi domaćinstva sa kojima se živi, prosečna ocena u školi) i 20 pitanja koja se odnose na znanje i percepciju učenika o prirodnim katastrofama, odnosno o poplavama (pitanja u vezi: znanja, percepcije i poznavanja bezbednosne procedure reagovanja, straha, informisanosti u okviru škole i porodice, posledica, želje da se više nauči, osećanja zaštićenosti u školama, obuke, uvođenja predmeta, načina i želje za sticanjem informacija, iskustva sa poplavom itd.). Imajući u vidu geoprostor Srbije, istraživanje se bazira samo na geoprostoru Beograda, tako da se zaključci mogu generalizovati samo na populaciju učenika srednjih škola sa tog područja. S obzirom na evidentan nedostatak obrazovanja o prirodnim katastrofama u Srbiji, rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija obrazovnih programa, što bi doprinelo unapređenju bezbednosne kulture mladih. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju na potencijalne modalitete uticaja na učenike srednjih škola kako bi nivo percepcije i znanja o poplavama dostigao veću vrednost. Cilj naučnog istraživanja predstavlja naučna deskripcija i eksplikacija povezanosti različitih faktora sa znanjem učenika o prirodnim katastrofama. Naučna monografija je sistematizovana u dva dela: teorijski i istraživački. U sklopu teorijskog dela, autori se bave fenomenologijom prirodnih katastrofa i ulogom obrazovanja u smanjenju rizika od prirodnih katastrofa. Autori posebnu pažnju pridaju teorijskom razmatranju pojmovnog određenja i klasifikaciji prirodnih katastrofa, kao i ulozi škola, visoko-obrazovnih instituacija, porodice i lokalnih zajednica u smanjenju rizika od prirodnih katastrofa. Istraživački deo naučne monografije, pored metodološkog okvira sastoji se od četiri celine: znanje i percepcija učenika srednjih škola o litosferskim, hidrosferskim, atmosferskim i biosferskim katastrofama. U okviru navedenih celina, za svaku od pojedinačnih katastrofa daje se pregled rezultata opisnih statističkih pokazatelja i ispitivanja povezanosti određenih faktora sa znanjem i percepcijom učenika o prirodnim katastrofama. Posebnu zahvalnost za nesebičnu i veoma profesionalnu podršku, autori duguju recenzentima prof. dr Slavoljubu Dragićeviću, vanrednom profesoru Geografskog fakulteta, Univerziteta u Beogradu, prof. dr Bobanu Milojkoviću, redovnom profesoru Kriminalističko-policijske akademije u Beogradu i doc. dr Ljubinki Katić, docentu na Fakultetu bezbednosti, Univerziteta u Beogradu. Dobro su poznati empirijski podaci o rastućim pretnjama, a do nas skoro svakodnevno dopiru preko sredstava javnog informisanja. Uprkos izraženoj ekspanziji znanja i razvoju industrije i tehnologije, lјudska zajednica nije postala bolјe i više bezbedno mesto. U uslovima savremenog istorijskog razdoblјa koga mnogi nazivaju „Novo doba“ ne postavlјa se pitanje da pretnje bezbednosti nisu nestale, već da su se samo preoblikovale. Stara blokovska konfronatacija ustupila je mesto novom tipu tenzija i sukoba sa izrazitim nasilјem, pre svega sa drastičnim i masivnim kršenjem lјudskih prava. Priroda sukoba se u savremenim uslovima, naročito sa krajem hladnog rata, sve više pomera prema unutar državnim konfliktima, sa sve većim brojem civilnih žrtava. Porast stanovništva zajedno sa potrošačkim mentalitetom doprinosi globalnoj ekološkoj nebezbednosti, povećanim migracijama i izrazitoj potrošnji vodnih i energetskih resursa. Ekonomska kriza uništila je finansijske i proizvodne kapacitete i dovela je veliki broj lјudi u stanje siromaštva. Tragični događaji izazvani terorističkim aktima mobilisali su institucije na svim nivoima kako bi se smanjila potencijalna asimetrična pretnja. Ostale pretnje koje se povećavaju ili menjaju oblik uklјučuju međunarodnu kriminalnu aktivnost, širenje nuklearnog naoružanja, bolesti i epidemija koje su otporne na lekove, finansijski krah država, tehnološke nesreće, kao i sukobe unutar religija. Dvadeseti vek obeležila je važna promena svatanja fenomena bezbednosti koje pravi značajan zaokret u korist prirodnih opasnosti visokog intenziteta koje kao ishod često imaju katastrofalne posledice. Velike razmere i izazivanje stanja prirodnih katastrofa naročito su karakteristične za seizmološke, atmosfersko-meteorološke, hidrološke opasnosti (zemlјotrese, klizišta, poplave, uragane, suše, požare) koji u velikoj meri ugrožavaju pojedince, privredu, klјučnu i kritičnu infrastrukturu kao i društvenu zajednicu u celini. Danas, kao i tokom celog razvoja čovečanstva, rušilačke snage prirode i saniranje posledica elementarnih nepogoda predstavlјaju veliki izazov, jer su žrtve i materijalni gubici u ovim slučajevima veoma veliki. Nekada je čovek bio zbunjen i uplašen pred strašnim prirodnim opasnostima a postupno tokom vekova i hilјada godina čovek je počeo da shvata da prividnim haosom upravlјaju strogi zakoni prirode. Statistički podaci koje je objavila Kancelarija UN za smanjenje rizika od katastrofa (UNISDR) pokazuju da je ukupna šteta na globalnom nivou prouzrokovana elementarnim nepogodama u 2012. godini iznosi 160 milijardi dolara, od čega 65 milijardi dolara će biti nadoknađeno iz osiguravajućih društva kako je objavio nemački reosigurač Munich Ree (kompanija koja se bavi reosiguranjem). Velike posledice ispolјene su i 2011. godine koja je poznata po zemlјotresima u Japanu i na Novom Zelandu kao i velike poplave na Tajlandu. Tokom sedamdesetih godina prošlog veka oko 700.000 lјudi izgubilo je živote u prirodnim katastrofama. Sada se procenjuje da se taj broj kreće i do 800.000 žrtava. Procenjuje se da suše prouzrokuju 33% lјudskih žrtava, 32% poplave, 20% tropski cikloni, što su ogromne brojke u odnosu na 4% lјudskih žrtava kojima su uzrok zemlјotresi. Ukupna godišnja šteta od prirodnih opasnosti kretala se od 50 do 60 milijardi dolara na godišnjem nivou, a sada se procenjuje na skoro 100 milijardi dolara godišnje. Empirijski opisi prirodnih opasnosti od suštinskog su značaja su da bi se spoznali obim, veličina i dubina pretnje, kako bi se odredilo koliko bi ona mogla da bude kritična i sveobuhvatna. U odgovoru na očigledno promenjeno bezbednosno okruženje, teorijske kvalitativne i kvantitativne analize ukazuju na uzročnu vezu i međuzavisnost između pretnji i aktivnosti zajednice. Poznato je, međutim, da analize i rasprave u međunarodnim i nacionalnim okvirima, među teoretičarima i stručnjacima o značenju i valјanosti onoga što sačinjava pojam katastrofa nisu nove i nepoznate. Šta jeste i šta sve može da znači katastrofa, koji je njen smisao i koji su njeni oblici-pitanja su koja se nalaze u fokusu gotovo svih društvenih nauka. Samim time, svedoci smo neverovatne konfuzije prilikom određivanja opsega, sadržaja definisanja, cilјa i svrhe, kao i samog konteksta definisanja katastrofe. Odatle slede nužne posledice u vidu beskrajnog proširenja ili čak sužavanja značenja, tj. sadržaja i obima pojma, sve uz stalnu borbu novih teorija, naučnih disciplina, istraživačkih polјa i praktičnih aktivnosti. Pomenuta pojmovna neodređenost izaziva mnoštvo zainteresovanih: od teoretičara, naučnika, bezbednosnih analitičara sve do stručnjaka iz oblasti upravlјanja vanrednim situacijama. Većina autora u ovoj oblasti povlači jasnu granicu između iracionalnog tumačenja nesreća i katastrofa, karakterističnog za stara društva, i odmerenog objašnjenja rezervisanog za moderna društva. Značajan broj teoretičara u svojim analizama objašnjavaju da ne postoji katastrofa po sebi, kao takva. Naime, postoje s jedne strane, prirodne slučajnosti, sa druge ranjivost, koje u izvesnim okolnostima međusobno delaju i pretvaraju se u katastrofu. Danas je neophodno neprestano ponavlјati da je moderna civilizacija sklona katastrofama, koje redovno iznenađuju borce protiv posledica. U fazi u kojoj smo trenutno- veličina svakodnevnog napretka sastoji se od popravlјanja direktne ili kolateralne štete koja je rezultat prošlih ili tekućih napora da se ubrza taj napredak. Prirodne katastrofe sve ozbilјnije ugrožavaju bezbednost savremenog čovečanstva. Ne samo da je, poslednjih decenija evidentan trend povećanja broja, nego je prisutno i povećanje njihove destruktivnosti. To za posledicu ima i povećane lјudske gubitke, materijalnu i nematerijalnu štetu. Dakle, prirodne katastrofe predstavlјaju događaje koji imaju veliki i tragični uticaj po društvo, narušavaju uobičajene načine života, ometaju ekonomske, kulturne, a ponekad i političke uslove života i usporavaju razvoj zajednice i zahtevaju preduzimanje posebnih mera od strane interventno-spasilačkih službi u vanrednim situacijama. Slobodno se može reći da prirodne katastrofe predstavlјaju posledice međusobnih uticaja prirodnih događaja (geofizički procesi i ostale procesi u prirodi) i lјudskih sistema (društveno – ekonomskih, kulturnih i fizičkih). Smanjenje rizika od katastrofa može smanjiti neželјene posledice prirodnih katastrofa ali ne može doneti stoprocentnu zaštitu jer je to na žalost nemoguće. I dalјe treba preduzimati mere za smanjenje rizika od katastrofa kako bi rizike doveli u ,,prihvatlјive“ okvire, koji će kad se prirodne katastrofe dogode, imati minimalne posledice po lјude i imovinu. Upravo zbog toga, građane treba sistematski, blagovremeno i stručno informisati o svim potencijalnim opasnostima i rizicima koju mogu ugroziti njihov život te ih edukovati kako se samozaštititi, kako postupati u vanrednim situacijama. Treba podsticati njihovo aktivno učešće kako bi oni bili prvi na liniji odbrane ukoliko se dogode neželјene posledice. Broj prirodnih katastrofa u svetu i Srbiji je porastu i pri tome, došlo je do promene fokusa i to sa ,,oporavka od prirodnih katastrofa“ na ,,upravlјanje rizikom i ublažavanje posledica“. Obrazovanje učenika i građana o prirodnim katastrofama predstavlјa najznačajniju meru u cilјu ublažavanja posledica od prirodnih katastrofa. Kao takvo, može se ostvariti u školama, porodici i lokalnoj zajednici. Pri tome, ono je još uvek nerazvijeno i ne pridaje mu se odgovarajući značaj u sistemu školovanja u Srbiji. Može se realizovati kroz formalno, neformalno i informalno obrazovanje. Pošto su deca najugroženija kategorija građana, škole imaju veliki značaj u razvijanju svesti o posledicama i merama zaštite od katastrofa. Porodica i lokalna zajednica sveobuhvatno mogu uticati na ublažavanje posledica, razvijanjem svesti o prirodnim katastrofama koristeći svoja znanja i iskustva koja su stekli prilikom otklanjanja posledica prošlih pririrodnih katastrofa. Obrazovanje o prirodnim katastrofama ne bi smelo da bude ograničeno samo na škole. Značaj obrazovanja u cilјu smanjenja rizika o prirodnih katastrofa je istaknut u mnogim međunarodnim agendama, okvirima, konferencijama. Shodno tome, u mnogim državama širom sveta u obrazovne programe su već implementirani sadržaji u vezi prirodnih katastrofa. Svakako, internet i savremeni tehnološki razvoj umnogome olakšavaju razmenu znanja i iskustva o prirodnim katastrofama. Kroz obrazovanje članova lokalne zajednice, ta ista zajednica postaje otpornija na posledice prirodnih katastrofa. U strateškim i zakonskim dokumentima je širom sveta prepoznat značaj obrazovanja u cilјu smanjenja rizika od prirodnih katastrofa. Nakon utvrđivanja povezanosti nezavisnih promenlјiva (pol, starost, obrazovanost roditelјa i ispitanika, zaposlenost, članovi porodice, strah, škola/porodica) sa percepcijom, znanjem i poznavanjem bezbednosne procedure za pojedinačne prirodne katastrofe, opredelili smo se da na kraju objedinimo rezultate svih statističkih analiza i pružimo konačan sud o postojanju povezanosti između nezavisnih promenlјiva i prirodnih katastrofa. Da bismo u tome uspeli, rezultate svih statističkih analiza, objedinili smo u ,,Excellu“ i uz pomoć adekvatnih matematičkih operacija, došli do konačnih rezultata. Natural disasters increasingly threaten the safety of modern humanity. Not only has there been a noticeable trend of increasing numbers in recent decades, but also an increase in their destructiveness. This results in increased human losses, material, and immaterial damage. Historically, the right to education on natural disasters has not been affirmed and recognized. However, with the 21st century, the importance of such education has become unmistakably clear and recognized. The significance of education in this regard is recognized in many international conventions, with a clear emphasis on the role of schools, families, and local communities in reducing the severity of the consequences of natural disasters through the process of developing awareness and knowledge of natural disasters. In terms of disaster risk reduction, schools should become increasingly important agents in creating and enhancing the security culture of young people, including their training to respond to natural disasters. They should play a key role in providing basic information on how to protect oneself during natural disasters. In general, families and local communities cope well with disasters using the knowledge and experience gained from past situations. Disaster education for families and local communities is aimed at developing the ability to recognize the characteristics of such events, protect themselves and others, and adequately respond at the moment. The subject of the scientific monograph is examining the relationship between certain factors (gender, age, education, and employment of parents, family members living together, fear, and school/family) with knowledge and perception of natural disasters (lithospheric, hydrospheric, atmospheric, and biospheric). Given the geographic space of Serbia, the study is based only on the Belgrade area, so the conclusions can only be generalized to the population of high school students from that area. Considering the evident lack of education on natural disasters in Serbia, the research results can be used in creating educational program strategies, contributing to the improvement of the safety culture of youth. The results of the research indicate potential modalities of influence on high school students to increase their perception and knowledge of floods. The goal of scientific research is a scientific description and explanation of the connection between various factors and students' knowledge of natural disasters. The scientific monograph is structured into two parts: theoretical and research. In the theoretical part, the authors deal with the phenomenology of natural disasters and the role of education in reducing the risk of natural disasters. The authors pay special attention to the theoretical consideration of the conceptual definition and classification of natural disasters, as well as the role of schools, higher education institutions, families, and local communities in reducing the risk of natural disasters. The research part of the scientific monograph, in addition to the methodological framework, consists of four sections: knowledge and perception of high school students about lithospheric, hydrospheric, atmospheric, and biospheric disasters. Within these sections, for each individual disaster, there is an overview of descriptive statistical indicators and investigations of the relationship between certain factors and students' knowledge and perception of natural disasters. Special thanks for their selfless and highly professional support, the authors owe to the reviewers Prof. Dr. Slavoljub Dragićević, Associate Professor at the Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Prof. Dr. Boban Milojković, Full Professor at the Criminalistic-Police Academy in Belgrade, and Doc. Dr. Ljubinka Katić, Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Security, University of Belgrade. The well-known empirical data on growing threats are reaching us almost daily through the media. Despite the pronounced expansion of knowledge and the development of industry and technology, the human community has not become a better or safer place. In the conditions of the contemporary historical period, often referred to as the "New Age," the question is not whether security threats have disappeared, but rather that they have only reshaped. The old bloc confrontation has given way to a new type of tension and conflict with pronounced violence, primarily with drastic and massive violations of human rights. The nature of conflict in modern times, especially with the end of the Cold War, is increasingly shifting towards internal state conflicts, with a growing number of civilian casualties. The increase in population together with consumerist mentality contributes to global ecological insecurity, increased migrations, and extremely high consumption of water and energy resources. The economic crisis has destroyed financial and production capacities and has pushed a large number of people into poverty. Tragic events caused by terrorist acts have mobilized institutions at all levels to reduce potential asymmetric threats. Other threats that are increasing or changing shape include international criminal activity, the proliferation of nuclear weapons, drug-resistant diseases and epidemics, state financial collapses, technological accidents, as well as conflicts within religions. The 20th century was marked by a significant change in understanding the phenomenon of security, which made a significant turn in favor of high-intensity natural hazards, often resulting in catastrophic consequences. The vast scale and occurrence of natural disaster states are particularly characteristic of seismological, atmospheric-meteorological, and hydrological hazards (earthquakes, landslides, floods, hurricanes, droughts, fires), which largely endanger individuals, the economy, key and critical infrastructure, and the entire society. Today, as throughout the development of humanity, the destructive forces of nature and the restoration of the consequences of natural disasters pose a great challenge because the victims and material losses in these cases are very significant. Once, man was confused and frightened by terrible natural hazards, but gradually over centuries and millennia, man began to understand that strict laws of nature govern apparent chaos. Statistical data released by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) show that the total global damage caused by natural disasters in 2012 amounted to $160 billion, of which $65 billion will be compensated by insurance companies, as announced by the German reinsurer Munich Re. Significant consequences were also evident in 2011, which is known for earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand, as well as major floods in Thailand. During the 1970s, around 700,000 people lost their lives in natural disasters. It is now estimated that this number ranges up to 800,000 victims. Droughts are estimated to cause 33% of human casualties, floods 32%, tropical cyclones 20%, which are huge numbers compared to the 4% of human casualties caused by earthquakes. The total annual damage from natural hazards ranged from $50 to $60 billion annually, and is now estimated at nearly $100 billion annually. Empirical descriptions of natural hazards are of essential importance to recognize the extent, size, and depth of the threat, in order to determine how critical and comprehensive it could be. In response to the visibly changed security environment, theoretical qualitative and quantitative analyses indicate a causal relationship and interdependence between threats and community activities. However, it is known that analyses and discussions in international and national frameworks, among theorists and experts on the meaning and validity of what constitutes the concept of disaster, are not new and unknown. What is and what can mean disaster, what is its meaning, and what are its forms are questions that are at the focus of almost all social sciences. Consequently, we witness incredible confusion in determining the scope, content of definition, purpose, and context of defining a disaster. From there follow necessary consequences in the form of endless expansion or even narrowing of meaning, i.e., content and scope of the term, all with a constant struggle of new theories, scientific disciplines, research fields, and practical activities. The mentioned conceptual uncertainty arouses the interest of many: from theorists, scientists, security analysts to emergency management experts. Most authors in this field draw a clear line between irrational interpretation of accidents and disasters, characteristic of old societies, and measured explanations reserved for modern societies. A significant number of theorists in their analyses explain that there is no disaster per se. Namely, there are, on the one hand, natural contingencies, and on the other hand, vulnerabilities that under certain circumstances interact and turn into a disaster. It is necessary to constantly repeat that modern civilization is prone to disasters, which regularly surprise fighters against consequences. At the stage we are currently in, the magnitude of everyday progress consists of repairing direct or collateral damage resulting from past or ongoing efforts to accelerate that progress. Natural disasters increasingly threaten the security of contemporary humanity. Not only has there been a trend of increasing numbers in recent decades, but there has also been an increase in their destructiveness. This results in increased human losses, material, and immaterial damage. Therefore, natural disasters represent events that have a significant and tragic impact on society, disrupting normal ways of life, interfering with economic, cultural, and sometimes even political conditions of life, resulting in the need for extraordinary measures and activities aimed at rehabilitation, remediation, and recovery. Referenca - Jakovljević, V., Cvetković, V., & Gačić, J. (2015). Prirodne katastrofe i obrazovanje. Beograd: Fakultet bezbednosti, Univerzitet u Beogradu.

PRIRODNE KATASTROFE: GEOPROSTORNA I VREMENSKA DISTRIBUCIJA (NATURAL DISASTERS: GEOSPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION)

Prirodne katastrofe oduvek su izazivale strah kod čoveka, a on im je, nepoznat, u istoriji davao odnosno pripisivao različita značenja, istovremeno pokušavajući da pronađe različite razloge njihovog nastanka, odnosno da ih objasni. Činjenica da se poslednjih decenija znatno povećao broj prirodnih katastrofa, što za posledicu ima sve veći broj žrtava, a posebno povećana materijalna šteta, pripisuje se broju katastrofa s jedne strane i procesu ultra-galopirajuća antropogena aktivnost čoveka s druge strane. Pred vama je rukopis koji je rezultat zajedničkog rada autora koji imaju skroman cilj da čitaoce upoznaju sa teorijskim osnovama razumevanja prirodnih katastrofa, kao i njihovom vremenskom i geoprostornom distribucijom. Prvenstveno je namenjen studentima Fakulteta bezbednosti, kao i studentima drugih srodnih fakulteta, ali kao autori uvereni smo da bi mogao da izazove interesovanje stručne i šire javnosti koja je direktno ili indirektno upoznata sa fenomen prirodnih katastrofa. Ova stranica je takođe prilika da se zahvalimo Fakultetu bezbednosti - Skoplje koji je u okviru izdavačke delatnosti bezrezervno podržao objavljivanje ovog teksta. Takođe se zahvaljujemo recenzentima, prof. Dr Jove Talevski sa Pedagoškog fakulteta u Bitolju, prof. Dr Marina Mališ - Sazdovska sa Fakulteta bezbednosti - Skoplje, kao i prof. Dr Jasmini Gačić sa Fakulteta bezbednosti u Beogradu na podršci, razumevanju i motivaciji da ovaj tekst vide na svetlom danu. Natural disasters have always instilled fear in humans, and throughout history, they have attributed various meanings to them while simultaneously attempting to find different reasons for their occurrence, or to explain them. The fact that the number of natural disasters has significantly increased in recent decades, resulting in an increasing number of victims and particularly heightened material damage, is attributed to both the number of disasters on one hand, and the process of ultra-rapid anthropogenic activity by humans on the other hand. Before you is a manuscript that is the result of collaborative work by authors who have the modest goal of acquainting readers with the theoretical foundations of understanding natural disasters, as well as their temporal and geographical distribution. It is primarily intended for students of the Faculty of Security, as well as students of other related faculties, but as authors, we are convinced that it could also spark the interest of the professional and broader public who are directly or indirectly acquainted with the phenomenon of natural disasters. This platform also serves as an opportunity to thank the Faculty of Security - Skopje, which, as part of its publishing activities, wholeheartedly supported the publication of this text. We also thank the reviewers, Prof. Dr. Jove Talevski from the Pedagogical Faculty in Bitola, Prof. Dr. Marina Mališ-Sazdovska from the Faculty of Security - Skopje, as well as Prof. Dr. Jasmina Gačić from the Faculty of Security in Belgrade for their support, understanding, and motivation to see this text come to light. Analyzing the numbers, trends, consequences, temporal, and geographical distribution of earthquakes from 1900 to 2013, it can be highlighted that in terms of the total number of earthquakes by continent during the aforementioned period, most earthquakes occurred in Asia, followed by America, Europe, Africa, and the least in Oceania. Looking at the continents, Asia had the most fatalities, while Oceania had the fewest. Asia also had the highest number of injuries, affected individuals, and those left homeless, while Oceania had the least. However, the reported earthquake numbers by continent do not correspond to the magnitude of consequences. In fact, in Asia, compared to the total number of earthquakes, the consequences are greater (e.g., more fatalities) compared to America, Europe, and Oceania. This can partly be explained by population density, levels of attentiveness to urban construction measures, geological predispositions, and other factors specific to the Asian geographical space. Regarding countries, most earthquakes occurred in China (277), followed by Indonesia (233), Iran (206), Turkey (152), and Japan (115). China also leads in terms of fatalities (1,751,161), followed by Haiti, Indonesia, Japan, and the USA. Out of the total number of earthquakes (2475), the highest number occurred between 2000 and 2013 (27.94%), and the fewest between 1910 and 1920 (1.98%). Similarly, out of the total fatalities (5,128,349), the highest number occurred between 2000 and 2013 (27.76%), and the fewest between 1950 and 1960 (1.46%). The obtained and processed data indicate the potential threat to national geographic spaces, considering that Europe ranks third in potential earthquake hazard indicators. Furthermore, the results suggest increased frequency and greater human and material losses in the last 13 years compared to similar time frames within the observed period. Thus, a continuation of such a trend can be expected in the future. Earthquakes that occurred in the geographical space of Serbia in the last 30 years, to some extent, confirm the aforementioned claim. Analyzing the numbers, trends, consequences, temporal, and geographical distribution of volcanic eruptions from 1900 to 2013, it can be highlighted that after earthquakes, volcanic eruptions are the most common geophysical hazard. Between 1900 and 2013, a total of 452 volcanic eruptions occurred, resulting in 192,624 fatalities, 23,238 injuries, and affecting 9,789,114 people. Additionally, 751,580 people were left homeless as a result of volcanic eruptions. Considering their potential occurrence locations, it's not surprising that most volcanic eruptions occurred in Asia, and the least in Europe. However, the most fatalities occurred in America, while Asia had the most injuries. Of course, Europe had the fewest fatalities, injuries, and affected individuals. Generally, the reported numbers of volcanic eruptions by continent correspond to the magnitude of consequences. Looking at volcanic eruptions at the country level, most occurred in Argentina, followed by Cameroon, Cape Verde, Chile, and Colombia. In terms of fatalities, Martinique, Colombia, Indonesia, and Guatemala topped the list. The fact that the number of volcanic eruptions does not directly correlate with the number of fatalities at the national level speaks to numerous factors influencing these two variables (structural and non-structural measures for the protection of people, property, and the environment). Until 1970, volcanic eruptions occurred within a certain average (5%), but after that period, there was a significant increase, reaching its peak (30.09%) between 2000 and 2013. This suggests a potential continuation of this trend in the future. Naturally, the fewest eruptions occurred between 1920 and 1940. It's particularly interesting to note that the most fatalities occurred between 1900 and 1910 (89,874), while the fewest occurred between 2000 and 2013 (1,126). Analyzing the spatial distribution of fires by continents, it can be concluded that the largest number of fires have affected the geographical area of America (35%), while Africa ranks last, at 7%. Statistical data also show that the consequences of forest fires vary. For example, the highest number of fatalities occurred in America (42.44%), while in Africa, it was the lowest (14.13%). However, the highest number of injuries was in Europe (37.07%), with the lowest in America (12.78%). Asia had the most affected individuals (55.30%), while Africa had the fewest (0.16%). The highest number of people left homeless was in Asia (48.60%), and the fewest in Europe (4.76%). Previous examinations have shown that from 1900 to 2013, the most forest fires occurred in countries with large geographical areas - the USA, China, Australia, Russia, and Canada. Analyzing the numbers, trends, consequences, as well as the temporal and spatial distribution of droughts from 1900 to 2013, leads to various conclusions. Regarding the geographical distribution of droughts, it can be concluded that the most droughts occurred in Africa, and the fewest in Oceania. The most fatalities, injuries, and affected individuals were in Asia, while the fewest were in Oceania. The most droughts occurred in China, Brazil, Ethiopia, India, and Kenya. Regarding the temporal distribution, the most droughts occurred in 1999, 1983, followed by 2000, 1980, and 2002. The highest number of fatalities as a result of droughts was during 1928, then 1943, 1965, 1942, and 1900. The most affected individuals as a result of droughts were during 1987, 1972, 1982, and 1999. The highest estimated material damage occurred in 2012, then 1994, 1999, 2011, and 2002. From 1900 to 2013, there were 25,552 natural disasters. These resulted in 65,009,766 deaths, 15,221,227 injuries, 13,566,647,548 affected individuals, and 337,112,287 people left homeless. The total material damage amounted to 5,066,645,713 US dollars. Floods were the most common type of disaster, while landslides and avalanches were the least common. The most fatalities occurred as a result of droughts, injuries due to extreme temperatures, and affected individuals due to floods. The highest total material damage resulted from storms. The fewest fatalities occurred as a result of insect infections, injuries from forest fires, affected individuals from landslides and avalanches, people left homeless due to epidemics, insect infections, and landslides and avalanches, and material damage caused by epidemics, insect infections, and landslides and avalanches. Most natural disasters occurred in Asia, and the fewest in Oceania. This distribution correlates with the distribution of consequences by continent. Regarding temporal intervals, the most natural disasters occurred from 2000 to 2013, while the fewest occurred from 1910 to 1920. Among them, the most fatalities occurred from 1900 to 1910, and the fewest from 1990 to 2000. The most injuries occurred from 2000 to 2013, and the fewest from 1900 to 1910. The most affected individuals were from 2000 to 2013, and the fewest from 1900 to 1910. From 2000 to 2013, there were the most people left homeless, and the fewest from 1940 to 1950. Referenca - Ivanov, A., & Cvetković, V. (2016). Prirodne katastrofe - geoprostorna i vremenska distribucija. Skopje: Fakultet za bezbednost.

PRIPREMLJENOST ZA REAGOVANJE NA RIZIKA OD PRIRODNIH KATASTROFA (PREPAREDNESS FOR RESPONDING TO NATURAL DISASTER RISKS)

Predgovor - Polazeći od nemogućnosti sprečavanja nastanka prirodnih katastrofa, ljudima, nažalost, jedino preostaje da unapređuju svoju pripremljenost kako bi mogli da ublaže posledice takvih događaja. Rukovodeći se značajem pripremnih aktivnosti za izbegavanje najgorih mogućih scenarija prirodnih katastrofa, autori su korišćenjem kvantitativne istraživačke tradicije na jedan sistematičan način ispitali stavove građana o pripremljenosti državnih organa, lokalnih zajednica i samih građana za reagovanje u takvim situacijama. U prvom delu monografije ispitani su uticaji demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških faktora na individualnu pripremljenost za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. Sudeći prema dobijenim rezultatima, od ukupno 2471 ispitanika samo 26,6% je istaklo da je spremno za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu. Po istom principu, autori su ispitali uticaje spomenutih faktora i na pripremljenost lokalnih zajednica za reagovanje. Utvrđeno je da samo 25,5% ističe da je njihova lokalna zajednica pripremljena za reagovanje. Sa druge strane, rezultati pokazuju da je samo jedna trećina odnosno 31,6% ispitanika naglasilo da je država Srbija spremna za reagovanje. Utvrđeno je i da 38,6% ispitanika misli da će im preduzimanje mera pripremljenosti pomoći da se izbore sa posledicama prirodne katastrofe. Na kraju, autori polazeći od dugogošnjeg iskustva, daju konkretne preporuke za unapređenje bezbednosti građana za svaku od vrsta prirodnih katastrofa. Apstrakt - U monografiji se ističe da, polazeći od nemogućnosti sprečavanja nastanka prirodnih katastrofa, ljudima jedino preostaje da unapređuju svoju pripremljenost kako bi mogli da ublaže posledice takvih događaja. Rukovodeći se značajem pripremnih aktivnosti za izbegavanje najgorih mogućih scenarija prirodnih katastrofa, autori su korišćenjem kvantitativne istraživačke tradicije na sistematičan način ispitali stavove građana o pripremljenosti državnih organa, lokalnih zajednica i samih građana za reagovanje u takvim situacijama. U prvom delu monografije ispitani su uticaji demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških faktora na individualnu pripremljenost za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. Sudeći prema dobijenim rezultatima, od ukupno 2.471 ispitanika samo je 26,6% istaklo da je spremno za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu. Po istom principu, autori su ispitali uticaje spomenutih faktora i na pripremljenost lokalnih zajednica za reagovanje. Utvrđeno je da samo 25,5% ističe da je njihova lokalna zajednica pripremljena za reagovanje. Sa druge strane, rezultati pokazuju da je samo jedna trećina odnosno 31,6% ispitanika naglasilo da je država Srbija spremna za reagovanje. Utvrđeno je i da 38,6% ispitanika misli da će im preduzimanje mera pripremljenosti pomoći da se izbore sa posledicama prirodne katastrofe. Na kraju, autori, polazeći od dugogošnjeg iskustva, daju konkretne preporuke za unapređenje bezbednosti građana za svaku od vrsta prirodnih katastrofa. Based on the inability to prevent natural disasters, individuals are left with the task of improving their preparedness to mitigate the consequences of such events. Drawing on the significance of preparatory activities to avoid the worst possible scenarios of natural disasters, the authors systematically investigated citizens' attitudes toward the preparedness of government bodies, local communities, and individuals for responding to such situations using a quantitative research approach. In the first part of the monograph, the influences of demographic, socio-economic, and psychological factors on individual preparedness for responding to natural disasters were examined. According to the results obtained from a total of 2471 respondents, only 26.6% indicated readiness to respond to a natural disaster. Similarly, the authors explored the influences of these factors on the preparedness of local communities for response, finding that only 25.5% stated that their local community was prepared. Conversely, the results indicated that only one-third, specifically 31.6% of respondents, emphasized that Serbia is prepared for response. Furthermore, it was found that 38.6% of respondents believe that taking preparatory measures will help them cope with the consequences of a natural disaster. Finally, drawing on extensive experience, the authors provide concrete recommendations for enhancing citizen safety for each type of natural disaster. Abstract - The monograph emphasizes that, given the impossibility of preventing natural disasters, individuals are left with the task of improving their preparedness to mitigate the consequences of such events. Guided by the significance of preparatory activities to avoid the worst possible scenarios of natural disasters, the authors systematically investigated citizens' attitudes toward the preparedness of government bodies, local communities, and individuals for responding to such situations using a quantitative research approach. In the first part of the monograph, the influences of demographic, socio-economic, and psychological factors on individual preparedness for responding to natural disasters were examined. According to the results obtained from a total of 2,471 respondents, only 26.6% indicated readiness to respond to a natural disaster. Similarly, the authors explored the influences of these factors on the preparedness of local communities for response, finding that only 25.5% stated that their local community was prepared. Conversely, the results indicated that only one-third, specifically 31.6% of respondents, emphasized that Serbia is prepared for response. Furthermore, it was found that 38.6% of respondents believe that taking preparatory measures will help them cope with the consequences of a natural disaster. Finally, drawing on extensive experience, the authors provide concrete recommendations for enhancing citizen safety for each type of natural disaster. Referenca - Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2017). Pripremljenost za reagovanje na rizike od prirodnih katastrofa. Beograd: Zadužbina Andrejević.

POLICIJA I PRIRODNE KATASTROFE (Police and Natural Disasters)

Prirodne katastrofe izazvane poplavom, bez obzira na današnji stepen naučne razvijenosti nemoguće je sprečiti u potpunosti. One predstavlјaju posledice prirodnih zakona na koje čovek nema odlučujući i direktan uticaj. Ono što je moguće preduzeti, u pojedinim slučajevima, odnosi se na aktivnosti čiji je cilј prevencija prirodnih katastrofa ili umanjenje nastalih štetnih posledica. S obzirom na učestalost i posledice poplava na teritoriji Republike Srbije, pogotovu u 2005. i 2014. godini, takvo pitanje zasigurno dobija na značaju. Monografija je nastala kao rezultat kvantitativnog istraživanja percepcije građana o policiji u prirodnim katastrofama u kojem je učestvovalo 2500 građana iz devetnaest opština u Srbiji. Sistematizovana je u četiri poglavlјa, od kojih se prvo odnosi na teorijska pitanja oko konceptualizacije prirodnih katastrofa sa posebnim osvrtom na mesto i ulogu policije u prirodnim katastrofama. Preostala tri poglavlјa predstavlјaju rezultat kvantitativnog istraživanja u kojem se prikazuju rezultati deskriptivnih i inferencijalnih statističkih analiza. Konkretno, u drugom poglavlјu iznose se rezultati ispitivanja percepcije građana o spremnosti policije za reagovanje. Rezultati ispitivanja očekivanja pomoći od policije dati su u drugom poglavlјu. Na kraju, u trećem poglavlјu dati su rezultati ispitivanja informisanosti građana o nadležnostima policije u prirodnim katastrofama. Građanima koji su učestvovali u istraživanju srdačno se zahvalјujem na odvojenom vremenu i strplјenju prilikom sprovođenja anketnog ispitivanja. Za kvalitet monografije posebnu zahvalnost dugujem recenzentima prof. dr Stanimiru Kostadinovu, prof. dr Aleksandri Ljuštini, docent dr Aleksandru Ivanovu i prof. dr Bobanu Milojkoviću koji je dao ocenu naučnog dela. U monografiji su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja percepcije građana o policiji u prirodnim katastrofama (u dalјem tekstu prirodne katastrofe) u Republici Srbiji. Predmet monografije se odnosi na ispitivanje percepcije građana o spremnosti policije za reagovanje, informisanost građana o nadležnostima policije i očekivanje pomoći od policije u prirodnim katastrofama. Pri tome, ispituju se uticaji demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških karakteristika građana na percepciju spremnosti, informisanost i očekivanje pomoći od policije u prirodnim katastrofama. Polazeći od opština u Srbiji u kojima postoji rizik od poplava metodom slučajnog uzorka odabrano je devetnaest u kojima je anketirano 2500 građana. U odabranim opštinama istraživanje je realizovano u delovima koji su u prošlosti bili najugroženiji od poplava. U anketnom ispitivanju bila je primenjena strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Prikuplјeni su podaci o demografskim, socio-ekonomskim i psihološkim karakteristikama građana i njihovoj percepciji o policiji u prirodnim katastrofama. Originalnost sprovedenog istraživanja ogleda se u činjenici da u Srbiji nije sprovedeno istraživanje kojim bi se ispitala percepcija građana o policiji u prirodnim katastrofama. Imajući u vidu da se istraživanje bazira na područje Srbije, zaklјučci se mogu generalizovati na celokupnu populaciju stanovništva. Rezultati istraživanja dati u monografiji ukazuju na koji način ispitanici ocenjuju spremnost policije za reagovanje, koliko su informisani o nadležnostima, i u kojoj meri očekuju pomoć od policije u prirodnim katastrofama. Monografija ne pruža odgovore na sva aktuelna pitanja o policiji u prirodnim katastrofama, ali može doprineti stvaranju potpunije slike o njenim obavezama prema građanima u takvim situacijama. Dakle, uprkos ogromnim naporima da se sveobuhvatnim pristupom rasvetli većina nedoumica, veliki broj istraživačkih pitanja ostaje da se aktuelizuje. Rezultati istraživanja mogu doprineti unapređenju rada policije u prirodnim katastrofama. Pri tome, oni se mogu iskoristiti i prilikom kreiranja strategija za unapređenje nivoa spremnosti policije za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. Svakako, prava riznici podataka izneta u naučnoj monografiji predstavlјa repernu tačku za sva buduća istraživanja o mestu i ulozi policije u prirodnim katastrofama. Klјučne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, policija, građani, efikasnost, očekivanje pomoći, informisanost, demografski faktori, socio-ekonomski faktori, psihološki faktori. Posveta Monografiju posvećujem policijskim službenicima Republike Srbije koji su dali značajan doprinos u spašavanju života i materijalnih dobara na područjima pogođenim poplavama 2014. godine i uz to pokazali visok nivo humanosti, požrtvovanosti i solidarnosti sa ugroženim građanima. Natural disasters caused by floods, regardless of today's level of scientific advancement, cannot be completely prevented. They represent the consequences of natural laws over which humans have no decisive and direct influence. What can be done, in some cases, relates to activities aimed at preventing natural disasters or reducing the harmful consequences that occur. Given the frequency and consequences of floods in the territory of the Republic of Serbia, especially in 2005 and 2014, such issues certainly gain significance. The monograph emerged as a result of quantitative research on citizens' perceptions of the police in natural disasters, involving 2,500 citizens from nineteen municipalities in Serbia. It is organized into four chapters, the first of which deals with theoretical issues regarding the conceptualization of natural disasters with a special focus on the role and place of the police in such situations. The remaining three chapters present the results of quantitative research, showcasing descriptive and inferential statistical analyses. Specifically, the second chapter presents the results of the examination of citizens' perceptions of police readiness to respond. The expectations of assistance from the police are outlined in the same chapter. Finally, the third chapter presents the results of the examination of citizens' awareness of the police's jurisdiction in natural disasters. I extend warm thanks to the citizens who participated in the research for their time and patience during the survey. For the quality of the monograph, special thanks are due to the reviewers: Prof. Dr. Stanimir Kostadinov, Prof. Dr. Aleksandra Ljuština, Associate Professor Dr. Aleksandar Ivanov, and Prof. Dr. Boban Milojković, who evaluated the scientific work. The monograph presents the results of quantitative research on citizens' perceptions of the police in natural disasters in the Republic of Serbia. The subject of the monograph pertains to examining citizens' perceptions of police readiness to respond, citizens' awareness of police jurisdiction, and citizens' expectations of assistance from the police in natural disasters. In doing so, the influences of demographic, socio-economic, and psychological characteristics of citizens on their perceptions of readiness, awareness, and expectations of police assistance in natural disasters are examined. Starting from the municipalities in Serbia at risk of flooding, nineteen were selected using the random sampling method, where 2,500 citizens were surveyed. The research in selected municipalities was conducted in areas historically most affected by floods. The survey methodology employed household surveys using a multistage random sampling approach. Data on demographic, socio-economic, and psychological characteristics of citizens and their perceptions of the police in natural disasters were collected. The originality of the conducted research lies in the fact that no research has been conducted in Serbia to examine citizens' perceptions of the police in natural disasters. Considering that the research is based on the territory of Serbia, the conclusions can be generalized to the entire population. The research results presented in the monograph indicate how respondents assess police readiness to respond, how informed they are about police jurisdiction, and to what extent they expect assistance from the police in natural disasters. While the monograph does not provide answers to all current questions about the police in natural disasters, it can contribute to creating a more complete picture of its obligations towards citizens in such situations. Therefore, despite tremendous efforts to shed light on the majority of uncertainties through a comprehensive approach, a large number of research questions remain to be addressed. The research results can contribute to improving police work in natural disasters. They can also be used in creating strategies to enhance the level of police readiness to respond to natural disasters. Undoubtedly, the rich data presented in the scientific monograph serves as a reference point for all future research on the place and role of the police in natural disasters. Keywords: security, natural disasters, police, citizens, effectiveness, expectation of assistance, awareness, demographic factors, socio-economic factors, psychological factors. Dedication: I dedicate this monograph to the police officers of the Republic of Serbia who made a significant contribution to saving lives and property in areas affected by the floods of 2014, demonstrating a high level of humanity, dedication, and solidarity with the affected citizens. Referenca - Cvetković, V. (2016). Policija i prirodne katastrofe. Beograd: Zadužbina Andrejević.

PERCEPCIJA RIZIKA OD VANREDNIH SITUACIJA (PERCEPTION OF EMERGENCY SITUATION RISK)

Monografija predstavlјa rezultat kvantitativnog istraživanja obaveštenosti građana o prirodnim vanrednim situacijama izazvanim poplavama (u dalјem tekstu: vanredne situacije). Predmet rada ogleda se u ispitivanju stanovništva po pitanju upoznatosti sa prirodnim vanrednim situacijama, percepcije verovatnoće njihovog nastanka, svesti o ugroženosti i važnosti osiguranja domaćinstava od posledica poplava. Pored toga, au-tori proveravaju i uticaj demografskih (pol, godine, nivo obrazovanja, uspeh u srednjoj školi), socioekonomskih (zaposlenost, visina prihoda, bračni status i udalјenost kuće/stana od reke) i psiholoških faktora (strah, prethodno iskustvo, motivisanost i nivo religioznosti) na obaveštenost ispitanika i njihovu percepciju rizika od prirodnih vanrednih situacija uzrokovanih poplavama. Za potrebe realizacije istraživanja, statističkom metodom i metodom iskustvene generalizacije, stratifikovane su lokalne zajednice u Republici Srbiji sa visokim i niskim rizikom od nastanka poplava. Na taj način dobijen je stratum odnosno populacija, koju su činili svi punoletni stanovnici lokalnih zajednica gde se dogodila poplava ili zajednica u kojima postoji rizik da se ona dogodi. Iz tako dobijenog stratuma, metodom slučajnog uzorkovanja, odabrano je 19 od ukupno 150 lokalnih zajednica iz svih regiona Srbije u kojima je indikovana ugroženost ili potencijalna ugroženost od poplava: Obrenovac, Šabac, Kruševac, Kragujevac, Sremska Mitrovica, Priboj, Batočina, Svilajnac, Lapovo, Paraćin, Smederevska Palanka, Jaša Tomić, Loznica, Bajina Bašta, Smederevo, Novi Sad, Kralјevo, Rekovac i Užice. Veličina uzorka je usklađivana sa geografskom i demografskom veličinom same zajednice. Rezultati istraživanja su pokazali da su o rizicima od nastanka poplava najobavešteniji ispitanici muškog pola starosti 18–28 godina, sa srednjim (četvorogodišnjim) obrazovanjem i vrlo dobrim uspehom, koji su u braku i zaposleni sa primanjima do 50.000 dinara, čije je domaćinstvo do dva kilometra udalјeno od reke, ispitanici u strahu od rizika od poplava, bez prethodnog iskustva i apsolutno motivisani, koji su niti religiozni niti nereligiozni. Zatim, verovatnoću nastanka poplava najbolјe percipiraju muškarci uzrasta 18–28 godina, sa vrlo dobrim uspehom u srednjoj (četvorogodišnjoj) školi, ispitanici u radnom odnosu sa prihodima do 50.000 dinara, venčani, sa domaćinstvom do dva kilometra udalјenim od reke, koji se plaše poplava i nemaju prethodno iskustvo u takvim situacijama, a neutralni su po pitanju motivisanosti (niti motivisani niti nemotivisani) i religioznosti (niti religiozni niti nereligiozni). Ugroženost od nailaska poplavnog talasa najbolјe poimaju muški ispitanici životne dobi 18‒28 godina, koji imaju srednje (četvorogodišnje) obrazovanje i postigli su vrlo dobar uspeh, zaposleni sa zaradom do 50.000 dinara, oženjeni, sa prebivalištem do dva kilometra udalјenim od reke, koji se boje, ali nisu imali prethodno iskustvo sa poplavama, i čiji je stav neutralan kada je reč o motivisanosti i religioznosti. Na kraju, osiguranje kuće/stana od posledica vanrednih situacija najčešće plaćaju muški ispitanici starosti 29–38 godina, sa srednjim (četvorogodišnjim) obrazovanjem i odličnim uspehom, ispitanici u radnom odnosu i sa platom do 50.000 dinara, koji su venčani i žive do dva kilometra daleko od reke, plaše se nastanka poplave, nisu imali prethodnog iskustva sa njom i koji imaju neutralno mišlјenje o motivisanosti (niti motivisani niti nemotivisani) i religioznosti (niti religiozni niti nereligiozni). The monograph represents the result of a quantitative study of citizens' awareness of natural emergencies caused by floods (hereinafter referred to as emergencies). The subject of the study lies in examining the population's familiarity with natural emergencies, perception of the likelihood of their occurrence, awareness of vulnerability, and the importance of household flood insurance. Additionally, the authors investigate the influence of demographic (gender, age, level of education, high school performance), socioeconomic (employment, income level, marital status, distance of residence from the river), and psychological factors (fear, previous experience, motivation, level of religiosity) on the respondents' awareness and perception of the risk of natural emergencies caused by floods. For the purpose of conducting the research, local communities in the Republic of Serbia with high and low flood risk were stratified using statistical and experiential generalization methods. This resulted in a stratum or population consisting of all adult residents of local communities where floods occurred or where there is a risk of their occurrence. From this stratum, 19 out of a total of 150 local communities from all regions of Serbia, indicated as vulnerable or potentially vulnerable to floods, were selected using random sampling: Obrenovac, Šabac, Kruševac, Kragujevac, Sremska Mitrovica, Priboj, Batočina, Svilajnac, Lapovo, Paraćin, Smederevska Palanka, Jaša Tomić, Loznica, Bajina Bašta, Smederevo, Novi Sad, Kralјevo, Rekovac, and Užice. The sample size was adjusted according to the geographical and demographic size of the community. The research results showed that respondents with the most knowledge about flood risks were male, aged 18-28, with medium (four-year) education and very good performance, married and employed with income up to 50,000 dinars, residing within two kilometers from the river, fearing flood risks, without previous experience, and highly motivated individuals with neutral religiosity. Furthermore, the probability of flood occurrence is best perceived by males aged 18-28, with very good performance in secondary (four-year) school, employed with income up to 50,000 dinars, married, residing within two kilometers from the river, fearing floods without prior experience, and neutral in terms of motivation and religiosity. Vulnerability to flooding is best understood by male respondents aged 18-28, with medium (four-year) education and very good performance, employed with income up to 50,000 dinars, married, residing within two kilometers from the river, fearing floods but without previous experience, and neutral in terms of motivation and religiosity. Finally, home insurance against the effects of emergencies is most commonly paid by male respondents aged 29-38, with medium (four-year) education and excellent performance, employed with income up to 50,000 dinars, married, residing within two kilometers from the river, fearing flood occurrence without previous experience, and neutral in terms of motivation and religiosity. Referenca: Cvetković, V., Bošković, D., Janković, B., & Andrić, S. (2019). Percepcija rizika od vanrednih situacija. Beograd: Kriminalističko-policijski univerzitet.

EVAKUACIJA U PRIRODNIM KATASTROFAMA (Evacuation in natural disasters)

Monografija predstavlјa rezultat kvantitativnog istraživanja o evakuaciji građana u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavama (u dalјem tekstu: prirodne katastrofe). Predmet rada ogleda se u ispitivanju percepcije građana o pristanku na evakuaciju i načinu njenog sprovođenja, sa posebnim osvrtom na poznavanje pravaca kretanja (puteva) i obližnjih zbornih mesta, mesta prihvata i rejona razmeštaja za potrebe evakuacije. Pored toga, autori ispituju i uticaj demografskih (pol, godine, nivo obrazovanja, uspeh u srednjoj školi i roditelјstvo), socio-ekonomskih (zaposlenost, visina prihoda, bračni status, regulisanost vojne obaveze i udalјenost kuće/stana od reke) i psiholoških karakteristika (strah, prethodno iskustvo, percepcija rizika, motivisanost i nivo religioznosti) građana na spomenute dimenzije evakuacije u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavama. Za potrebe realizacije istraživanja, statističkom metodom i metodom iskustvene generalizacije stratifikovane su lokalne zajednice u Republici Srbiji sa visokim i niskim rizikom nastanka poplava. Na taj način dobijen je stratum, odnosno populacija, koji su činili svi punoletni stanovnici lokalnih zajednica u kojima se dogodila poplava, ili postoji rizik da se dogodi. Iz tako dobijenog stratuma, metodom slučajnog uzorka odabrano je njih 19 od ukupno 154 u kojima je indikovana ugroženost ili potencijalna ugroženost od poplava. Istraživanjem su obuhvaćene sledeće lokalne zajednice: Obrenovac, Šabac, Kruševac, Kragujevac, Sremska Mitrovica, Priboj, Batočina, Svilajnac, Lapovo, Paraćin, Smederevska Palanka, Jaša Tomić, Loznica, Bajina Bašta, Smederevo, Novi Sad, Kralјevo, Rekovac i Užice. Za realizaciju anketnog ispitivanja odabrana je strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Tom prilikom prikuplјeni su podaci o različitim dimenzijama evakuacije, kao i o demografskim, socio-ekonomskim i psihološkim karakteristikama građana. Sređeni, klasifikovani i obrađeni podaci analizirani su korišćenjem više tehnika: određivanje učestalosti određenog odgovora u ukupnoj masi odgovora ispitanika, određivanje procenta učešća određenog odgovora u ukupnoj masi odgovora i Hi-kvadrat testom nezavisnosti (χ2) utvrđivale su se statistički značajne razlike između grupa koje su se poredile, ili su se utvrđivale statistički značajne veze između pojedinih odgovora. Pored toga, korišćena je jednofaktorska analiza varijanse i T-test nezavisnih uzoraka. S obzirom na iskustva Republike Srbije u pogledu poteškoća tokom sprovođenja evakuacije građana iz poplavlјenih područja, može se reći da monografija ima originalan naučni i društveni značaj. Uzimajući u obzir kvantitet i kvalitet strukture uzorka, rezultati predstavlјeni u ovom radu mogu se generalizovati na celokupnu populaciju stanovništva. Sa druge strane, ostavlјajući po strani uloženi trud i obimne rezultate iznete u monografiji, veliki broj istraživačkih pitanja iz oblasti evakuacije ostaje da se problematizuje. Rezultati istraživanja mogu imati ozbilјne implikacije na unapređenje sprovođenja evakuacije u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavama. Kao takvi, svakako će predstavlјati i osnovni korpus saznanja u budućim istraživanjima o evakuaciji građana u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavama. Klјučne reči: 1. bezbednost 2. prirodne katastrofe 3. građani 4. evakuacija 5. pristanak na evakuaciju 6. poznavanje pravaca kretanja 7. poznavanje zbornih mesta 8. demografski faktori 9. socio-ekonomski faktori 10. psihološki faktori. The monograph represents the result of a quantitative research study on citizen evacuation in natural disasters caused by floods (hereinafter referred to as natural disasters). The focus of the research is on examining citizens' perceptions regarding consent to evacuation and the manner of its implementation, with a specific emphasis on knowledge of evacuation routes and nearby assembly points, reception areas, and deployment areas for evacuation purposes. Additionally, the authors investigate the influence of demographic (gender, age, education level, high school achievement, and parenthood), socio-economic (employment status, income level, marital status, military service status, and distance of residence from the river), and psychological characteristics (fear, previous experience, risk perception, motivation, and religiosity) of citizens on the aforementioned dimensions of evacuation in natural disasters caused by floods. For the purpose of the research, local communities in the Republic of Serbia with high and low flood risk were stratified using statistical methods and the method of experiential generalization. Consequently, a stratum, i.e., population, consisting of all adult residents of local communities where floods occurred or where there is a risk of their occurrence, was obtained. From this stratum, a random sample of 19 communities out of a total of 154 with indicated vulnerability or potential vulnerability to floods was selected. The research covered the following local communities: Obrenovac, Šabac, Kruševac, Kragujevac, Sremska Mitrovica, Priboj, Batočina, Svilajnac, Lapovo, Paraćin, Smederevska Palanka, Jaša Tomić, Loznica, Bajina Bašta, Smederevo, Novi Sad, Kraljevo, Rekovac, and Užice. A household survey strategy was chosen for the implementation of the survey, employing a multi-stage random sampling method. During this process, data on various dimensions of evacuation, as well as on demographic, socio-economic, and psychological characteristics of citizens, were collected. The collected, sorted, classified, and processed data were analyzed using various techniques, including determining the frequency of a particular response in the total response mass of respondents, determining the percentage of participation of a particular response in the total response mass, and using the Chi-square test of independence (χ2) to establish statistically significant differences between compared groups or to determine statistically significant relationships between individual responses. Additionally, one-way analysis of variance and independent samples T-test were utilized. Considering the experiences of the Republic of Serbia regarding difficulties in implementing citizen evacuation from flooded areas, it can be said that the monograph has both scientific and social significance. Taking into account the quantity and quality of the sample structure, the results presented in this paper can be generalized to the entire population. On the other hand, notwithstanding the effort invested and the extensive results presented in the monograph, a large number of research questions regarding evacuation remain to be addressed. The research findings can have significant implications for improving the implementation of evacuation in natural disasters caused by floods. As such, they will undoubtedly constitute the fundamental body of knowledge in future research on citizen evacuation in natural disasters caused by floods. Keywords: 1. safety 2. natural disasters 3. citizens 4. evacuation 5. consent to evacuation 6. knowledge of evacuation routes 7. knowledge of assembly points 8. demographic factors 9. socio-economic factors 10. psychological factors. Referenca: Cvetković, V., & Gačić, J. (2016). Evakuacija u prirodnim katastrofama. Beograd: Zadužbina Andrejević.

INTERVENTNO-SPASILAČKE SLUŽBE U VANREDNIM SITUACIJAMA (FIRST RESPONDERS IN EMERGENCY)

Monografija je rezultat teorijskog istraživanja strane i domaće literature o vanrednim situacijama izazvanim zloupotrebom opasnih materija u terorističke svrhe. Nastala je u nastojanju da se odgovori na brojna pitanja na koja je (ne) namerno bačen veo mističnosti, a koja su istovremeno predmet višestandardnog tretiranja terorizma, što stvara brojne probleme bezbednosti čoveka, društava, država i međunarodne zajednice. U tom smislu, nastojao sam da za rešavanje savremenih bezbednosnih problema ponudim savremene odgovore. Koliko sam i u tome uspeo, proceniće čitaoci. Stoga s nestrplјenjem očekujem primedbe i savete kojima ću unaprediti buduća izdanja knjige. Ovom prilikom zahvalјujem svojim profesorima dr Draganu Mlađanu i dr Saši Mijalkoviću na nesebičnoj stručnoj podršci i dobronamernim kritikama.fija je rezultat teorijskog istraživanja strane i domaće literature o vanrednim situacijama izazvanim zloupotrebom opasnih materija u terorističke svrhe. Nastala je u nastojanju da se odgovori na brojna pitanja na koja je (ne) namerno bačen veo mističnosti, a koja su istovremeno predmet višestandardnog tretiranja terorizma, što stvara brojne probleme bezbednosti čoveka, društava, država i međunarodne zajednice. U tom smislu, nastojao sam da za rešavanje savremenih bezbednosnih problema ponudim savremene odgovore. Koliko sam i u tome uspeo, proceniće čitaoci. Stoga s nestrplјenjem očekujem primedbe i savete kojima ću unaprediti buduća izdanja knjige. Ovom prilikom zahvalјujem svojim profesorima dr Draganu Mlađanu i dr Saši Mijalkoviću na nesebičnoj stručnoj podršci i dobronamernim kritikama. U monografiji su analizirani zadaci interventno-spasilačkih službi (policije, vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica i službi hitne medicinske pomoći) u vanrednim situacijama koje su izazvane zloupotrebom opasnih materija. Posebna pažnja je posvećena organizaciji rada, tzv. „menadžmentu 8 koraka“, i bezbednosti pripadnika ovih službi. Dakle, reč je o vanrednim situacijama koje, zbog zloupotrebe opasnih materija, uslovlјavaju realizaciju posebnih zadataka od strane jedne ili više interventno-spasilačkih službi. Imajući u vidu to da između zadataka ovih službi nužno mora da postoji jasno razgraničenje poslova sa precizno utvrđenim nadležnostima, u radu je posebna pažnja posvećena analizi njihovih zadataka koji su definisani zakonom. Upravo stoga, posebna pažnja je posvećena zadacima obezbeđivanja i kriminalističke obrade lica mesta koje sprovodi policija, sa posebnim osvrtom na njenu ulogu u koordiniranju ostalih službi bezbednosti. Kada je reč o vatrogascima-spasiocima, akcenat je stavlјen na razmatranje taktike spasavanja povređenih i gašenja požara u opasnom okruženju. Učinjen je osvrt i na službu hitne medicinske pomoći koja mora da prilagodi svoju organizaciju pružanja prve pomoći novonastalim okolnostima. Stoga je posebna pažnja posvećena trijaži, transportovanju i pripremi bolnica za prijem povređenih. Shvatajući značaj i neophodnost efikasne koordinacije rada ovih službi, naglašen je značaj sagledavanja i analize njihovog organizovanja i delovanja na licu mesta terorističkog akta. To je učinjeno iz aspekta (na globalnom Zapadu već duže vreme razvijenog i implementiranog) standarda tzv. „procedure 8 koraka“ (Eight Step Process), koja je prvenstveno namenjena koordiniranju rada u terorističkim vanrednim situacijama. Najzad, ukazuje se i na potencijalne opasnosti po život i zdravlјe pripadnika službi u postupku otklanjanja nastalih posledica, sa posebnim osvrtom na mere zaštite. Klјučne reči: 1. vanredna situacija 2. opasne materije 3. interventno-spasilačke službe 4. standardi „8 koraka“ 5. policija 6. vatrogasno-spasilačke jedinice 7. služba hitne pomoći 8. bezbednost 9. opasno okruženje 10. terorizam. The monograph is the result of theoretical research on foreign and domestic literature on emergencies caused by the misuse of hazardous materials for terrorist purposes. It was created in an effort to answer numerous questions that have intentionally or unintentionally been shrouded in mystery, yet are simultaneously the subject of multi-standard treatment of terrorism, leading to numerous security challenges for individuals, societies, states, and the international community. In this regard, I have endeavored to offer modern answers to contemporary security problems. The extent to which I have succeeded in doing so will be judged by the readers. Therefore, I eagerly await criticisms and advice to improve future editions of the book. On this occasion, I express my gratitude to my professors Dr. Dragan Mlađan and Dr. Saša Mijalković for their selfless expert support and constructive criticisms. The monograph analyzes the tasks of emergency response services (police, fire and rescue units, and emergency medical services) in emergencies caused by the misuse of hazardous materials. Special attention is given to the organization of work, the so-called "8-step management," and the safety of members of these services. Thus, the focus is on emergencies that, due to the misuse of hazardous materials, require the execution of specific tasks by one or more emergency response services. Given that there must be a clear delineation of tasks with precisely defined responsibilities between these services, the analysis pays special attention to their tasks as defined by law. Accordingly, particular emphasis is placed on the tasks of securing and processing the crime scene conducted by the police, with a special focus on its role in coordinating other security services. When it comes to firefighters and rescuers, the emphasis is on considering the tactics of rescuing the injured and extinguishing fires in hazardous environments. An overview is also provided of the emergency medical service, which must adapt its organization of providing first aid to the new circumstances. Therefore, special attention is given to triage, transportation, and hospital preparation for receiving the injured. Recognizing the importance and necessity of effective coordination of the work of these services, the importance of understanding and analyzing their organization and operations at the scene of a terrorist act is emphasized. This is done from the perspective of the globally developed and implemented standard of the so-called "Eight Step Process," primarily aimed at coordinating work in terrorist emergencies. Finally, potential dangers to the lives and health of service members in the process of mitigating the consequences are pointed out, with special emphasis on protective measures. Keywords: 1. emergency situation 2. hazardous materials 3. emergency response services 4. "8-step" standards 5. police 6. fire and rescue units 7. emergency medical services 8. safety 9. hazardous environment 10. terrorism. Referenca - Cvetković, V. (2013). Interventno-spasilačke službe u vanrednim situacijama: Beograd: Zadužbina Andrejević.

UPRAVLJANJE RIZICIMA U KRIZNIM SITUACIJAMA IZAZVANIM KLZIŠTIMA (Managing Risks in Landslide Crisis Situations)

Klizanje delova površinskog sloja Zemljine kore jedan je od najčešćih geodinamičkih procesa. Kao posledica ovog procesa postaju klizišta. I u slučajevima kada su manjeg intenziteta i na manjim površinama klizišta predstavljaju ozbiljan problem skoro u svim delovima sveta, jer su uzrok ekonomskih i socijalnih gubitaka i nanose direktnu i indirektnu štetu privatnim i javnim dobrima. Neposrednu štetu stvaraju u trenutku aktiviranja, oštećenjem objekata i ljudskim gubicima unutar površine ugrožene klizanjem. Posredna šteta se iskazuje kroz duže vremensko razdoblje, smanjenjem vrednosti objekata oštećenih materijalnih dobara klizanjem, gubitkom produktivnosti zbog prekida proizvodnje ili prometa i troškovima sanacije štete. Vrlo često postajemo svesni postojanja klizišta tek kad se aktiviraju i unište sve pred sobom. Pa i tada nova klizišta stvaraju probleme ljudima koji tu žive, a ostali su samo posmatrači koji već sledećeg dana, zbog novih događaja, zaborave šta se desilo sve do sledeće pojave klizišta sa novim štetama pa često i ljudskim žrtvama. Na osnovu poznavanja mehanizma klizanja, klizišta su prirodne pojave. Međutim, priroda samo omogućava uslove za njihovo formiranje, a ključni činilac u njihovom pokretanju je čovek. U stalnoj težnji da upravlja prirodom, prirodnim zakonima i procesima, a u cilju unapređenja životnih uslova i standarda kao i tehnološkog napretka, čovek je sve manje spreman da prihvati dešavanja u prirodi na način kako su se nekad dešavala. Iz tog razloga nastoji da uspostavi kontrolu nad prirodnim pojavama pa i nad kliznim procesima, odnosno klizištima. U pokušaju da spreči nastanak i razvoj klizanja terena, čovek koristi dostignuća nauke i stečena iskustva primenjena kroz sanacione mere. Na žalost čovek svojim greškama izazvanim neznanjem, nehatom, neplanskim razvojem, nekontrolisanom eksploatacijom prirodnih resursa i dr. utiče na pojavu klizišta. Veličina štete nastale klizanjem povećavaju se sa ekonomskim razvojem. O razmerama štete izazvane klizištima, može se objektivno suditi prema podacima iz razvijenih zemalja, gde se vrše objektivna izučavanja uzroka i posledica, način borbe sa klizištima, prognoze razvoja procesa i planiranje štete prilikom izgradnje. Obzirom da su klizišta važan činilac životne sredine, da bi se čovek od njih zaštitio neophodno je pri izučavanju ovakvih terena dobro izučiti sve aspekte zakonitosti njihovog pojavljivanja i njima prilagođavati metodološke i radne postupke. U novije vreme ovakva istraživanja spadaju u oblast ekogeoloških istraživanja i sprovode se u procesu planiranja, projektovanja i građenja objekata. Pri tome treba stalno imati u vidu da je tlo složena prirodna tvorevina, skoro uvek heterogena u pogledu fizičko-mehaničkih svojstava sa procesima koji menjaju svojstva zemljišta tokom vremena. Uvažavanje ovih procesa, njihovog prostornog rasprostranjenje i stepena aktiv- nosti znatno bi se smanjile moguće štete od ovih egzogenih procesa. Autori iskazuju posebnu zahvalnost recenzentima prof. dr Slobodanu Markoviću, prof. dr Slavoljubu Dragićeviću i prof. dr Vladimiru Jakovljeviću koji su svojim stručnim sugestijama u velikoj meri unapredili tekst monografije. Klizišta predstavlјaju najizrazitije erozivne padinske procese koje karakteriše kretanje rastresitog ili stenovitog materijala niz padinu po kliznoj površini pod uticajem gravitacije. Klizišta su uvek rezultat poremećaja ravnoteže (stabilnosti) unutar tla. Kliženje predstavlјa „pokušaj“ tla da se vrati u ravnotežno (stabilno) stanje. Na nastanak klizišta utiču brojni faktori: litološki sastav, nagib topografske površine, nivo podzemnih voda, poremećaj tla, tektonska kretanja, vulkanizam, zemlјotresi , antropogeni faktori. Klizišta mogu da nastanu i na relativno blagim padinama, ali rizik od stvaranja klizišta raste sa povećanjem nagiba terena. Kod nas se klizišta nazivaju i urvine (plazina, ruč, popuzina). Naziv „urvina“ u našu stručnu literaturu uveo je Petar S. Jovanović, odnosno preuzeo je narodni izraz za ovu pojavu koji se koristi u Šumadiji, oblasti sa najvećim razvićem klizišta u Srbiji. Klizišta kao savremeni geološki i geomorfološki proces javlјaju se širom sveta i predstavlјaju globalni problem. Procenjuje se da u svetu na godišnjem nivou od posledica klizanja terena strada na hilјade lјudi, a šteta prelazi više milijardi dolara. Uprkos velikom razvoju nauke i tehnologije, ekonomske i socijalne štete od klizišta neprekidno rastu. Stvaranje značajnih materijalnih vrednosti na Zemlјinoj površini doprinosi i većim gubicima. Klimatske promene u poslednjoj deceniji uticale su da Srbija postane područje koje je u velikoj meri ugroženo ovom pojavom. Velike poplave 2006. i 2014. godine aktivirale su veliki broj klizišta, a štete koje su nastale su ogromne. Dešavanja iz 2014. godine, po ko zna koji put, podsetila su nas na katastrofalne i svestrane posledice ove pojave. Klizišta kao prirodna katastrofa imaju trajni karakter, a posledice se saniraju decenijama. Nemaran i nestručan odnos čoveka prema prirodi i njenim zakonima jedan je od čestih uzroka koji dovode do pojave klizišta: nepravilna i bespravna izgradnja, devastacija šuma, neregulisana korita reka i potoka, divlјe deponije, vodovodna i kanalizaciona mreža, propusti i odvodi ispod puteva i pruga i dr. Čovek je veliki neprijatelј ne samo prirodi već i samom sebi. Prevencija je uvek jeftinija od saniranja posledica. U Srbiji je ugroženo oko 20 000 km2 površine (oko 25%) aktivnim ili pasivnim klizištima. Evidentirano je oko 36 000 klizišta raspoređenih dosta neravnomerno. Najviše ih je po padinama tercijarnih (neogenih) naslaga, u planinskim, brdovitim i blago zatalasanim područjima gde je zastuplјena glinena komponenta. Većina klizišta je stara, reaktivirana radom čoveka, izgradnjom saobraćajne i druge infrastrukture, energetskih objekata i objekata u urbanim prostorima. Prema nekim procenama, u Srbiji je 70–90% poremećaja stabilnosti u poslednjih 40 godina, potpuno ili delimično, izazvano lјudskom delatnošću. Klizišta predstavlјaju ozbilјan problem za privredno, urbanističko i saobraćajno planiranje, izgradnju novih objekata i zaštitu životne sredine. Landsliding of parts of the Earth's surface is one of the most common geodynamic processes. As a result of this process, landslides occur. Even in cases of lower intensity and smaller areas, landslides pose a serious problem in almost all parts of the world, causing economic and social losses and direct and indirect damage to private and public property. Immediate damage occurs at the moment of activation, causing damage to structures and human losses within the affected area. Indirect damage manifests over a longer period, reducing the value of damaged property, loss of productivity due to production or traffic interruptions, and the costs of damage remediation. Often, we only become aware of the existence of landslides when they are activated and wreak havoc. Furthermore, new landslides create problems for people living in the affected areas, while others become mere observers who, due to new events, forget what happened until the next landslide occurrence, often resulting in further damage and human casualties. Based on an understanding of the mechanism of landsliding, landslides are natural phenomena. However, while nature provides conditions for their formation, human activities are the key factor in their initiation. In a constant effort to control nature, natural laws, and processes, aiming to improve living conditions, standards, and technological progress, humans are increasingly unwilling to accept natural events as they once occurred. Therefore, they seek to gain control over natural phenomena, including landsliding. In an attempt to prevent the occurrence and development of landslides, humans use scientific advancements and acquired experiences applied through remediation measures. Unfortunately, human errors caused by ignorance, negligence, unplanned development, uncontrolled exploitation of natural resources, etc., contribute to landslide occurrences. The extent of damage caused by landslides increases with economic development. The scale of damage caused by landslides can be objectively assessed based on data from developed countries, where objective studies of causes and consequences, landslide mitigation strategies, forecasts of process development, and damage planning during construction are conducted. Given that landslides are an important environmental factor, studying such terrains requires examining all aspects of the laws governing their occurrence and adapting methodological and operational procedures accordingly. In recent times, such research falls within the field of eco-geological studies and is conducted in the process of planning, designing, and constructing structures. It is essential to constantly consider that soil is a complex natural formation, almost always heterogeneous in terms of physical-mechanical properties, with processes that alter soil properties over time. Acknowledging these processes, their spatial distribution, and activity levels could significantly reduce potential damages from these exogenous processes. Referenca: Miladinović, S., Cvetković, V., & Milašinović, S. (2018). Upravlјanje rizicima u kriznim situacijama izazvanim klizištima. Beograd: Kriminalističko-policijska akademija.

ISTORIJSKI RAZVOJ POLICIJSKOG OBRAZOVANJA U SRBIJI (Historical development of police education in Serbia)

U naučnoj monografiji se istražuju koreni razvoja policijskog školstva, istorijski razvoj četiri institucije: Srednja škola unutrašnjih poslova, Viša škola unutrašnjih poslova, Policijska akademija i Kriminalističko-policijska akademija. Poseban osvrt se čini na istorijski razvoj policijskog školstva u periodima pre Prvog svetskog rada, između dva svetska rata i posle Drugog svetskog rata. Imajući u vidu, da su sve četiri institucije nastale posle Drugog svetskog rata, biće izložene istorijske činjenice o nesistemskom vidu školovanja pre Prvog svetskog rata. Dakle, u radu se daje prikaz obučavanja i školovanja policijskih kadrova u Srbiji kroz istoriju, sa želјom da se na taj način prezentuju koreni i tradicija, a imajući u vidu da svaka istorija, pa samim tim i istorija policijskog školstva, daje odgovore na mnogobrojna pitanja sadašnjosti, kao i znanja i iskustvo za izgradnju bolјe budućnosti. Imajući u vidu neospornost uloge i značaj policijskog školstva za svaku policiju, ne treba posebno dokazivati društvenu i naučnu potrebu za istorijskim istraživanjem policijskog obrazovanja u Srbiji. Uvidom u brojne direktne i indirektne izvore o istorijskom razvoju policijskog školstva, lako se može ustanoviti da su proučavanja često bila sporadična i delimična. Stoga, uticaj policijskog školstva sa istorijskog stanovišta na funkcionisanje i razvoj policije se ne može u celosti sagledati i oceniti. Ipak, na osnovu brojne istorijsko arhivske građe, u radu će se dati skroman pokušaj obelodanjivanja određenih istorijskih činjenica o razvoju višeg policijskog školstva sa osvrtom na policijsko školstvo uopšte. Prikuplјanje podataka je ostvareno uvidom u arhive bivše Više škole unutrašnjih poslova, Policijske akademije u Beogradu i Srednje škole unutrašnjih poslova u Sremskoj Kamenici, kao i uvidom u arhivsku građu Kriminalističko-policijske akademije u Zemunu. U monografiji su primenjivane različite naučne metode kao što su: metoda analize sadržaja, komparativna metoda, metoda analize odnosa, kako bi se istražio istorijski razvoj policijskog školstva do prvog svetskog rata, između dva svetska rata i nakon drugog svetskog rata. The scientific monograph explores the roots of the development of police education, focusing on the historical development of four institutions: the High School of Internal Affairs, the Higher School of Internal Affairs, the Police Academy, and the Criminalistic-Police Academy. Special attention is given to the historical development of police education in periods before World War I, between the two world wars, and after World War II. Considering that all four institutions were established after World War II, historical facts about non-systematic forms of education before World War I will also be presented. Therefore, the work provides an overview of the training and education of police personnel in Serbia throughout history, aiming to present the roots and tradition. Given that every history, including the history of police education, provides answers to numerous present-day questions and knowledge and experience for building a better future, the importance of historical research on police education in Serbia is undeniable. Despite sporadic and partial studies, the impact of police education from a historical perspective on the functioning and development of the police cannot be fully understood and assessed. Nevertheless, based on numerous historical archival sources, the work makes a modest attempt to disclose certain historical facts about the development of higher police education with an overview of police education in general. Data collection was achieved through access to the archives of the former Higher School of Internal Affairs, the Police Academy in Belgrade, and the High School of Internal Affairs in Sremska Kamenica, as well as access to the archival material of the Criminalistic-Police Academy in Zemun. Various scientific methods were applied in the monograph, such as content analysis, comparative method, and analysis of relationships, to explore the historical development of police education before World War I, between the two world wars, and after World War II. Referenca: Cvetković, V., Milašinović, S., & Gostimirović, L. (2018). Istorijski razvoj policijskog obrazovanja u Srbiji. Doboj: Visoka poslovna tehnička škola Doboj.